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The European Geopolitical Forum

Sunday 5 September 2010

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The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation: The Tashkent Summit Generates More Questions than Answers  PDF  (275 Kb) Members only


EGF Editorial

On June 11-12 2010 the member countries of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) held their annual Summit in Tashkent, Uzbekistan, under the auspices of the (rotational) Uzbek presidency. The previous SCO Summit was held in 2009 in Yekaterinburg, Russia, where the agenda of the member states was dominated by the search for the right exit strategies out of the global economic-financial crisis, particularly those that would serve to minimise its nefarious consequences upon SCO members. In Tashkent, the agenda of SCO member country leaders was dominated by the following issues:

• Enhancement of regional stability and security
• Coordination of the intergovernmental struggle with international terrorism, extremism and separatism
• Contemporary problems relating to the above, including ongoing crisis in Afghanistan (a regional thorn for all of the SCO members) and the fallout of the political-security crisis in Kyrgyzstan
• Coordination of national and intergovernmental efforts to counter organised crime and narco-trafficking. READ MORE

  • EGF Editorial  |  Date: 29.08.2010  |  Published on EGF: 29.08.2010  |  External Relations
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EGF Forum View: Considering Greece as an Alternative Energy Corridor  PDF  (99 Kb) Members only

 
August 2010
Marco Pantelakis
EGF Eurasia Energy Analyst
 
Greece Vs Turkey

Over the last decade, two energy rings have been forming in the Balkan/Caspian oil and gas pipeline/energy supply route context, first in Turkey and then in Greece. As a result, both countries have been elevated to the role of strategic energy corridor territories, linking the energy-rich Caspian region with Europe. Both Turkey and Greece exhibit vast potential in connecting Caspian supply sources with Western markets, both independently of one another as well as in unison. Taking this into account, the EU and the US in particular have endorsed policies which have privileged Turkey as the main interconnector between Europe and the Caspian in the scramble for European energy security. However, Ankara’s current geopolitical reorientation towards Russia (with whom it has developed a pragmatic, yet strong energy partnership) and the Middle East, along with the several security-political shortcomings that undermine the stability of the Turkish energy grid, might lead toward a rethinking of Western energy policy toward the alternative, emergent Greek (energy) ring. READ MORE

  • Marco Pantelakis  |  Date: 29.08.2010  |  Published on EGF: 29.08.2010  |  External Relations
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EGF Turkey File  PDF  (148 Kb) Members only


August 2010

John Van Pool 
EGF Turkey Geopolitics Analyst

Key Positions:

• Terrorism-related acts of sabotage, linked to the outlawed Kurdish-separatist group, the PKK, took place on the Kirkuk-Ceyhan gas pipeline on 10 August, disrupting production 

• The Moscow-backed South Stream gas pipeline has been losing support amongst influential stakeholders in the region (the Italian Energy company, ENI, has raised concerns that the project will not be commercially viable) 

• Turkey appears to be slowly correcting its energy policy shortcomings of the past with Russia, and Ankara now seeks a more balanced energy partnership with Moscow 

• Conciliatory gestures towards Turkey’s Kurds by the present Ankara government appear to have done little to ease tensions in the country’s south east, which is heavily populated by Kurdish minorities. READ MORE


  • John Van Pool  |  Date: 29.08.2010  |  Published on EGF: 29.08.2010  |  External Relations
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EGF Forum Outlook: Assessing Gazprom’s Next Movements  PDF  (86 Kb) Members only

In a recent briefing on Russia, this Forum expressed the view that Moscow is becoming an increasingly assertive regional player in the wider Black and Caspian Sea (BCS) basin and that energy remains a key Russian priority for the region. We commented in that report that the Russian state-controlled energy holding, Gazprom, provided Moscow with a significant instrument to exercise power in the region.

