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EGF
The European Geopolitical Forum

Thursday 23 March 2023

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From the EGF Head of Research:

The downside of the existing geopolitical endgames of the war in Ukraine is that they might be only applied either after the end of the war or to Kyiv-controlled territory at the time of a possibly agreed truce. The latter possibility engenders the risk for Ukraine and its Western supporters to eventually have to choose between restoring Ukraine’s full territorial integrity and Western interests to avoid joining the war, turning it nuclear, or remaining engulfed into an exhausting open-ended war. This is why the West needs a comprehensive vision and a calibrated strategy aiming to build a new European security system which would put Ukraine and other post-Soviet states’ sovereignty, independence, and stability at its core. READ MORE
100 issues+ December 2022 November 2022 October 2022 September 2022 August 2022 July 2022 June 2022
September — November 2019 mid May – July 2019
November-February 2023 August-October 2022 May-July 2022 February-April 2022 November-January 2022 August-October 2021 June-July 2021 Previous Issues
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News

  • Ukraine says Bakhmut battle grinding down Russia’s best unitsMarch 10, 2023
  • Georgia’s parliament drops controversial ‘foreign agents’ billMarch 10, 2023
  • What are the hypersonic missiles Russia is using in Ukraine?March 10, 2023
More
South Caucasus
The Changing Dynamics of the Wider-Black Sea in Regional Security and External Relations
EGF Arab Spring
EGF Head of Research Recommended Reading
EGF Head of Research Recommended Reading
External Relations Uzbekistan’s April 30 Constitutional Referendum Is Set To Deliver Results

Nuray Alekberli By Ambassador Dilyor KHAKIMOV, Ambassador of the Republic of Uzbekistan in Belgium

Over the past year, under the leadership of President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, Uzbekistan has embarked upon a national dialogue. Input, feedback, and affirmations from tens of thousands of Uzbek citizens have guided the drafting of a revised Constitution. In recent days, a flurry of activity has occurred that may soon make this draft official and usher in a fresh era for our country as we build a “New Uzbekistan.” Last week, the draft Constitution was considered in the Legislative Chamber and was approved for submission to a referendum on April 30. Then, on Monday, March 13, the Constitutional Court of Uzbekistan ruled that the decision by the Legislative Chamber to hold a referendum was in constitutional compliance. Finally, the Senate, just yesterday, March 14, confirmed this decision and approved the draft for submission to a constitutional referendum that will take place on April 30. READ MORE.

  • Wednesday, 15 March 2023, 14:32
Security A Long-Term International Presence in Nagorno-Karabakh Is Needed

Benyamin Poghosyan By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

Nagorno Karabakh's future is the most challenging question that Armenia and Azerbaijan face as they seek to move towards the normalisation of relations between them.
Since the 2020 Nagorno Karabakh war ended, Armenia and Azerbaijan have launched multi-track negotiations to sign a peace treaty. In 2021 the primary platform for negotiations was Russia, and in 2022 the EU and the US joined the club. Armenia and Azerbaijan discuss several separate but intertwined issues – the signature of the peace treaty, delimitation and demarcation of borders, restoration of communications, and the future of Nagorno Karabakh. All issues are pretty complicated, but Nagorno Karabakh's future is the most challenging question. There are different approaches how to deal with this issue. One approach argues for the inclusion of Nagorno Karabakh in the bilateral peace treaty, while according to another view, the Nagorno Karabakh issue should be separated from discussions on Armenia - Azerbaijan relations. READ MORE

  • Wednesday, 15 March 2023, 14:31
External Relations From Syria to Nagorno-Karabakh: Assessing Russo-Turkish ‘Co-opetition’

Yeghia TASHJIAN By Yeghia TASHJIAN, Beirut-based regional analyst and researcher, columnist, "The Armenian Weekly”

On a diplomatic level, Turkey tried to launch “Astana style” diplomatic measures to address Nagorno-Karabakh. However, given the fact that the conflict was taking place in the post-Soviet space, Russia failed to see much incentive in engaging in a bilateral track with Turkey in the form of a new “Astana style” process where Turkey and Russia were going to be equal partners, addressing a conflict in Russia’s “backyard”.
The year 2022 witnessed intensified dialogues between top Syrian and Turkish officials. These kicked off with an August meeting in Damascus between Ali Mamlouk, the Head of the National Security Bureau of the Ba’ath Party and a Special Security Advisor to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, and Hakan Fidan, the Head of Turkiye’s National Intelligence Organization (MIT). They concluded with a tripartite December meeting in Moscow, where Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu hosted his Syrian and Turkish colleagues Ali Mahmoud Abbas and Hulusi Akar (remarkably, Ali Mamlouk and Hakan Fidan were also present). Those meetings prompted world media and political experts to speculate about an “unthinkable” Syrian-Turkish rapprochement becoming “thinkable”. READ MORE

