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EGF
The European Geopolitical Forum

Friday 1 July 2022

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From the EGF Head of Research:

The Russian invasion of Ukraine by what it called a “special military operation” has crushed the European order, as we had known it, and triggered a huge leap to insecurity for All. Right now there is blatant lack of geopolitical vision on how a new, stable European order should look like. We must develop a new realistic vision and proactive common policy, inclusive of how to deal with Russia’s and the other East European states’ legitimate security interests and concerns.
100 issues+ May 2022 April 2022 March 2022 February 2022 January 2022 December 2021 November 2021 October 2021
September — November 2019 mid May – July 2019
February-April 2022 November-January 2022 August-October 2021 June-July 2021 April-May 2021 February-March 2021 Previous Issues
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News

  • Russia in historic foreign debt default, reports suggestJune 27, 2022
  • G7 face battle for unity as cost of Ukraine war mountsJune 27, 2022
  • Where is Russia taking Ukraine's stolen grain?June 27, 2022
More
South Caucasus
The Changing Dynamics of the Wider-Black Sea in Regional Security and External Relations
EGF Arab Spring
EGF Head of Research Recommended Reading
EGF Head of Research Recommended Reading
External Relations Israeli-Turkish Relations: Challenges and Opportunities

Russia-China-Afghanistan By Eugene KOGAN, Tbilisi-based defence and security expert

Even though Israel and Turkey normalised relations in June 2016 following the May 2010 Mavi Marmara Flotilla incident when Israeli soldiers killed ten people on board a Turkish vessel and the subsequent diplomatic rupture, Ankara’s support of the Hamas movement situated in the Gaza Strip continues to undermine bilateral relations.
The establishment of an official office in Istanbul in 2012 and its members are perceived as a thorn in the eye by the Israeli Government. Tel Aviv would like Erdoğan to close the Hamas office and expel its members from Turkey; however, this Israeli wish is not going to be granted any time soon since Erdoğan’s words do not translate into deeds. The signature of the Abraham Accords highlighted two divergent trends in the region: Turkey’s continued isolation and Israel’s strengthened position. This resulted in Erdoğan’s intention to improve relations with Israel. READ MORE.

  • Thursday, 23 June 2022, 06:48
Security Iran’s "Game of Drones" in the Middle East

Fuad Shahbazov By Fuad SHAHBAZOV, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

Amid mounting domestic unrest and ongoing diplomatic standoffs with regional states, Iran has devoted a significant and increasing amount of national resources toward upgrading its national drone program. On May 17, the Iranian government officially inaugurated its first overseas drone factory in Dushanbe, Tajikistan; the facility manufactures the indigenous Ababil-2, a multipurpose drone model with reconnaissance, combat, and suicide capabilities. The Ababil-2 boasts a maximum range of 200 kilometres and can sustain roughly 90 minutes of flight time. The new drone factory will help Iran to improve relations with Tajikistan after a period of lingering diplomatic tension, and General Mohammad Bagheri described its inauguration as a turning point in bilateral military cooperation between the two countries. READ MORE

  • Thursday, 23 June 2022, 06:47
External Relations Restoring Communication Links is an Important Confidence-building Measure

Benyamin Poghosyan By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

There is broad consensus in the region and in the international community on the need to restore communications in the South Caucasus and on the possibility of finding mutually accepted solutions for this to be achieved. However the constant focus on the routes passing via the Syunik region and connecting Azerbaijan with Nakhijevan has made the whole process of restoration of communications a bone of contention for both sides. The restoration of communications may still play a positive role in the establishment of good neighbourly relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan, by creating conditions from which both societies can benefit. However, if the sides continue this tit-for-tat discussion around the "Zangezur corridor," blaming each other for violating previous agreements, the restoration of communications issue will only deepen the mistrust between them, he adds. Starting instead with a railway connection between Armenia and Nakhijevan via Yersakh on the other hand, requires only a further 1 km of railroad to be constructed, and will serve as a significant confidence-building measure between Armenia and Azerbaijan and will make it easier for Armenia and Azerbaijan to agree on the modalities for the restoration of other routes. READ MORE

  • Thursday, 23 June 2022, 06:46
External Relations Will Azerbaijan become a NATO pawn against Russia in South Caucasus?

Yeghia TASHJIAN By Yeghia TASHJIAN, Beirut-based regional analyst and researcher, columnist, "The Armenian Weekly”

Despite Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s adherence to the ideology of pan-Turkism, the former-Soviet republic has long managed to successfully balance its relations between Russia, Turkey, and the west. However, the ‘frozen conflict’ with Armenia over disputed Nagorno-Karabakh territory, and the on-going conflict in Ukraine, have recently tested the limits of this balancing act. In January 2022, as Russia’s military build-up on Ukraine’s border was in full swing, Aliyev visited his counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv and reaffirmed Baku’s support for Ukraine’s territorial integrity. Then, the following month – just two days before Russia announced its ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine – Aliyev was in Moscow signing a treaty of alliance with Russian President Vladimir Putin. READ MORE

  • Thursday, 16 June 2022, 11:29
External Relations The South Caucasus from War to Peace: 30 Measures between Now and 2030

Joint Armenian-Azerbaijani Liaison Group Joint Armenian-Azerbaijani Liaison Group on confidence-building measures

