The European Geopolitical Forum / Forum http://gpf-europe.com en http://backend.userland.com/rss2 Sat, 19 May 2012 09:53:31 +0000 North Africa after the Arab Spring Political Outlook for Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya and Egypt

Key points:
  • Morocco’s monarchy seems to have survived the wind of change blowing on Arab countries last year and is currently trying to hold on to its power by allowing reforms that partly reduce its absolute authority.
  • The adoption of a new constitution and the victory of moderate and nationalist Islamic parties are signs that mark Morocco’s gradual progress towards the demands of protesters who have taken the streets last year.
  • However, civil society is not yet a primary actor in Moroccan politics and a widespread sense of communalism is still missing.
  • Tensions are still present in Morocco, due to the unresponsiveness of the central government regarding the high levels of unemployment, structural corruption and deficiencies in welfare and health systems.
  • Morocco has been praised by the international community for its counter-terrorism efforts, although major security risks stem from the unresolved situation of West Sahara. High unemployment and persisting poverty, however, continue to ensure fertile grounds for terrorist recruiters.
  • New economic deals with the EU are expected to have a positive impact on the Moroccan economy, which is of great interest for foreign direct investors.
    • READ MORE


More...]]> Tue, 08 May 2012 06:09:00 +0000 Kofi Annan’s Syrian mission Mikhail Roshchin

Former United Nations Secretary General Kofi Annan appears to have made some diplomatic strides in efforts to mediate the violent uprising in Syria. And Annan’s mission also has gained Russian support, which is a crucial key to an international consensus on how best to resolve the Syrian conflict. We are joined on the line with Mikhail Roshchin, a Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of Oriental Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences. READ MORE


More...]]> Sat, 31 Mar 2012 05:58:00 +0000 Syria denies responsibility for deaths of 2 Western journalists Mikhail Roshchin

Syria has officially said it is not responsible for the deaths of 2 Western journalists who snuck into Syria to cover the crisis going on there. Yesterday we’ve received news that American journalists Marie Colvin and French photo journalist Remi Ochlik were killed when the home they were staying in was shelled. We are joined now to discuss this with Mikhail Roshchin, Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences. READ MORE



More...]]> Fri, 30 Mar 2012 03:01:00 +0000 EGF Middle East Briefing - Egypt’s New Political Landscape: between Democratization and Old Legacies Claudia Nocente
EGF Researcher, Global Security

Egypt’s Islamic state on the horizon

Egypt is once again in the headlines. The results of the first, allegedly, free elections after the ousting of Hosni Mubarak as the Egyptian president are causing widespread concern, especially in the West, about the country’s process towards democratization. Many fear that the legacy of the former political establishment will haunt the country for many years to come. Egyptians have been denied any aspect of a wealthy social and political life and are now concerned about the fruits of their courageous actions and the new seeds last year’s events have implanted. What will Egypt look like a year from now? Will it end up embracing a hardline Islamist direction in the administration of political power? READ MORE


More...]]> Thu, 22 Mar 2012 20:28:00 +0000 Post-Revolution Tunisia: Still Waiting for Economic Recovery by Naim AmeurExpert on political transition in Tunisia and the Maghreb

One year after the Jasmine Revolution of January 14, 2011, Tunisia has successfully advanced in its democratic transition and political reform process. The election of the National Constituent Assembly (NCA) held on October 23, 2011 was well organised, and for the first time in history, it was fair. Al-Nahdha (which means “renaissance” in Arabic), a moderate Islamic party, won 41 per cent of the NCA seats. READ MORE


More...]]> Thu, 08 Mar 2012 17:15:00 +0000 Letter from Istanbul, by EGF International Expert on Energy Security, Mehmet Oguctu by Mehmet Öğütçü

In his “Letter from Istanbul”, EGF International Expert on Energy Security, Mehmet Oguctu, argues that for the first time in several generations, there is a credible belief within Turkey that with the right policies, institutions and leadership, the country could well sit on the management board of the new world order by 2023, the centenary year of the founding of the modern Turkish state. Click here to read Mehmet Ogutcu’s letter


More...]]> Thu, 08 Mar 2012 08:14:00 +0000 Whither the Euro-Atlantic security? By George Niculescu,
Director of Programs, Centre for East European and Asian Studies Bucharest,
Affiliated Expert, European Geopolitical Forum Brussels

Historically, the roots of the phrase "Euro-Atlantic security" stem from the revolutionary shift towards cooperative relations between NATO and its former adversaries from the Warsaw Treaty Organization promoted through the North Atlantic Cooperation Council and the Partnership for Peace (PfP). From an institutional point of view, since 1997, the Euro- Atlantic security is tightly linked with the Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council (EAPC) which has been created jointly by the NATO members and PfP countries (including Russia, Ukraine, and the other independent republics emerging from the dissolution of the former Soviet Union) as a forum enabling an "expanded political dimension of partnership and practical cooperation under the PfP" [Basic Document of the EAPC]. The EAPC was meant to complement the respective activities of the OSCE, the European Union, and the Council of Europe. READ MORE


More...]]> Thu, 08 Mar 2012 08:13:00 +0000 Turkey and Russia in the Black Sea Region: Dynamics of Cooperation and Conflict

by Dr. Oktay Tanrisever

This policy brief examines the sources and limitations of Turkey’s relations with Russia since 2000 as well as the implications of Turkey’s lack of a clear vision for the Black Sea region for the future of its bilateral relations with Russia and the other international, regional and local actors in the Black Sea region. READ MORE


More...]]> Thu, 08 Mar 2012 08:12:00 +0000 Muslim Brotherhood set to dominate Egypt's Parliament In a recent interview for "The Voice of Russia", EGF Expert on Radical Islamic Movements, Mikhail Roshchin, explained the political dynamics emerging between Islamist and secular political parties in Egypt following recent parliamentary elections. His key message for all stakeholders engaged in the formation of new governance institutions in Egypt was that the Muslim Brotherhood, which now forms the largest political bloc in Egypt's new parliament, is more likely to broker political deals with secular parties rather than develop any sense of "ideological alliances" with other, more radical, Islamist factions. This will most likely remove the concerns over "new shades of green" emerging in the ensuing Egyptian political landscape and lead to further fragmentation of the political environment in advance of the country's looming presidential elections, which are currently scheduled for June 2012. Click HERE for the entire interview.
 



swfobject.embedSWF( "/bitrix/templates/egf/flash/jw_mp3_player/mp3player.swf", "audio_player1", "240", "20", "8", "/bitrix/templates/egf/js/swfobject2/expressInstall.swf", {"file": "/upload/multimedia/crystal_roschin_011312.mp3", "title": "Muslim Brotherhood set to dominate Egypt's Parliament", "backcolor" : "0x717171", "frontcolor" :"0xd8d8d8", "lightcolor" : "0xf26532", "displayheight" : "0", "showeq" : "0", "autostart" : false, "sid" : "1"}, {"quality": "high", "wmode": "transparent"} );
More...]]> Thu, 08 Mar 2012 07:58:00 +0000 Turkey and Russia in the Black Sea Region: Dynamics of Cooperation and Conflict

by Dr. Oktay Tanrisever

This policy brief examines the sources and limitations of Turkey’s relations with Russia since 2000 as well as the implications of Turkey’s lack of a clear vision for the Black Sea region for the future of its bilateral relations with Russia and the other international, regional and local actors in the Black Sea region. READ MORE


More...]]> Thu, 08 Mar 2012 07:51:00 +0000