  • Wednesday, 15 March 2023, 14:29
Security Munich Conference Casts Optimistic Light on Azerbaijani-Armenian Peace Process

Fuad Shahbazov By Fuad SHAHBAZOV, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

On February 19, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan attended the discussion panel regarding the South Caucasus at the Munich Security Conference. Afterward, they held a face-to-face meeting on the side-lines of the conference with the mediation of United States Secretary of State Anthony Blinken. Ultimately, the parties focused on the points at the top of their respective agendas, and as a result, they failed to reach a significant agreement on many key issues, including the status of the Lachin road and future development of the Zangezur Corridor. Aliyev revealed in a later interview that he had proposed to the Armenian side the establishment of bilateral checkpoints at both ends of the Zangezur Corridor and along the Lachin road. Since the end of the Second Karabakh War in 2020, Azerbaijan has long sought the establishment of this desired corridor through Armenia’s Syunik province to connect the country with its Nakhchivan exclave, albeit unsuccessfully. Thus, debates over the Zangezur project, among other issues, have led to a stalemate in peace negotiations, with regional actors, such as Iran, strictly standing against the project and supporting Armenia in its opposition. READ MORE

  • Friday, 3 March 2023, 08:00
Security Turkey Holds the Nordic Countries at Gunpoint: Implications for NATO

An open letter for a Peace By Eugene KOGAN, Tbilisi-based defence and security expert

It is a paradox that two democratic Nordic countries that are willing to join NATO and become interoperable with it are kept at bay by pseudo-democratic NATO member Turkey. As long as this situation persists, Russia strategically has the last laugh. This could have been avoided if the proposed policy recommendations had been implemented by NATO some time ago.
To begin with, it is crucial to recall a preamble to the North Atlantic Treaty (Washington Treaty 1949), namely: ‘The Parties to this Treaty are determined to safeguard the freedom – founded on the principles of democracy, individual liberty and the rule of law’. Obviously, these principles have been repeatedly trampled upon by Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan over the last decade. And now, two democratic candidates for NATO membership, Finland and Sweden, have to fulfil conditions virtually imposed by the pseudo-democratic government of Turkey. This is a worrying paradox. READ MORE

  • Saturday, 25 February 2023, 07:43
Energy Black Sea Energy Submarine Cable – New Transit Role of Georgia

Nika CHITADZE By Nika CHITADZE, PhD, Director of the Center for International Studies, Tbilisi

The third decade of the 21st century, along with other global events and changes, is remarkable in terms of energy. The global cataclysms and the ongoing war on the European continent have particularly highlighted the political and ecological importance of energy. Despite the vital challenges, Europe is firmly committed to the policy of the Green Energy Agreement and the way to combat climate change.
The reduction of fossil fuels was already a priority of the environmental policy, which was not only changed after the start of the war by Russia but also the sanctions introduced against the aggressor were added. Sanctions mostly apply to energy carriers, which Russia has been using as political leverage for many years. The created situation showed us that Europe needs reliable corridors for the import of the same products along with the production of green energy. This situation opens completely new opportunities for several countries, among which Georgia occupies a key place – Georgia, which is an important link of the middle corridor. READ MORE

  • Thursday, 16 February 2023, 11:47
Markets The Rising Significance of the Middle Corridor

Vusal GULIYEV By Vusal GULIYEV, Visiting Research Fellow at the Asian Studies Center of Boğaziçi University

The Russo‑Ukrainian war has affected global container traffic flows more profoundly than any other recent crisis. A series of West‑led sanctions and export restrictions imposed on Moscow has forced logistics companies to avoid shipping consignments via Russia’s Northern Corridor. At the same time, the disruption of operations through the Trans‑Siberian transit line has opened up new avenues for wide‑ranging cooperation along the emerging Trans‑Eurasian transport and trade corridors. The current geopolitical situation in Eastern Europe gives an additional impetus to what countries like Türkiye officially call the Trans‑Caspian East‑West‑Middle Corridor Initiative as well as to a set of containerized rail freight transport networks that traverse Central Asia, the South Caucasus, and Anatolia whilst circumventing Russian territory. This alternative multimodal cross‑regional path—widely known as the Trans‑Caspian International Transport Route (TITR)— could help ease current logistics woes and begin a new chapter in terms of interconnectivity across the Euro‑Asian transportation networks, as global freight flows struggle to pick up speed in the wake of heavy economic sanctions on Kremlin. READ MORE

