Members Area
Geopolitical Challenges: Prospects and Scenarios 2010 - Summary Document  PDF  (158 Kb)

At the end of December 1999, as the world prepared to usher in a new Millennium, in Europe and other parts of the planet, there was widespread concern that the so called “Millennium Bug” would strike, causing unforeseen disruption and havoc. Ten years on, in December of last year, for many in Europe, the Millennium Bug was just a shade in the memory as a far more ominous concern was pressing home – the prospect of another gas crisis. Although the fact that the Russia-Ukraine gas dispute of January 2009 – and its knock-on effect of leaving much of Europe without natural gas in the peak of winter – did not repeat itself during the record cold European temperatures of January this year, the very fact that European attention has become so focused on this theme demonstrates how geopolitical developments in the European hinterlands have come to impact the day-to-day livelihood of all Europeans

  • EGF Editorial  |  Date: 16.03.2010  |  Published on EGF: 16.03.2010  |  Energy
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Caspian Security Briefing: Azerbaijan  PDF  (69 Kb) Members only

The former-Soviet Republic of Azerbaijan has attracted a notable degree of attention amongst the international investor community due to the impressive potential of its hydrocarbons sector. The country’s vast (and still largely untapped) oil and gas fields, located in the strategically important Caspian Sea basin, provide the source for major energy transport arteries such as the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline. Future energy transport projects of strategic relevance to the European Union...

  • EGF Editorial  |  Date: 08.03.2010  |  Published on EGF: 19.02.2010  |  Energy
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Risks, Threats and Advisory Briefing: AlgeriaMembers only

A steady stream of terrorist attacks and clashes between authorities and militants has continued to characterise the security landscape in Algeria in the beginning of 2010 and the latter phases of 2009...

  • EGF Editorial  |  Date: 08.03.2010  |  Published on EGF: 25.01.2010  |  Security
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North Caucasus Security OutlookMembers only

Russia during the Putin (and now Putin-Medvedev) years has, to a good degree, been successful in casting an image of increasing national wealth, external power and domestic stability...

  • EGF Editorial  |  Date: 30.12.2009  |  Published on EGF: 18.12.2009  |  Security
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Bosnia and Herzegovina: Political PrognosisMembers only

The former-Yugoslav entity of Bosnia and Herzegovina is gripped by deep political crisis at present. Divisions between Serb, Croat and Bosniak (Bosnian Muslims) minorities are deepening inside the country, undermining the work and institutions of government, scuttling any sense of national unity and threatening to plunge Bosnia into the vortex of ethnic conflict...

  • EGF Editorial  |  Date: 30.12.2009  |  Published on EGF: 22.10.2009  |  Security
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Uzbekistan foreign policy briefingMembers only

Key issues:

1. Human rights.
2. Energy security
3. Regime stability
4. Outlook

  • Dr. Marat Terterov  |  Date: 30.12.2009  |  Published on EGF: 08.10.2009  |  External Relations
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Turkey: Domestic Security Outlook Members only

Key issues:

  • Special operations continue in Turkey’s south east;
  • PKK conflict taking on a more complex character;
  • Many detained in domestic crackdowns;
  • State-sponsored Kurdish militias involved in massacre;
  • Islamic threat to secular elite deemed real;
  • Government hardens position on secular elites;
  • Clandestine plot to overthrown Turkish government;
  • Corruption not the key obstacle in Turkey’s EU accession talks.

  • EGF Editorial  |  Date: 30.12.2009  |  Published on EGF: 25.06.2009  |  Security
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Political Risk and Threat Advisory Briefing: Putting Putin’s Russia Strategy into Perspective Members only

In the spring of 2009 Russia remains in the midst of deep recession, as the country seeks to pull itself out of the biggest economic crisis faced since 1998. The political challenge this poses to the current Russian government of Prime Minister and former-President, Vladimir Putin, is substantial...

  • Dr. Marat Terterov  |  Date: 08.03.2010  |  Published on EGF: 08.05.2010  |  Energy
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North African Security Outlook: Trans-national Islamic Extremism in the MaghrebMembers only

Key issues:

  • Maghreb terror threat escalated to regional level;
  • Fresh round of attacks by Al Qaeda terrorist cells in Algeria;
  • Government confidence building measures amidst pre-electoral terror threat;
  • Algeria’s predicament: more terror with fewer insurgents;
  • High profile terror arrests sweep Morocco;
  • Lack of confidence in anti-terrorism measures, despite the crackdowns;
  • Terrorism threat exacerbated by Morocco’s social and economic concerns;
  • Clashes between militants and the army continue in Mauritania;
  • Presence of Al Qaeda in Mauritania likely;
  • Al Qaeda suspects jailed in Tunisia;
  • Libyan authorities remain vigilant in wake of anticipated attacks;
  • Maghreb militants prevented from launching attacks in Europe;
  • Maghreb anti-terrorism measures will require greater coordination.

  • EGF Editorial  |  Date: 30.12.2009  |  Published on EGF: 13.03.2010  |  Security
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Ukraine foreign policy briefingMembers only

Key issues:
1. European integration;
2. NATO membership;
3. Political instability;
4. Outlook.

  • Dr. Marat Terterov  |  Date: 30.12.2009  |  Published on EGF: 08.10.2008  |  External Relations
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