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EGF
The European Geopolitical Forum

Friday 5 March 2021

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From the EGF Head of Research:

In the post-Trumpian world, EU’s Strategic Compass should provide for a more consistent involvement in conflict management and resolution in the European neighbourhoods. Cooperation with interested global and regional actors is critical to the success.
100 issues+ January 2021 December 2020
September — November 2019 mid May – July 2019
December-January 2021 October-November 2020 August-September 2020 July 2020 June 2020 May 2020 April 2020 March 2020
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News

  • Ahead of Blinken meeting, Mexico president says energy policy is a sovereign matterFebruary 26, 2021
  • Political foes clash over Moldova registration of Russian vaccineFebruary 26, 2021
  • In independence threat, Scotland's ex-first minister attacks governmentFebruary 26, 2021
More
South Caucasus
The Changing Dynamics of the Wider-Black Sea in Regional Security and External Relations
EGF Arab Spring
Energy Nuclear Energy for Uzbekistan: Achieving Decarbonization Targets and Resolving Energy Shortages

Nuclear Energy for Uzbekistan: Achieving Decarbonization Targets and Resolving Energy Shortages Embassy of the Republic of Uzbekistan in the Kingdom of Belgium

On 29 January 2021 the Brussels-based media outlet EU Today and the Brussels Press Club in Brussels hosted a conference dedicated to the construction of nuclear power plants in Belarus, Turkey and Uzbekistan. Despite the fact that plans for the construction of new power units are being considered at various stages both in the EU member states-Finland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Bulgaria, and in the UK, Pakistan, the United Arab Emirates, etc., the discussion was focused on these countries. Much attention at the conference was paid to the construction of nuclear power plants in Uzbekistan. READ MORE

  • Wednesday, 3 March 2021, 10:03
External Relations What’s Next in Armenia – Russia Relations

Benyamin Poghosyan By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

Relations with Russia were always a cornerstone for Armenian foreign policy. Since Armenia has regained its independence in 1991, Russia has been its essential political and military ally. Several reasons were behind such a choice – geopolitics, history, significant Armenian community in Russia. The Russian military base and border troops have been deployed in Armenia, and Yerevan joined Collective Security Treaty Organization and Eurasian Economic Union. Meanwhile, in the last 10-15 years, a discourse about Armenia’s dangerous overdependence on Russia was prevalent in Armenian and Western experts’ circles. Many perceived Armenia as a client state of Russia and called for changes. READ MORE

  • Wednesday, 3 March 2021, 09:53
External Relations Why Azerbaijan Is Trying to Rekindle Israeli-Turkish Ties?

Fuad Shahbazov By Fuad Shahbazov, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

The recent normalisation deals between Israel and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan signify substantial changes in the Middle East. The new agreements were signed following substantive negotiations on several security-related issues, including Iran and Turkey’s growing influence. However, unlike their Arab counterparts, both Ankara and Tehran denounced the Abraham Accords, labelling them as a betrayal of the Palestinian cause and a “dagger in the back of Muslims. Nevertheless, media reports in December 2020 revealed that Turkey and Israel had established a secret channel for negotiations to prepare a roadmap to further bilateral relations. READ MORE

  • Monday, 8 February 2021, 21:32
Energy The Role of the ESP in Gazprom’s European Sales Strategy

Jack Sharples By Jack Sharples, PhD, Research Fellow of the Oxford Institute of Energy Studies and EGF Associate Researcher on the External Dimensions of Russian Gas

