The European Geopolitical Forum / Context / Publications

Next round of gas negotiations to be held on 17 January 2012

Mon, 06 Feb 2012 00:00:00 +0000

ISSUE #1
01/16/2011
The next round of the gas talks between Ukrainian Energy and Coal Industry Minister Yuriy Boyko and Gazprom's CEO Aleksey Miller will be held in Moscow on 17 January. The Ukrainian news and analysis website Lb.ua quoted Miller as telling Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin on 10 January 2012 that in the process of the negotiations, the Ukrainian party was linking a gas price discount to the setting up of a gas transportation consortium between the two countries. According to Miller, if Ukraine purchases 40bn cu.m. of gas, the discount will be 9bn dollars annually. At the same time, the Gazprom CEO said that the Ukrainian gas transportation system is worth 20bn dollars. READ MORE

Ukraine may complete gas talks with Russia in near future. Issue revolves around Ukraine's gas transportation system

Mon, 06 Feb 2012 00:00:00 +0000

ISSUE #2
01/23/2012
On 20 January 2012, Ukrainian Prime Minister Mykola Azarov has said that Ukraine and Russia are nearing the final stage of gas negotiations.
At the same time, he stressed that Ukraine considers the setting up of a trilateral consortium for managing the gas transportation system the only possible option. READ MORE

Ukrainian court to soon receive case against ex-premier over alleged violations by United Energy Systems of Ukraine's corporation

Mon, 06 Feb 2012 00:00:00 +0000

ISSUE #3
01/30/2012
A new criminal case which was launched against former Ukrainian Prime Minister Yuliya Tymoshenko will be submitted to a court in the near future.
The Ukrainian news and analysis website Lb.ua cited Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych as saying in Davos on 27 January 2011 that the criminal cases over the corporation United Energy Systems of Ukraine (UESU), which had been opened against former Prime Minister Yuliya Tymoshenko would be submitted for a court's consideration in the near future. READ MORE

Key points of the EGF Director Dr. Marat Terterov’s interview to the Caucasus Journalists Network on January 23rd 2012

Sun, 05 Feb 2012 00:00:00 +0000

Karabakh conflict

Angela Khachatryan, the Zhamanak (Time), www.1in.am portal (Armenia)
- Mr. Terterov, what effect can the crisis in Europe have on the countries of association partners to the EU, of which Armenia is one?

MT: I think the main point to take here is the question of whether countries in the EU’s Eastern Partnership framework, or those coming into the wider-European Neighbourhood context, are a priority for EU external relations strategies. Clearly, some countries come higher up the EU pegging order than others. This also depends on which EU member states holds important positions in the EU institutions, including the rotational presidency of the Council of the European Union, and the foreign policy strategies which those countries entertain. Clearly, when France holds the presidency, one can assume that greater EU external policy resources will be directed towards the South Bank Mediterranean countries. This is also likely to be the case even more so now with the EU having to show its “interest” in the region in way of developments associated with the Arab Spring. When Poland, for example, holds the presidency, it is likely greater EU foreign policy resources will be directed towards Ukraine and Belarus. READ MORE

EGF Turkey File

Sat, 21 Jan 2012 00:00:00 +0000

Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during December 2011

Key Points:

The TSK mistakenly bombs unarmed Kurdish smugglers near the Iraqi border, adding yet another incident that sets back Turkish-Kurdish relations and possibly fueling further violence.
Military, economic and political ties are severed between France and NATO ally Turkey following the National Assembly’s vote to move an Armenian genocide bill forward.
Turkey’s Central Bank sells off over $1 billion in dollars to combat rising inflation, though by month’s end the rate had surpassed 10%.
Azerbaijan and Turkey agree to a new gas transport and supply deal for the Shah Deniz field, upsetting some in Brussels who feel the new pipeline could undermine the time consuming progress for NABUCCO. READ MORE

EGF Gazprom Monitor

Thu, 19 Jan 2012 00:00:00 +0000

A Snapshot of Key Developments in the External Relations of the Russian Gas Sector
Key points:

Gazprom hasn’t given up on its attempts to break into South-East Asian gas markets. Its proposal for a potential trans-Korean pipeline has found support in both North and South Korea. However, North Korea’s change in leadership casts a shadow of doubt over the situation
Gazprom’s purchase of the remaining 50 percent share in Beltransgaz brought a sigh of relief to European consumers, with transit disputes and Belarusian debts for Russian gas seemingly laid to rest. The purchase is one of several measures designed to bring Russia and Belarus closer together, and demonstrate to Ukraine the potential benefits of selling its gas transportation system to Gazprom
Nord Stream was launched with great fanfare. The launch has a substantial impact on the current transit situation, with Ukraine looking like the loser of the piece as its transit volumes are increasingly likely to fall
Gazprom intensified negotiations with Kiev over the possible sale of Ukraine’s gas transit system. Given the sale of Beltransgaz to Gazprom and the announcement that South Stream will go ahead as planned, there is a fair chance that Kiev will give up shares in its gas transport system
The Turkish national gas pipelines operator, Botaş has refused to renew its 26-year contract to purchase 6 billion cubic metres (bcm) of Russian gas annually, which expired on the 31st of December 2011. Gazprom’s subsequent attempts to circumvent the national supplier have failed: The Turkish Ministry of Energy has refused applications by 26 companies for licences to import Russian gas
PGNiG has filed an arbitration case against Gazprom for lower gas prices and greater spot-price element in contracts. Even if the Polish company ultimately succeeds in its aim, the process could drag on for months
Gazprom plans to pay record dividends, estimated to be 200bn Roubles. However, shareholders should not expect such generosity from Gazprom next year: The size of Gazprom’s declared investment programme precludes similar profits next year.