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The European Geopolitical Forum

Wednesday 19 June 2013

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Publication
EGF Gazprom Monitor  PDF  (117 Kb)

A Snapshot of Key Developments in the External Relations of the Russian Gas Sector
By Jack Sharples, EGF Associate Researcher on the external dimensions of Russian gas

Key points:

  • The tortuous legal wrangling between Gazprom, the Lithuanian government, and Lithuania’s main gas utility, Lietuvos Dujos, continues; Gazprom set to finalise its bid for Greece’s gas distribution system operator, DEPA; Gazprom could construct Baltic LNG terminal
  • Gazprom rejects an invitation to attend a high level ministerial seminar in Brussels on Ukraine’s energy market, which was jointly organised by the European Commission and the Ukrainian energy ministry; Ukraine could cede control over its gas transit pipelines in exchange for guaranteed transit and a gas price discount
  • The construction of South Stream in Serbia will begin in late 2013 according to Srbijagas; South Stream Chief Exec, Marcel Kramer, confirms that South Stream is on schedule for financing in early 2014 and construction of the first line in 2015
  • Gazprom and CNPC aim to sign a gas supply contract by the end of 2013; Gazprom could lose its export monopoly in the Asia-Pacific region; freight deliveries from Northern Russia to China via the Northern Sea Route demonstrate the possibilities of LNG exports from Northern Russian to the Asia-Pacific region.
  • Rosneft steps up the pressure on Gazprom with its buyout of Itera.
READ MORE

  • EGF Editorial  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 05.06.2013  |  External Relations
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EGF Gazprom Monitor  PDF  (130 Kb)

A Snapshot of Key Developments in the External Relations of the Russian Gas Sector
By Jack Sharples, EGF Associate Researcher on the external dimensions of Russian gas

Key points:

  • Negotiations between Russia and Lithuania over their gas relationship and the unbundling over LietuvosDujos continue; Polish Treasury Minister and PGNiG Chief Executive are sacked as a result of a EuRoPolGaz-Gazprom agreement to investigate the possible expansion of the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline
  • Gazprom boycotts a high-level roundtable held by Ukrainian and EU representatives on the future management and development of Ukraine’s gas transport system, and warns European energy companies against reselling Russian gas back to Ukraine, as Ukraine continues to seek alternatives to Russian gas imports
  • Gazprom and Gasunie agree to investigate the possibility of expanding the Nord Stream gas pipeline, with Gazprom eyeing an increase in gas exports to the British market, despite the current under-utilisationof the existing Nord Stream pipeline
  • Gazprom announces that the spatial planning and Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) reports for South Stream in Slovenia are almost complete and that construction could begin next year; Bulgarian government announces a review of South Stream, but pledges to continue with the project; Construction of the Serbian section of South Stream could start by the end of 2013, rather than in 2014 as planned
  • Gazprom announces its 2012 financial results; Rosneft continues to challenge Gazprom in the sphere of gas exports by announcing talks with ExxonMobil over the construction of an LNG export terminal in Russia’s Far East; Beltransgaz to be renamed Gazprom Transgaz Belarus to reflect Gazprom’s takeover
READ MORE

  • EGF Editorial  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 16.05.2013  |  External Relations
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EGF Gazprom Monitor  PDF  (120 Kb)

A Snapshot of Key Developments in the External Relations of the Russian Gas Sector
By Jack Sharples, EGF Associate Researcher on the external dimensions of Russian gas

Key points:

