By Vasif HUSEYNOV, PhD, Head of Department, AIR Center, Adjunct Lecturer, ADA and Khazar Universities, Baku

On July 10, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev met in Abu Dhabi, marking a historic milestone in their ongoing peace process. This summit, as the first bilateral meeting in recent decades without the mediation of a major power, signalled a new phase of direct dialogue between Baku and Yerevan, and followed a format of relations proposed by Baku in December 2024. Unlike previous talks held in EU capitals or Moscow, the United Arab Emirates provided a neutral and geopolitically unaligned platform, enhancing the credibility and focus of the negotiations. The choice of Abu Dhabi, proposed by Azerbaijan, underscored a push for strategic autonomy and a departure from stalled, externally brokered talks that have historically struggled to deliver results. READ MORE

By Shanthie Mariet D’Souza, PhD, founder & president, Mantraya Institute for Strategic Studies (MISS)

While the intention to reset China-India bilateral relations seems real, both the drivers and the outcomes need a careful analysis.
We live in a world of constant flux. Nations, over time, discover a variety of reasons – geopolitical or otherwise – to become friends or foes, based on their national interests. China-India relations aren’t immune from this truism. The trend in the past decade has seen the two neighbours embracing each other and then falling out. And after years of bickering and contestation, the time has come again for them to explore yet another round of engagement. Is the current rapprochement merely opportunistic and temporary? Or is it geared toward a long-term solution of their contestations driven by extraneous factors and geopolitical uncertainty?
On July 23, the 34th meeting of the Working Mechanism for Consultation and Coordination on China-India Border Affairs took place in New Delhi. The meeting discussed issues relating to strengthening border management and maintaining calm along their contested border. More concrete discussions on the “boundary question” are expected to be held when the special representatives of both countries meet for the 24th time later this year. READ MORE

By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Senior Research Fellow at the APRI Armenia
Lara SETRAKIAN, President, APRI Armenia

Political scientists and wider civil society from Armenia and Azerbaijan don’t often see eye to eye. After decades of war between the two countries their grievances run deep, with each side blaming the other for continued rounds of conflict. But experts in Yerevan and Baku can now agree on one thing: the meeting held in Abu Dhabi on July 10 between their heads of government was a moment of respite for the South Caucasus. After months without a major meeting between the two sides (the leaders met briefly at the margins of the European Political Community summit in Tirana in May), Abu Dhabi was able to host their most comprehensive gathering in known history, attended by representatives who cover all key aspects of the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process. Still, expectations should be managed. The two sides may yet be very far from signing a peace agreement, though a draft was announced earlier this year. There are thorny issues, like border demarcation, that remain unresolved. And there are competing visions for how the future of transport links should evolve. Nonetheless, the Abu Dhabi meeting has revived the diplomatic track, giving new hope for peace and stability, while calming fears of an imminent outbreak of war. READ MORE

By Yeghia TASHJIAN, Beirut-based regional analyst and researcher, columnist, "The Armenian Weekly”

On June 13, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced the launch of Operation Rising Lion, aimed at striking Iran’s nuclear facilities and missile capabilities. On the first day of the conflict, Israel targeted Iranian nuclear scientists, Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) officials and later, energy infrastructure and residential areas. In response, Iran launched Operation True Promise-3, sending a missile barrage targeting key infrastructure in Israeli cities, mainly Tel Aviv and Haifa. It is worth mentioning that the Israeli operation took place just two days before the American and Iranian sides planned to hold their sixth round of nuclear talks. By striking first, Israel has blocked the door to diplomacy and now hopes to drag the United States into another regional war, as if the horrors of the 2003 Iraq invasion haven’t disappeared from the Middle East’s collective memory. READ MORE

By Vasif HUSEYNOV, PhD, Head of Department, AIR Center, Adjunct Lecturer, ADA and Khazar Universities, Baku

On June 27, Russian special forces conducted a violent raid in Ekaterinburg targeting ethnic Azerbaijanis. This sparked a significant escalation in tensions between Baku and Moscow, further straining an already fragile bilateral relationship. The operation, which focused on a group of Azerbaijanis suspected of murder in the early 2000s, resulted in the extrajudicial killing of two brothers, Ziyaddin and Huseyn Safarov, and injuries to several others, with nine individuals detained. According to Azerbaijani media, the raid involved brutal tactics, including beatings, electric shocks, and degrading treatment, prompting a fierce reaction from Baku. Azerbaijan’s Foreign Ministry issued a strong response, demanding a prompt investigation and prosecution of those responsible, and the country’s Prosecutor General launched a criminal case accusing Russian police of torturing and deliberately killing the brothers. Azerbaijani authorities and media have framed the incident as a deliberate act of ethnic violence, with the Prosecutor General’s office alleging that the brothers died from “post-traumatic shock” after severe beating”. READ MORE

By Shanthie Mariet D’Souza, PhD, founder & president, Mantraya Institute for Strategic Studies (MISS)

