Publications
Türkiye’s Policy in the South Caucasus: Navigating Normalization Efforts Amid Ankara’s “Azerbaijan First” Policy  By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Senior Research Fellow at the APRI Armenia
The Second Nagorno-Karabakh War in 2020 and ensuing geopolitical developments revealed the paradoxes behind Türkiye’s motivations in the South Caucasus. This report examines the main directions of Türkiye’s foreign policy in the region, building on insights from desktop research, 18 interviews, and other convening opportunities.
Key findings:
- The importance of the South Caucasus for Türkiye is underestimated. The region has strong significance for Ankara from both a geopolitical and geoeconomic perspective.
- Türkiye’s policy in the South Caucasus is, and will likely remain, based on its strategic alliance with Azerbaijan and can be articulated as an “Azerbaijan first” policy.
- Azerbaijan–Türkiye ties consist of heavy interdependencies in many fields, from political to social and economic, rather than a “big brother/small brother” dynamic. If land access from Azerbaijan to Nakhijevan—and then directly to Türkiye—via Armenia’s Syunik region is established, Türkiye may lose any incentive to continue normalization and open borders with Armenia.
- Türkiye sees Russia as “an unavoidable evil” that will remain a constant factor in South Caucasus geopolitics, and Ankara aims to manage its relationship with Moscow, establish a Russia–Türkiye condominium, and substantially limit the presence and influence of the US, the EU, and NATO in the region. READ MORE
Publications
High Stakes in India’s Refusal to Send Former Bangladesh PM to Trial  By Shanthie Mariet D’SOUZA, PhD, founder & president, Mantraya Institute for Strategic Studies (MISS)
A carefully worded extradition treaty means New Delhi can hedge its bets, but it should be prepared for blowback.
"This is quite a game, politics. There are no permanent enemies, and no permanent friends, only permanent interests.” On the face of it, this adage is being turned on its head by New Delhi, which has ignored Dhaka’s December 2024 request to extradite former Bangladesh prime minister Sheikh Hasina and former home minister Asaduzzaman Khan Kamal. However, it’s not just friendship with the former prime minister that could be shaping India’s current policy towards Dhaka. As bilateral relations have dived in recent months, New Delhi could be relying on Hasina to reverse-engineer Bangladeshi politics that have slipped out of India’s sphere of influence. That strategy, however, is fraught with risks. Not only might the outcome be counterproductive, but it also raises questions about policy towards its neighbourhood, where New Delhi has constantly struggled to find a friendly foothold despite its neighbourhood first policy. READ MORE
Publications
Modi Courts Putin with an Eye on Trump’s Disapproval By Shanthie Mariet D’SOUZA, PhD, founder & president, Mantraya Institute for Strategic Studies (MISS)
Strategic autonomy worked when Washington was indulgent. Now India must choose what matters more.
It may be no more than an annual ritual: the Indian Prime Minister and the Russian President meeting each other alternately in either country. However, the current geopolitical churn creates a special interest in Vladimir Putin’s impending visit to India, tentatively planned for the first week of December 2025, to attend the 23rd India-Russia Summit. He is expected to devote a large part of his meeting with Narendra Modi to finding ways to keep the strategic relationship alive amid New Delhi’s continuing attempts to arrive at a compromise trade deal with Donald Trump’s America. Unlike Putin’s India visit in 2021, which was a quieter affair, New Delhi is now laying out the trappings to greet the Russian President. Although the visit may not witness the grand optics mostly reserved for US leaders, a slew of preparatory visits by senior officials from either side are underway to make Putin’s official trip appear out of the ordinary. READ MORE
Publications
Will a Trade Deal Repair India-US Ties? By Shanthie Mariet D’SOUZA, PhD, founder & president, Mantraya Institute for Strategic Studies (MISS)
Existential differences and longstanding distrust make the current normalisation of relations deeply unstable.
New Delhi’s optimism about Trump’s return has given way to punitive tariffs, stalled negotiations, and diplomatic drift.
For the past several months, Indian negotiators have been trying, albeit unsuccessfully, to finalise a trade deal with the United States. On several occasions, negotiators, including India’s commerce minister and its chief economic adviser, have hinted at an impending breakthrough. Advanced-stage negotiations have been cited, or even an “intuition” that the bilateral trade agreement could be signed before 30 November, and that it would lower the punitive 50% tariff imposed by the Trump administration on Indian imports to about 10-15%. While “hope still floats” in New Delhi, there is an overall assessment that India-US relations are in a downward spiral and will struggle to recover. The non-conclusion of the trade deal is an unexpected development for the government in New Delhi, which seemed to have preferred the return of a Republican administration in Washington, one that doesn’t make human rights, religious and press freedoms important pillars of its foreign policy. However, after taking office, Trump unveiled a vastly different India policy that essentially wipes out the fond memories of his first term. READ MORE
Publications
Is the India–China détente real? By Shanthie Mariet D’SOUZA, PhD, founder & president, Mantraya Institute for Strategic Studies (MISS)
Existential differences and longstanding distrust make the current normalisation of relations deeply unstable.
This week (editor’s note: i.e. October 24- 28, 2025), India’s private airline Indigo flew one of its A320 planes from Kolkata to Guangzhou. It was the first direct flight from India to China in five years, following its halt during the Covid-19 pandemic and the souring of relations between the two neighbours in 2020 amid the border standoff that extended the freeze. In November, more flights, including Chinese carriers, will take to the sky, connecting New Delhi with Chinese cities. The resumption of direct air services is part of the increasing number of confidence-building measures undertaken by both countries to move past a history of distrust and adversarial relations. A détente is seemingly underway. However, on closer examination, the embrace appears more cautious and fragile. In recent months, both sides have unveiled more confidence-building measures. READ MORE
|
|