  • Lietuvos Dujos confirms its decision to spin off its gas transport business by the 31st of July 2013, with Gazprom and E.On expected to sell their stakes in the Lithuanian gas utility by October 2014; Gazprom agrees a deal with the Czech-based MND Group to construct a new underground gas storage facility in the Czech Republic by 2016; Gazprom signs a long-term gas supply contract with Serbia; Gazprom denies reports that it has offered to fund the restructuring of Cypriot banks in exchange for gas exploration rights in Cyprus’ exclusive economic zone
  • Gazprom is unlikely to offer significant gas price cuts to Ukraine, as the company dismisses Ukrainian plans to import more gas from other European sources; The European Commission supports the idea of a trilateral consortium including Naftogaz, Gazprom, and European energy companies to manage Ukraine’s gas transport system
  • Nord Stream has operated at just 27 percent of its capacity since the launch of the second string in October 2012
  • Gazprom is reportedly considering constructing a spur of South Stream to Greece, but stands by its decision to remove the Greece-Italy connection from the project. The fate of South Stream’s spur to Greece may well be decided by the outcome of the privatisation of Greece’s national gas utility, DEPA, in which Gazprom is considering bidding for a stake
  • Gazprom and the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) sign a Memorandum of Understanding on gas supplies via the Eastern route, and hope to sign a gas supply contract by the end of 2013
  • Russia’s Energy Ministry supports proposals for the export of LNG by Novatek and Rosneft to the Asia-Pacific region, but insists that Gazprom retains its monopoly on gas exports to Europe; Gazprom to complete its purchase of Kyrgyzstan’s national gas system by the end of March.
READ MORE

  • EGF Editorial  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 09.04.2013  |  External Relations
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EGF Gazprom Monitor  PDF  (592 Kb)

A Snapshot of Key Developments in the External Relations of the Russian Gas Sector
by Jack Sharples, EGF Associate Researcher on the external dimensions of Russian gas

Key points:

  • Gazprom Gazprom expects gas prices for its European exports to fall by an average of 14 percent in 2013, as it prepares to grant $4.7bn in price discounts over the next year.
  • Ukrainian wholesale gas importer Naftogaz refuses to pay a $7bn bill from Gazprom for unused gas in 2012, and challenges the take or pay terms of the Naftogaz-Gazprom contract.
  • Nord Stream AG receives a construction permit for the pipeline’s final onshore German section, although plans for Nord Stream’s expansion are already facing delays.
  • Gazprom increases its estimates of the cost of South Stream, with plans for extra investment in the pipeline’s onshore Russian section.
  • Gazprom takes a final investment decision on its Vladivostok LNG terminal, with the Asia-Pacific region being the target market, while yet another meeting with China’s CNPC concludes without the announcement of concrete progress towards finalising Russian gas supplies to China.
  • Gazprom’s export monopoly comes under further pressure, as Rosneft President, Igor Sechin, calls for the liberalisation of Russia’s gas exports.
  • Celebrations of Gazprom’s 20th anniversary are overshadowed by the passing of its former-Chairman, Rem Vyakhirev.
READ MORE

  • EGF Editorial  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 04.03.2013  |  External Relations
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EGF Gazprom Monitor  PDF  (640 Kb)

A Snapshot of Key Developments in the External Relations of the Russian Gas Sector
by Jack Sharples, EGF Associate Researcher on the external dimensions of Russian gas

Key points:

  • Gazprom is under pressure from all sides. European energy companies request further gas price discounts, export volumes fell in 2012 and are expected to remain weak in 2013, PM Medvedev suggests that Gazprom’s export monopoly could be revoked, and Gazprom faces criticism from Europe and the United States over its bid for Greece’s state-owned gas utility, DEPA.
  • Gazprom slaps Naftogaz with a $7bn bill for failing to purchase sufficient amounts of gas in 2012.
  • The Czech section of Nord Steam, Gazelle, is launched as Gazprom CEO, Alexei Miller, declares an expansion of Nord Stream to be ‘feasible’ despite the pipeline operating at well below capacity since its launch
  • Gazprom and the Croatian State-owned energy company, Plinacro, to set up a joint venture in mid-2013 for the construction of a spur from South Stream into Croatia, while Serbia is set to grant South Stream ‘national status’
  • Gazprom signs an agreement with Novatek to produce LNG on the Yamal Peninsula, with Asia the predicted export destination
  • Gazprom lobbies the Russian government for Shtokman tax breaks as the Russian government considers revoking the Gazprom-Rosneft monopoly on offshore gas and oil production in Russia
READ MORE

  • EGF Editorial  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 06.02.2013  |  External Relations
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EGF Gazprom Monitor  PDF  (119 Kb)