Gazprom Export launched its Electronic Sales Platform (ESP) in the context of an increasingly competitive European market. Sales volumes have grown, and have averaged 2 bcm per month since April 2019. As a result of this growth, the ESP is now a key part of Gazprom’s European sales strategy: It generates additional sales revenues, optimises Gazprom’s use of is physical export infrastructure, and provides a constant flow of valuable market data that informs Gazprom’s wider sales strategy. Sales are largely concentrated in four countries, while deliveries are split between Ukrainian and non-Ukrainian routes. ESP sales prices closely track European hub prices for comparable products, and the sales volumes show that Gazprom’s counterparties consider the ESP an attractive offering. The operation of the ESP highlights the crucial element of Gazprom’s European sales strategy: The importance of nuanced optimisation, as Gazprom seeks to maximise its sales volumes without placing excessive downward pressure on European hub prices that would impact revenues from its hub-indexed LTC portfolio. Overall, the ESP demonstrates how far Gazprom has evolved in the past decade, as it seeks to retain market share on an increasingly competitive European market. READ MORE

  • Thursday, 7 January 2021, 06:18
External Relations Is Armenia’s Democracy on Borrowed Time?

Anna Ohanyan By Anna Ohanyan, PhD, non-resident senior scholar in the Russia and Eurasia Program of Carnegie

Reeling from a military defeat in a war with Turkey-backed Azerbaijan, can Armenia’s hard-won democracy withstand domestic political turmoil?
The recent agreement to cease hostilities in Nagorno-Karabakh has created a new status quo in the South Caucasus. Azerbaijan has recovered territories it lost in the 1990s when the conflict over the enclave first erupted, in the shadow of the Soviet collapse. A new modus vivendi between Russia and Turkey is shaping regional geopolitics. Once shaky authoritarian rule in Azerbaijan is now more deeply entrenched. It can also count on the support of Turkey, another increasingly authoritarian player in the neighbourhood. This stronger and deeper authoritarian presence in the region will place significant stress on nascent democracies in Georgia and Armenia for years to come. READ MORE

  • Thursday, 7 January 2021, 06:16
Security Potential Stress Points in the Nagorno-Karabakh Ceasefire Agreement

Alan Whitehorn By Alan Whitehorn, Professor Emeritus in Political Science, The Royal Military College of Canada

There are number of potential stress points in the ceasefire agreement signed by Russia, Azerbaijan and Armenia, but also agreed to by the president of Nagorno Karabakh on November 9th, 2020. It is a document that was signed under the duress of rapidly deteriorating war conditions for Armenians. Few within Armenia were consulted apart from some senior military leaders. It has not been ratified by the Armenian Parliament. Public disapproval has been extensive READ MORE.

  • Thursday, 7 January 2021, 06:16
All discussions

EGF Affiliated Expert Benyamin Poghosyan has recently been interviewed by EURONEWS on recent developments of the ongoing political crisis in Armenia. READ MORE.

EGF Affiliated Expert Fuad Shahbazov has recently been interviewed by Radio Free Europe-Radio Liberty on how technology, tactics, and Turkish advice led Azerbaijan to victory in Nagorno-Karabakh. READ MORE

 

On 13-15 January 2021, George Vlad Niculescu, EGF Head of Research, participated in the online debates on the relations of the West with Turkey, China, and Russia, as well as on the Trans-Atlantic relations, that were organized by the Romanian Diplomatic Institute, Bucharest. Please click here for his speaking points.

On December 4th, 2020, George Vlad Niculescu, Head of Research of the EGF, co-chaired the second virtual roundtable of the Regional Stability in the South Caucasus Study Group of the PfP Consortium of Defence Academies and Security Studies Institutes on “What Future for Nagorno-Karabakh in the wake of the 2020 Six-Weeks War? – Consequences for Conflict Settlement in the South Caucasus Region”. Please click here for the programme and virtual roundtable outline, here for his speaking points, and here for the ensuing Study Group Information, including extended Policy Recommendations.

  • The Daily BriefMarch 1, 2021
  • Stratfor 2018 Second-Quarter ForecastMarch 11, 2018
  • Stratfor 2018 Annual ForecastDecember 26, 2017
More
EGF Featured Publication, from Affiliated Expert Anna Ohanyan
Armenia’s Velvet Revolution: Authoritarian Decline and Civil Resistance in a Multipolar World
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