The European Geopolitical Forum / Context / Publications

Strait of Hormuz in the Shadow of War

Fri, 27 Mar 2026 00:00:00 +0000

By Aytaс MAHAMMADOVA, Energy Security Expert affiliated with the Caspian-Alpine Society

The geopolitical order of the Middle East experienced a major shock when the United States and Israel carried out coordinated airstrikes against Iran. The operation resulted in the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei together with several senior political and military officials. The strikes were followed by a rapid response from the remaining Iranian leadership that targeted one of the most sensitive nodes of the global economy. After the initial phase, attention quickly shifted to the Strait of Hormuz. Within days a scenario that had long existed mainly in strategic assessments began to unfold in practice as Iran moved to restrict navigation through the world’s most important maritime oil corridor, generating immediate turbulence in global energy markets and financial systems. READ MORE

European Union and Azerbaijan Deepen Strategic Cooperation

Fri, 27 Mar 2026 00:00:00 +0000

By Vasif HUSEYNOV, PhD, Head of Department, AIR Center, Adjunct Lecturer, ADA and Khazar Universities, Baku

On March 11, European Council President António Costa held talks in Baku with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev. The visit came at a time of heightened geopolitical uncertainty across Europe’s eastern neighbourhood amid Russia’s war against Ukraine and the Middle East, underscoring the growing importance of EU–Azerbaijan relations. The leaders used the occasion to reaffirm their commitment to strengthening cooperation across a broad agenda ranging from energy and connectivity to security and economic development. The two presidents issued a joint press statement following the meeting, emphasizing “the strategic importance of the Azerbaijan–EU partnership” and expressing their determination to deepen political dialogue and practical cooperation. Both sides aim to build on the “positive momentum of recent high-level meetings” and expand cooperation in areas such as security, energy, and transport. The document stressed that the partnership contributes to “peace, stability, connectivity and sustainable development in the wider Black Sea, South Caucasus and Central Asia regions”. READ MORE

Southern Branch of Middle Corridor Gains Eurasian Connectivity Momentum

Thu, 19 Mar 2026 00:00:00 +0000

By Vusal GULIYEV, Leading Advisor at the Baku-based Center of Analysis of International Relations (AIR Center)

On February 10, railway officials from Azerbaijan, Georgia, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan convened in Ashgabat to strengthen cooperation and accelerate the development of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, commonly known as the Middle Corridor. Development of the Middle Corridor continues to gain momentum as Eurasian states seek faster, more geopolitically resilient trade routes linking Asia and Europe. The southern branch of the corridor stretches from the People’s Republic of China (PRC) through Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan to the Caspian Sea, and onward via Azerbaijan and Georgia to Türkiye and European markets. This section has emerged as an increasingly important segment of the network. As regional connectivity initiatives accelerate, the southern branch is gradually becoming a key component of the evolving Eurasian transport architecture READ MORE

Expanding Global Jihadi Footprint: Islamic State and al Qaeda in South Asia and West Africa

Thu, 19 Mar 2026 00:00:00 +0000

By Bibhu Prasad ROUTRAY, PhD, Director & Shanthie Mariet D’SOUZA, PhD, founder & president, Mantraya Institute for Strategic Studies (MISS)

As the war in Iran and Ukraine rages, together with China’s continued expansion, noticeably in the South China Sea but also in Myanmar/Burma, major global players are preoccupied to the extent that non-state extremist actors have virtually free rein to expand. The global terror groups Islamic State and al Qaeda sense a window of opportunity to consolidate in their current strongholds and push beyond. Much of this organisational expansion and accompanying violence is taking place in Asia and West Africa. However, if the wars drag on, limiting security responses of the major nations to the evolving threats, such violence can potentially spread to Europe and even the United States. READ MORE

The Caucasus Front: Azerbaijan and Iran in the Expanding Gulf War

Thu, 19 Mar 2026 00:00:00 +0000

By Fuad SHAHBAZOV, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

On March 5, 2026, two drones launched by Iran struck Azerbaijan’s Nakhchivan exclave, damaging Nakhchivan International Airport and a nearby school building while injuring several bystanders. The South Caucasus, particularly Azerbaijan and Iran’s border regions, have recently experienced unprecedented escalation following the U.S.-Israeli military operation against Iran, dubbed “Operation Epic Fury.” Although Azerbaijan has remained neutral since the war’s onset, Baku has voiced growing concerns about the conflict’s potential repercussions for the wider region. Despite its formal neutrality, Baku’s long-standing partnership with Tel Aviv and its Charter on Strategic Partnership with Washington have complicated its diplomatic manoeuvring, particularly amid frequent criticism from Iran and Turkey. READ MORE

The South Caucasus Caught between Two Wars

Thu, 19 Mar 2026 00:00:00 +0000

By Vasif HUSEYNOV, PhD, Head of Department, AIR Center, Adjunct Lecturer, ADA and Khazar Universities, Baku

The South Caucasus managed the geopolitical rivalries surrounding it remarkably well in 2025. Despite intensifying global competition and conflicts raging beyond its borders, the region avoided major military escalation and even made notable progress toward stability. For the first time in more than three decades, there were no deadly interstate clashes among the three South Caucasus countries. Instead, pragmatic diplomacy, economic connectivity projects, and cautious foreign policies helped prevent regional tensions from spiralling into violence. Yet only a few months later, this fragile stability is now under serious strain as the region finds itself geographically caught between two most dangerous conflicts in the world. READ MORE

Who Sets the Rules of Eurasian Connectivity?

Thu, 19 Mar 2026 00:00:00 +0000

By Elkhan NURIYEV, PhD, Senior Fellow at the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation

As competition over trade corridors intensifies across Eurasia, the South Caucasus and Central Asia are becoming pivotal arenas where the governance of regional connectivity is increasingly contested. In this evolving landscape, proposals emerging from the Armenia–Azerbaijan normalization process highlight a broader shift: connectivity is no longer just about building railways and highways — it is about regulatory alignment, operational standards, and political credibility. One such proposal is the “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity” (TRIPP), formally referenced in the U.S.-brokered Armenia–Azerbaijan peace agreement witnessed by President Donald Trump. It envisions a transit corridor linking Azerbaijan with its Nakhchivan exclave through Armenian territory as part of a post-conflict settlement framework. While not a megaproject in financial terms, the corridor carries strategic significance. Properly structured, it could turn diplomatic normalization into economic interdependence — linking political progress to customs harmonization, transit guarantees, and private-sector participation. READ MORE

Early Perspectives on How War in Iran Might Spillover in the South Caucasus

Thu, 19 Mar 2026 00:00:00 +0000

On March 6, 2026, in an exclusive interview with Nicolas Tavitian for “Crossroads- Belgahay”, Dr Marat Terterov, Founder and Director of the Brussels Energy Club, and Co-founder of the European Geopolitical Forum, and Dr. George Vlad Niculescu, Head of Research of the European Geopolitical Forum shared their insights on the potential security challenges for the South Caucasus stemming from the ongoing war between Iran, the United States, and Israel. The conversation explored how escalating tensions in the Middle East could affect regional stability, energy corridors, geopolitical alliances, and the security landscape surrounding Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia. While cooperation with the EU might be helpful to preventing and mitigating likely collateral damages from the war -such as massive refugees flows or disruptions to regional trade and energy corridors- neither the EU nor the Caucasian countries would have a major role to play in shaping the military operations and the outcomes of this war. The speakers recommended that the three Caucasian states should practice geopolitical hedging, military restraint, and support de-escalation as wise and prudent policy steps to avoiding the spillover of war into their region.

President Trump’s Middle East Peace Plan: Possible Implications for Armenia