A Snapshot of Key Developments in the External Relations of the Russian Gas Sector
By Jack Sharples, EGF Associate Researcher on the external dimensions of Russian gas

Key points:

  • Reports claim that Gazprom plans lower European gas export prices for 2013 in a bid to compete with spot price contracts, while Russian officials continue to press for exemptions from the Third Energy Package for Nord Stream and South Stream
  • Sources report that Gazprom could lower its gas export price for Ukraine for 2013 from the predicted $421 per thousand cubic metres to $352, as Ukrainian President, Viktor Yanukovich, announces a last-minute postponement of his meeting with Russian President, Vladimir Putin, in Moscow to discuss Russian-Ukrainian energy relations
  • Gazprom holds a ceremony to mark the start of the construction of South Stream, but the EU remains sceptical about the implementation of the project due to the lack of necessary assessments and permits
  • The Estonian government refuses permission for Nord Stream AG to conduct research in Estonia’s territorial waters, as part of plans for Nord Stream’s proposed expansion
  • Gazprom’s second-largest European customer, Turkey, proposes increasing its Russian gas imports by 3 bcm ‘in the near future’
  • Gazprom restarts high-level talks with the Chinese National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) over Russian gas deliveries to China, with the two sides united by a focus on the Altai pipeline, but divided over gas prices
  • Two months after missing out to Rosneft on a lucrative deal to supply gas to Russian electricity utility, Inter RAO, Novatek signs a $4bn deal to supply 27 bcm to Moscow-based electricity generator, Mosenergo, as Gazprom loses more of the domestic Russian gas market
READ MORE

  • EGF Editorial  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 31.12.2012  |  External Relations
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EGF Gazprom Monitor  PDF  (106 Kb)

A Snapshot of Key Developments in the External Relations of the Russian Gas Sector
By Jack Sharples, EGF Associate Researcher on the external dimensions of Russian gas

Key points:

  • Gazprom announces an agreement with Poland’s PGNiG to adjust gas prices and signs an asset-swap deal with BASFT Wintershall, but remains under pressure in Europe due to falling export volumes and the EU antimonopoly investigation
  • Ukraine continues to press for reduced imports of Russian gas and receives first deliveries from RWE
  • Gazprom appears set to expand its underground gas storage facilities and gas transmission capacity in Belarus
  • Slovenia and Bulgaria confirm their final investment decisions for the South Stream project, as Gazprom’s partners also take the final investment decision on the offshore section, while Gazprom signs a new gas supply contract with Bulgargaz
  • Turkish regulators approve Gazprom’s new long-term supply contracts with private Turkish energy companies
  • Gazprom demonstrates the potential for shipping LNG from Europe to Japan as it charters the first LNG supertanker to traverse the Arctic during winter
  • Novatek acquires 49 percent of Northgas, with Gazprom retaining its 51 percent stake in the company
READ MORE

  • EGF Editorial  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 04.12.2012  |  External Relations
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EGF Gazprom Monitor  PDF  (128 Kb)

A Snapshot of Key Developments in the External Relations of the Russian Gas Sector
By Jack Sharples, EGF Associate Researcher on the external dimensions of Russian gas

Key points:

  • Lithuania files a €1.5bn ($2bn) lawsuit against Gazprom, claiming the Russian company has abused its position as monopoly gas exporter to Lithuania since 2004
  • RWE Transgas wins a landmark case against Gazprom, as it refuses to pay fines for breaking the ‘take-or-pay’ clauses in its gas supply contract
  • Naftogaz reaches an agreement with Germany’s RWE Trading for trial gas supplies via Poland
  • Gazprom officially launches the second line of Nord Stream, and announces plans for two additional lines
  • South Stream gets the green light to be realised on the territories of Serbia and Hungary, with similar developments expected in relation to Bulgaria and Slovenia in November
  • Gazprom confirms the development of the Chayandinskoe gas field and related pipeline infrastructure as part of its plan to increase LNG exports to the Asia-Pacific region
  • Gazprom signs a contract for LNG supplies to India and announces an increase in its LNG supplies to South Korea
  • Gazprom officially launches gas production at the Bovanenkovo gas field, as part of its Yamal Megaproject
  • Rosneft cements its role in Russia’s gas sector, but supports Gazprom’s continued export monopoly
READ MORE

