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EGF
The European Geopolitical Forum

Sunday 1 October 2023

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From the EGF Head of Research:

To manage the highly consequential risk of China becoming a military spoiler in Ukraine, the West should reassure Beijing that maintaining the current Chinese-styled “neutrality” worked well for Chinese interests, including by reassuring Beijing against fears of potential economic isolation. In fact, China should not be expected to pursue conflict resolution in Ukraine, but merely some crisis mediation. The key issue is how it would do that: entirely on Russian terms or otherwise. READ MORE
100 issues+ December 2022 November 2022 October 2022 September 2022 August 2022 July 2022 June 2022
September — November 2019 mid May – July 2019
March-June 2023 November-February 2023 August-October 2022 May-July 2022 February-April 2022 November-January 2022 August-October 2021 Previous Issues
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News

  • Belarus says Polish helicopter violated airspace, Warsaw deniesSeptember 29, 2023
  • East Libya commander Haftar in Moscow for talks with PutinSeptember 29, 2023
  • US National Security Agency unveils artificial intelligence security centreSeptember 29, 2023
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South Caucasus
The Changing Dynamics of the Wider-Black Sea in Regional Security and External Relations
EGF Arab Spring
EGF Head of Research Recommended Reading
EGF Head of Research Recommended Reading
Statement on the Fresh Violence in Nagorno-Karabakh

Marat Terterov
Taking into account the latest media reports on the new outbreak of hostilities on the Line of Contact in Karabakh (called Artsakh in Armenian) between local Armenian forces and the Azerbaijani military, I am gravely concerned about the loss of life and the indiscriminate destruction of civilian assets. As the Founder of the European Geopolitical Forum, an organisation which embraces peaceful means of conflict resolution, and which has been actively involved in finding a reasonable, sound and long-term solution to the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh for some ten years, I call for an immediate end to all hostilities and a swift return of the parties to the negotiation table. I am encouraged by the breaking news of a Russian-mediated ceasefire. I call for the immediate, non-conditional resumption of the internationally mediated dialogue between Baku and representatives of the population of Nagorno-Karabakh. I also call on the Russian Federation, the United States and the European Union to actively demand peaceful settlement of the Karabakh conflict and to ensure that the ceasefire is respected without any form of deviation.

Dr Marat Terterov,
Founder, European Geopolitical Forum

  • Monday, 25 September 2023, 22:44
Security What Next in Nagorno Karabakh

Benyamin Poghosyan By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

On September 19, Azerbaijan launched a large-scale offensive against the self-declared Nagorno Karabakh Republic with only one goal: to finish with that republic. The Azerbaijani attack was not a surprise to anyone. At least since the beginning of 2023, Azerbaijan has stated clearly and loudly that Baku will not tolerate the status quo that emerged after the 2020 Nagorno Karabakh war and will do everything possible to destroy the Nagorno Karabakh Republic. Azerbaijan was also clear that it would reach its goal quickly. Since the beginning of September 2023, as Azerbaijan started to concentrate troops along the line of contact, it was clear the military offensive would take place very soon. Armenia knew that Russia knew that, the EU and the US knew that, and Nagorno Karabakh authorities knew that. What were the positions of the sides regarding the upcoming offensive of Azerbaijan? READ MORE

  • Monday, 25 September 2023, 22:53
Security Azerbaijan Moves to Disarm Karabakh Separatists (Part One)

Vusal GULIYEV By Vasif HUSEYNOV, PhD, Head of Department, AIR Center, Adjunct Lecturer, ADA and Khazar Universities, Baku

On September 19, the Azerbaijani Defence Ministry announced it had launched an “anti-terrorist” operation against “illegal formations” in Karabakh. This move came after four Azerbaijani soldiers and two civilians were killed by land mines in the region. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan condemned the “full-scale aggression” and denounced Russian peacekeepers for “failing to do their jobs’.
The recent fighting comes as tensions had been mounting over Baku’s efforts to fully integrate Karabakh back into Azerbaijan. This measure had been stipulated in the tripartite agreement signed by Azerbaijan, Armenia and Russia following the end of the Second Karabakh War in November 2020. Russian peacekeepers were stationed in the region to facilitate implementation of the measure; yet, they have done little since to constructively manage the process. READ MORE