  • EGF Editorial  |  Date: 09.08.2010  |  Published on EGF: 09.08.2010  |  Markets
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External Relations Briefing: Russian-Jordanian Relations  PDF  (59 Kb) Members only

Jordan has always been a moderate monarchy and, taking into account the role of the British Empire in the foundation of the Hashemite Kingdom, one of the most pro-Western regimes in the Arab East. Jordan’s well-established relations with Russia, which have become even closer and warmer during the last decade, might therefore seem surprising. However, in the Middle East, perhaps even more than in any geopolitical regions, neither generalizations nor stereotypes are able to reflect complex realities. Moscow and Amman have a number of reasons to preserve and cultivate their cooperation

  • Andrej Kreutz  |  Date: 13.07.2010  |  Published on EGF: 13.07.2010  |  External Relations
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Securing Energy and Building Regional Security: EU-Turkey Cooperation in the Black and Caspian Seas Basin  PDF  (142 Kb) Members only

Turkey’s importance to the EU should not be underestimated
Turkey’s unique geopolitical position, straddling both Europe and Asia (encompassing its proximity in the Middle East, Caucuses, Balkans, and Black & Caspian Sea regions specifically), has placed the country into a very advantageous position amongst all actors that are involved in any of these areas. Its longstanding membership in NATO and the Council of Europe, in addition to its historical military partnership with Israel, further underscores the fact that Turkey has long been, and continues to be, a partner of strategic importance to the West. Furthermore, with no end in sight to Europe’s reliance on imported Eurasian and Russian gas supplies, Turkey’s territory is the crossroads for the planned NABUCCO gas pipeline, which intends to decrease European reliance on Russian gas.

  • EGF Editorial  |  Date: 29.05.2010  |  Published on EGF: 02.06.2010  |  Energy
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The Reemergence of Russian Geopolitical Power in the Black and Caspian Seas Region: Implications for Turkey and the Wider Power Balances  PDF  (254 Kb) Members only

Energy and security: Russia’s new obsession with the wider Black Sea region Revived by the economic recovery it has witnessed in recent years, and not necessarily weakened by the global financial crisis, Russia is demonstrating itself to be an increasingly assertive (political and economic) force in the wider-Black and Caspian Seas (BCS) basin. Exerting influence in the BCS region is a crucial element in the Russian geopolitical strategy, given the region’s importance both as an energy producer as well as its vitality as a primary corridor for the transit of oil and gas to international markets.

  • EGF Editorial  |  Date: 26.05.2010  |  Published on EGF: 26.05.2010  |  Energy
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The EU-Russia Energy Partnership: The Future of the Energy Charter (..and the Debate over the Third Package)  PDF  (162 Kb) Members only

Summary of Panel I: The Future of the Energy Charter and the Debate over the Third Package
The energy trade between Russia and the countries of the European Union (EU) is of fundamental significance for the energy security of each party. Despite the close proximity of the EU-Russia energy relationship, however, the legal and political basis underpinning this relationship, particularly with regards to the gas trade, has proven itself inadequate in guaranteeing the energy security of both parties. Russia's recent announcement of its intention "of not becoming a member" of the Energy Charter Treaty, and new proposal for global energy security has created further uncertainty. While it is hoped that a new government in Kiev will lead to an improvement of Russian relations with Ukraine, Ukraine's national gas transportation operator remains in a difficult financial position and another gas crisis embroiling Ukraine, Russia and the EU, whilst hardly imminent, cannot be entirely ruled out.

  • EGF Editorial  |  Date: 14.05.2010  |  Published on EGF: 21.05.2010  |  Energy
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The EU-Russia Energy Partnership: Russia's Arctic Uncertainty  PDF  (154 Kb) Members only

Summary of Panel II: Russia’s Arctic Uncertainty
The discussion in the second panel of the online session, which focused on the future of upstream energy exploration projects in the Russian Arctic, brought out the following messages for European policy makers and was supported by the ensuing extended commentary

  • EGF Editorial  |  Date: 14.05.2010  |  Published on EGF: 21.05.2010  |  Energy
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Changing EU Energy Legislation: Practical Scenarios for Strengthening the EU-Russia Energy Partnership  PDF  (162 Kb) Members only

Energy Roundtable Summary Document

The EU-Russia energy roundtable discussion held at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO) on February 26, 2010, brought together a significant number of well known experts and policy makers engaged in the EU-Russia energy relationship in order to assess some of the challenges which presently exist in this sphere. Some of these challenges are summarised below. The objectives of the seminar organisers were to create an environment in which experts and policy makers could openly and candidly discuss the challenges standing before the EU-Russia energy relationship. The roundtable was also attended by a large number of participants from academia, government, energy companies and the diplomatic community.

  • EGF Editorial  |  Date: 17.05.2010  |  Published on EGF: 17.05.2010  |  Energy
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