The Joint Armenian-Azerbaijani Liaison Group on confidence-building measures in support of lasting peace in the South Caucasus has published its report in which it proposes 30 short, medium and long term measures in support of ongoing efforts to establish peace in the region. On Wednesday, 6 April, members of the Working Group, presented their report to the EU Special Representative for the South Caucasus, Toivo Klaar, and other EU officials at a special briefing in Brussels. In their report, published on the eve of the meeting between the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan and the president of the European Union in Brussels on 6 April, the group says that "all the ingredients for peace exist in the South Caucasus. All the ingredients for war exist too. What is in front of us is a choice". The group says that the proposed measures are a building block in the quest for peace but if the ideas being proposed are implemented the objective of building a peaceful, secure and prosperous South Caucasus will be much closer to being achieved. It was now necessary that all concerned should put effort into turning the thirty measures being proposed in the report into tangible action.
The work of the Joint Liaison Group was co-ordinated and facilitated by LINKS Europe - an independent foundation based in The Hague, The Netherlands - in the framework of the European Union's EU4Peace initiative. READ MORE

  • Wednesday, 13 April 2022, 06:55
Markets The Rising Strategic Role of Azerbaijan in Euro-Asian Economic Relations

The Rising Strategic Role of Azerbaijan By Ayaz MUSEYIBOV, Head of Department, Center for Analysis and Communication of Economic Reforms of the Republic of Azerbaijan

Currently, energy and trade routes security is one of the major considerations at the global level. In the wake of the recent global events, the importance of energy resources is more likely to become a dominant matter which the global economy tremendously needs.
Energy supply to Europe, particularly to South and South-Eastern Europe, depends on only one source. However, the European Commission is accelerating the economic diversification processes beginning with the gas routes in order to reduce the economic dependency. Hence, the EU has already held various talks with energy players such as Egypt, Qatar, the United States, South Korea, Nigeria, and Azerbaijan to increase natural gas supplies in the case of a gas crisis. READ MORE

  • Wednesday, 6 April 2022, 10:03
External Relations Putin and the 2022 Russian Military Conflict in Post-Soviet Lands

Alan Whitehorn By Alan WHITEHORN, Professor Emeritus in Political Science, The Royal Military College of Canada

Coming to power after the break-up of the Soviet Union in the 1990s, Lukashenko had ruled Belarus in a highly autocratic fashion for almost three decades, while seeking to navigate his country within Moscow’s sphere of influence. However, the aging leader’s arbitrary rule began to teeter and he faced a major challenge in the election of 2020. When skewed and rigged election results were announced, hundreds of thousands of voters of Belarus peacefully protested their strong objections.
The West echoed moral support to the mass of citizens voicing democratic demands on the streets, but provided little material assistance. Somewhat optimistically and naively, the West trusted that the unarmed people would peacefully prevail over the coercive might of the internal and external dictators in Minsk and Moscow. Putin, by contrast, sensing a vulnerable and weakened regime, provided his fellow authoritarian colleague with external assistance to forcefully crush the peaceful demonstrators. READ MORE

  • Thursday, 17 March 2022, 07:54
All discussions

EGF Head of Research, George Vlad Niculescu was recently interviewed by the “Baku Tribune” on the implications of the war in Ukraine on regional security in the South Caucasus, the prospects for Armenia and Azerbaijan to sign a peace treaty, and the prospects and risks of Finland’s and Sweden’s applications for NATO membership. Part of this interview was also published in Russian on Vzglyad.az. On the former issue he concluded: “The peaceful resolution and normalization of relations between the three South Caucasian states, as well as the strengthening of their trilateral cooperation in various regional formats, might help mitigate the serious security risks emerging from their different geographical and geopolitical positions, and the possible outcomes of the war in Ukraine.” READ MORE

EGF Affiliated Expert Benyamin POGHOSYAN appeared in a new episode of the new English-spoken weekly TV program Viewpoint, where he discussed current issues of the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process, and Turkey’s plans to launch a new military operation against the Kurds in Syria. VIEW EPISODE

 

On March 24-27, 2022, George Vlad Niculescu, Head of Research of the EGF, co-chaired the 23rd workshop of the Regional Stability in the South Caucasus Study Group of the PfP Consortium of Defence Academies and Security Studies Institutes on “Peace Building through Economic and Infrastructure Integration in the South Caucasus”, held in Naples (Italy). Please click here for the programme and agenda outline, here for his speaking points, and here for policy recommendations.

On June 10th, 2021, Dr George Vlad Niculescu, EGF Head of Research, participated in the commemorative event: “Uzbekistan and its International Partners: Thirty Years of Independent Statehood, Energy Cooperation, and Openness towards Reform and Investment” organized by the Uzbek Embassy to the Kingdom of Belgium and the E.U. and by the Brussels Energy Club. On that occasion, he delivered a speech highlighting Uzbekistan’s relevance for the European Union strategy in Central Asia and a couple of challenges ahead for Uzbekistan and its Central Asian neighbours. Click here to read his speech.

  • The Daily BriefJune 22, 2022
  • Stratfor 2018 Second-Quarter ForecastMarch 11, 2018
  • Stratfor 2018 Annual ForecastDecember 26, 2017
More
EGF Featured Publication, from Affiliated Expert Anna Ohanyan
Armenia’s Velvet Revolution: Authoritarian Decline and Civil Resistance in a Multipolar World
EGF Featured Publication from Affiliated Expert Alan Whitehorn
EGF Featured Publication from Affiliated Expert Alan Whitehorn
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