  • Monday, 25 September 2023, 22:52
Security The Geopolitical Background of the Moscow-Yerevan Rift and Russia’s Future in the Region

Yeghia TASHJIAN By Yeghia TASHJIAN, Beirut-based regional analyst and researcher, columnist, "The Armenian Weekly”

Recent geopolitical developments in the South Caucasus have once again appeared in the headlines of media and analytical centers. Experts have been questioning whether Russia is distancing itself from the region. Armenian regional experts and officials have been questioning Russia’s motives in the region, considering developments in Artsakh and the latest Azerbaijani escalation. Russia is navigating the narrow complexities of the post-2020 Artsakh War regional architecture, asserting itself as the main power broker in the region (i.e. brokering the 2020 trilateral ceasefire agreement, arranging humanitarian aid to Artsakh via the Berdzor Corridor and Aghdam, and possibly a new deal in the coming days) through compromise or political flexibility. This flexibility has caused friction in Moscow-Yerevan relations.
Many in Russia, including high officials, are suspicious of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s motives towards their country. The Armenian leader has speculated that Russia seems to be leaving the region. However, Russia still views the region as “blizhnee zarubezhe” (its “near abroad”) or its “lebensraum” (its “vital space”). From Russia’s perspective, if it leaves the South Caucasus, its only route to the Middle East would be cut off, Iran and Turkey would clash for power, and the North Caucasus would become vulnerable to instability. READ MORE

  • Monday, 25 September 2023, 22:50
External Relations Geopolitical Initiatives: The Example Of BRICS

Nika CHITADZE By Nika CHITADZE, PhD, Director of the Center for International Studies, Tbilisi

BRICS is an acronym for the top five emerging (except Russia) economies: Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. The first four were originally grouped as “BRIC” (or “BRIC”) in 2001, and South Africa joined in 2010. BRICS was created to draw attention to investment opportunities and was not an official intergovernmental organization. Since 2009, they have increasingly evolved into a more cohesive geopolitical bloc, with governments meeting annually at official summits and coordinating multilateral policies. On July 24, 2022, China hosted the 14th BRICS summit and in August 2023, the summit was held in South Africa.
BRICS is considered the main rival of the G7 bloc of advanced economies, having announced competing initiatives such as the New Development Bank, the Contingent Reserve Facility, the BRICS payment system, and the BRICS reserve currency. Since 2022, the group has been looking to expand membership and several developing countries have expressed interest in joining. READ MORE

  • Friday, 15 September 2023, 07:04
External Relations Turkey’s Pivot West Disrupts Relations With Russia

Fuad Shahbazov By Fuad SHAHBAZOV, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

On July 9, Turkey freed the commanders of the well-known Ukrainian Azov regiment after months of hosting them as a part of a deal with Russia. The fighters surrendered to Russian forces after weeks of brutal siege and resistance at the Azovstal Iron and Steel Works in Mariupol, even after the rest of the city had fallen following Russia’s devastating and relentless assaults. Ankara’s surprise move came during Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s first official visit to Turkey since the Russian invasion in February 2022 to meet his counterpart, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and discuss the possibilities of deepening their strategic partnership. Amid rhetoric on expanding the two countries’ cooperation in defense and security, Erdogan also declared, “Ukraine deserves to be a NATO [North Atlantic Treaty Organization] member”. READ MORE

  • Friday, 4 August 2023, 07:54
External Relations US-Turkey Relations: Biden Navigates Difficulties with Erdogan

Georgia By Eugene KOGAN, Tbilisi-based defence and security expert

Since the inauguration of President Biden in January 2021, the US administration has kept its relationship with Turkey to a bare minimum. For the Biden administration, the issue of human rights in Turkey remains very much on the agenda while for President Erdoğan, the issue seems to be a lower priority for his administration. Such behaviour infuriates not just Biden administration officials but also members of the House and the Senate. This has resulted in the Turkish president not being invited to Washington. Perhaps the two sides can each be blamed for their current relationship; however, Erdoğan is maintaining his course and appears unbothered by the consequences. For his part, Biden is keeping his cool despite a number of divergences in interests of the US and Turkey. READ MORE