  • Wednesday, 11 January 2023, 05:50
Security Armenia and Azerbaijan Prepare to Make Peace

Ahmad ALILI Benyamin POGHOSYAN By Ahmad ALILI, Director, Caucasus Policy Analysis Centre, Baku
Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies, Yerevan


On 31 August 2022, the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan, meeting in Brussels under the auspices of European Council president Charles Michel, agreed to authorise their foreign ministers to start immediate negotiations on a peace treaty. Instead, in less than two weeks, the two sides found themselves negotiating yet another ceasefire.
Armenia and Azerbaijan are slowly emerging from a long period of conflict. Over three and a half decades, tens of thousands died in fighting; hundreds of thousands of people were displaced; tens of thousands of landmines and other unexploded ordnance contaminated huge tracts of territory, and war and enmity became the standard narrative with both Armenians and Azerbaijanis. The 1st Karabakh War in the early 1990s resulted in massive loss of territory by Azerbaijan; the 2nd Karabakh War in autumn 2020 changed the reality on the ground for the second time, nearly, but not completely, restoring the status quo ante. READ MORE

  • Wednesday, 12 October 2022, 07:45
All discussions

EGF Head of Research, Dr. George Vlad NICULESCU, co-edited a new volume on “Understanding Contemporary Information Landscape Handbook (UCIL)” with the Austrian National Defence Academy and the PfP Consortium of Defence Academies and Security Studies Institutes: “The idea of this Handbook sprang forth from a policy recommendation issued at a past Regional Stability in the South Caucasus Study Group (RSSC SG) workshop: “Create, with the assistance of PfP Consortium volunteers, a Reference Curriculum on Media Literacy, emphasizing the impact of modern communication techniques and social media on human biology, psychology and behaviour. The aim would be to raise awareness of the media as a tool of hybrid warfare, and how to build resilience to it at individual level.” Looking with an academic eye at the final product of our last three years of work I’d conclude that this Handbook is a great success as a valuable education tool for students and teachers in media studies, politics, international relations. READ MORE

EGF Affiliated Expert Benyamin POGHOSYAN published a new article on “Azerbaijani State System Should Be Changed Fundamentally” with The Armenian Weekly. He concluded: “[…] substantial reforms in Azerbaijan will take years, if not decades, to transform the country and bring it closer to basic democratic standards. Until this happens, the only option to prevent the hard or soft ethnic cleansing of Armenians living in Nagorno Karabakh is the solid and permanent international presence in Nagorno-Karabakh.” READ MORE

EGF Affiliated Expert Nika CHITADZE published a new article with the Center for International Studies of the Black Sea University on “Will Putin Persuade Lukashenko to Involve the Belarusian Army in the War in Ukraine?”. The author thought that if Russian tanks that would likely attack Ukraine across the border with Belarus were accompanied by Belarusian troops this might be a heavy blow for the defenders of Ukraine, as well as for the Belarusians themselves. For the latter it might prove that their Lukashenko, who was "brought on his knees" by his desire to keep his presidential chair with Putin’s aid, succeeded in dividing the centuries-old friendship of the Ukrainian and Belarusian nations. READ MORE

 

On February 7, 2023, the Founder, and former Executive Director of the EGF Dr Marat TERTEROV moderated, and the Head of Research, Dr George Vlad NICULESCU participated in, the first panel of the web-conference on “The War in Ukraine: What Consequences for the Countries of Our Neighbourhood – East and South: What New Challenges for the EU?” organized by the Institute for European Studies of the Saint Louis University Brussels. Click here to read George’s speaking points, here for the conclusions (in French and in English) and here for the summary of presentations (in French only) of the web-conference.

On 03-05 November 2022, Dr. George Vlad Niculescu, Head of Research of the EGF, co-chaired the 24th workshop of the Regional Stability in the South Caucasus Study Group of the PfP Consortium of Defence Academies and Security Studies Institutes on “After 24 February 2022: Imagining South Caucasus Security”, held in Reichenau a/d Rax (Austria). Please click here for the programme and agenda outline, here for his speaking points, and here for the ensuing Policy Recommendations.

  • The Daily BriefMarch 3, 2023
  • Stratfor 2018 Second-Quarter ForecastMarch 11, 2018
  • Stratfor 2018 Annual ForecastDecember 26, 2017
More
EGF Featured Publication, from Affiliated Expert Anna Ohanyan
EGF Featured Publication, from Affiliated Expert Anna Ohanyan
EGF Featured Publication from Affiliated Expert Alan Whitehorn
EGF Featured Publication from Affiliated Expert Alan Whitehorn
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