  • EGF Editorial  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 15.11.2012  |  External Relations
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EGF Gazprom Monitor  PDF  (120 Kb)

A Snapshot of Key Developments in the External Relations of the Russian Gas Sector for September 2012
By Jack Sharples, EGF Associate Researcher on the external dimensions of Russian gas

Key points:

  • The European Commission launches an antitrust investigation of Gazprom, as the company is suspected of imposing unfair prices in Central and Eastern Europe. Gazprom claims innocence, but a Presidential Decree preventing Russian strategic companies (such as Gazprom) from disclosing information to foreign investigators without Russian government permission suggests that Moscow is concerned about the investigation.
  • President Putin claims that the second line of Nord Stream is to be launched on 8 October, although this is yet to be confirmed by Nord Stream AG, Gazprom, or the Russian Energy Ministry.
  • South Stream AG considers tenders for steel pipes for South Stream, as Gazprom vows to continue with the project despite the launching of the antitrust investigation of Gazprom by the European Commission.
  • Gazprom hosts a meeting with the Chinese National Petroleum Corporation and claims ‘a step forward’ in long-running negotiations, although sources suggest significant disagreements remain between the two parties.
  • As Ukraine seeks lower gas purchases (27 bcm) from Russia in 2012, a new winter dispute cannot be ruled out.
  • Gazprom indefinitely suspends the Shtokman project, but signs a long-term cooperation agreement with Rosneft for the development of Russia’s continental shelf.
  • Gazprom and Japan’s Agency for Natural Resources and Energy sign a Memorandum on the Vladivostok LNG project – with a final investment decision expected in early 2013.
READ MORE

  • EGF Editorial  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 06.10.2012  |  External Relations
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EGF Gazprom Monitor  PDF  (145 Kb)

A Snapshot of Key Developments in the External Relations of the Russian Gas Sector for August 2012
By Jack Sharples, EGF Associate Researcher on the external dimensions of Russian gas

Key points:

  • Gazprom and the Lithuanian Government both claim victory following the Stockholm Chamber of Commerce Arbitration Institute ruling over Lietuvos Dujos
  • Gazprom signs contracts with four Turkish energy companies to supply 6 bcm of Russian gas from January 2013, replacing the volumes given up by Turkish state energy company, Botaş, in October 2011
  • Nord Stream AG completes the welding of the second string of Nord Stream pipeline and requests permission to conduct research in Estonian territorial waters as part of plans for the expansion of the Nord Stream pipeline
  • South Stream could be re-routed via Croatia, bypassing Hungary
  • Putin and Yanukovych meet in Sochi, with Ukraine planning to reduce its Russian gas imports and hoping for an (unlikely) gas price discount
  • Gazprom CEO, Alexei Miller, held meetings in Belarus, discussed investments in the gas transmission system of Beltransgaz and the expansion of natural gas as a motor fuel in Belarus
  • Statoil withdraws from the Shtokman project, ceding its stake to Gazprom – Will Total follow suit?
  • Novatek announces a breakthrough deal to supply gas to German utility company EnBW, as E.On Russia confirms that it will buy gas for its power stations from Novatek, not Gazprom, from 2013
READ MORE

  • EGF Editorial  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 14.09.2012  |  External Relations
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Dr. Marat Terterov spoke on Cyprus at the European Parliament on March 27, 2013.

 

Dr. Marat Terterov, Director of the European Geopolitical Forum (EGF), attended the Pan-Armenian Conference of Political Scientists and International Relations Experts in Yerevan (Armenia) from 19-23 November 2012. There he presented a briefing on “Can economic stimulus help eliminate the labyrinth in the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict?” building upon the research paper recently published by EGF (see EGF publications). During the same trip to Armenia he gave an interview to "Hayern Aysor", a local news agency, and made a presentation on “NATO and the Situation in the Middle East” within the framework of the educational programme of the “Noravank” Foundation. Click here to read the interview and click here to watch the video of his presentation (in Russian).

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