  • Saturday, 3 June 2023, 07:47
Security Reflections on the Karabakh and Ukraine Wars

Alan Whitehorn By Alan WHITEHORN, Professor Emeritus in Political Science, The Royal Military College of Canada

As we contemplate our current era of ongoing pandemics and wars, it is useful to utilize a comparative framework. In a geopolitical strategic analysis of the 2020 Karabakh war and that of the ongoing 2022-2023 war in Ukraine, we have witnessed the continuing importance of the technological revolution in warfare. Newspaper headlines around the world have proclaimed the pivotal use of drones and satellite-based intelligence for targeting in both cases. In the 2020 war between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh and its surrounding territories, the extensive and critical use of Turkish and Israeli-made drones by Azerbaijan led to a swift and dramatic change in the military and geopolitical landscape in the South Caucasus. The widespread impact of drones was somewhat of a surprise to the Armenian armed forces. READ MORE

  • Thursday, 6 April 2023, 08:42
All discussions

EGF Head of Research, Dr. George Vlad NICULESCU, co-edited a new volume on “Understanding Contemporary Information Landscape Handbook (UCIL)” with the Austrian National Defence Academy and the PfP Consortium of Defence Academies and Security Studies Institutes: “The idea of this Handbook sprang forth from a policy recommendation issued at a past Regional Stability in the South Caucasus Study Group (RSSC SG) workshop: “Create, with the assistance of PfP Consortium volunteers, a Reference Curriculum on Media Literacy, emphasizing the impact of modern communication techniques and social media on human biology, psychology and behaviour. The aim would be to raise awareness of the media as a tool of hybrid warfare, and how to build resilience to it at individual level.” Looking with an academic eye at the final product of our last three years of work I’d conclude that this Handbook is a great success as a valuable education tool for students and teachers in media studies, politics, international relations. READ MORE

EGF Affiliated expert Benyamin POGHOSYAN has published a new op-ed with the IPS-journal.eu on “Perpetuating the cycle of violence”. He concluded: “Given Azerbaijan's actions to cultivate the concept of ‘Western Azerbaijan’, which declares most of Armenia as Azerbaijani historic lands, and Azerbaijani and Turkish demands to open the so-called ‘Zangezur corridor’ to connect Azerbaijan with Nakhijevan and Turkey, the upcoming years, if not decades, in the South Caucasus will be marked by additional escalations, wars and human suffering. READ MORE

EGF Affiliated Expert Yeghia TASHJIAN participated in a Groong Podcast where he discussed: Russia's policy towards Nagorno-Karabakh, possible scenarios for the South Caucasus and the wider region, and the ongoing negotiations between Yerevan and Baku. LISTEN HERE

 

On February 7, 2023, the Founder, and former Executive Director of the EGF Dr Marat TERTEROV moderated, and the Head of Research, Dr George Vlad NICULESCU participated in, the first panel of the web-conference on “The War in Ukraine: What Consequences for the Countries of Our Neighbourhood – East and South: What New Challenges for the EU?” organized by the Institute for European Studies of the Saint Louis University Brussels. Click here to read George’s speaking points, here for the conclusions (in French and in English) and here for the summary of presentations (in French only) of the web-conference.

Between 30 March and 01 April 2023, Dr Marat TERTEROV and Dr. George Vlad NICULESCU participated in the 25th workshop of the Regional Stability in the South Caucasus Study Group of the PfP Consortium of Defence Academies and Security Studies Institutes on “Discussing a South Caucasus Short of Russian Dominance”, held in Tbilisi (Georgia). Please click here for the programme and agenda outline, here for the agreed policy recommendations from participants, and here for George’s speaking points.

  • The Daily BriefSeptember 29, 2023
  • Stratfor 2018 Second-Quarter ForecastMarch 11, 2018
  • Stratfor 2018 Annual ForecastDecember 26, 2017
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EGF Featured Publication, from Affiliated Expert Anna Ohanyan
EGF Featured Publication, from Affiliated Expert Anna Ohanyan
EGF Featured Publication from Affiliated Expert Alan Whitehorn
EGF Featured Publication from Affiliated Expert Alan Whitehorn
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