Yoga, which originated in ancient India, features many asanas (physical postures) focused on enabling the human body to find a fine balance, while stretching the limbs to achieve maximum flexibility. India uses yoga as a tool of its soft power, celebrating International Yoga Day on June 21 every year, and the present Indian foreign policy making often mirrors such asanas. When faced with stark situations such as taking sides between warring states, New Delhi tends to fall back on a balancing act, avoiding taking sides and advocating diplomacy and de-escalation. However, finding the right balance in matters of statecraft is a tough task, particularly when one side has been perceived to be favoured over the other in the past, but those warm relations are no longer the same. India’s stance on the Israel-Iran conflict contains many such contradictions. READ MORE

By Vasif HUSEYNOV, PhD, Head of Department, AIR Center, Adjunct Lecturer, ADA and Khazar Universities, Baku

The Informal Summit of the Organization of Turkic States (OTS), held on May 20-21, 2025, in Budapest, Hungary, marked a significant milestone in the organisation’s growing geopolitical influence. Hosted by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, the summit brought together leaders from Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Türkiye, and Uzbekistan, alongside observer states Hungary, Turkmenistan, and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus. This gathering, the first OTS summit hosted by an observer state, underscored Hungary’s role as a bridge between the Turkic world and Europe, reflecting the theme “Meeting Point of East and West”. The summit culminated in the adoption of the Budapest Declaration, a strategic roadmap that reaffirmed the OTS’s commitment to unity, cooperation, and addressing global challenges. This event highlighted the organisation’s evolution into a formidable geopolitical player, particularly for Central Asian states and Azerbaijan, as they navigate complex regional dynamics to safeguard their independence and counter threats to their security. READ MORE

By Shanthie Mariet D’Souza, PhD, founder & president, Mantraya Institute for Strategic Studies (MISS)

The objective of connecting the Central Asian economies with those of South Asia has, for a very long time, been a much sought-after, and yet unattained, goal. Both regions see immense potential in connectivity projects that can contribute significantly to their national economies and bind countries in a mutually beneficial economic framework. While the Central Asian states have been at the forefront of pushing such projects forward, progress has been frustratingly slow. Uzbekistan has taken on a leadership role in the region and made Afghanistan the centrepiece of its connectivity projects with South Asia. Will India, the biggest economy in South Asia, bite the bait? READ MORE

By Vasif HUSEYNOV, PhD, Head of Department, AIR Center, Adjunct Lecturer, ADA and Khazar Universities, Baku

On April 25, the EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kaja Kallas paid a visit to Azerbaijan. This was the first visit of the EU’s top diplomat to Baku in the past nine years. Both sides gave positive messages during the visit about the existing situation in bilateral relations and future prospects. President Ilham Aliyev reaffirmed Azerbaijan’s position as a dependable EU partner, drawing attention to the Southern Gas Corridor’s steady supply of natural gas to Europe over the past four years. Currently, ten European nations – eight of them EU members – receive Azerbaijani gas, positioning Baku as a major contributor to the continent’s energy security. Aliyev also pointed to effective collaboration under the Southern Gas Corridor Advisory Council and noted promising opportunities in renewable energy. Azerbaijan’s involvement in advancing the Trans-Caspian Energy Corridor and joint Black Sea energy projects with countries like Georgia, Romania, Hungary, and Bulgaria was also underscored. READ MORE

By Vasif HUSEYNOV, PhD, Head of Department, AIR Center, Adjunct Lecturer, ADA and Khazar Universities, Baku

On April 15–16, the newly elected President of Georgia, Mikheil Kavelashvili, paid an official visit to Azerbaijan. The visit was of notable symbolic importance since it was Kavelashvili’s first foreign visit as president. The Azerbaijani side appreciated this gesture, as Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev stated in the joint press conference with Kavelashvili, “It once again reflects the essence of Azerbaijan-Georgia relations and the friendship and brotherhood between our peoples”. Earlier on January 17, the re-elected Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze also paid his first official visit to the Azerbaijani capital after the elections. Aliyev characterized this as the emergence of a “wonderful tradition” and underlined its symbolic importance of the relations between the two countries. READ MORE

By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Senior Research Fellow at the APRI Armenia


The promise to end the war in Ukraine quickly was one of Donald J. Trump’s main campaign pledges. Upon returning to the White House in January 2025, the president began taking steps toward this goal. The world witnessed a whirlwind of negotiations: face-to-face meetings between Mr. Trump’s envoy, Steven Witkoff, and Russian President Vladimir Putin; multiple phone calls between Mr. Trump and Presidents Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky; direct US–Russia and US–Ukraine talks in Saudi Arabia; and a tense meeting in the Oval Office with Mr. Zelensky.
As a result, Russia and Ukraine agreed to suspend attacks on each other’s energy infrastructure for one month. Negotiations are now underway for a broader ceasefire. It is too early to assess the likelihood of a complete and lasting ceasefire — let alone the prospects for a comprehensive peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine. READ MORE

By Vasif HUSEYNOV, PhD, Head of Department, AIR Center, Adjunct Lecturer, ADA and Khazar Universities, Baku

Armenia and Azerbaijan remain at an impasse in their ongoing peace process, facing the conditions of withdrawing international lawsuits and agreeing on a ban against third-party military forces along their border. Armenia’s constitutional claims over Karabakh and the dissolution of the OSCE Minsk Group remain sensitive topics. Azerbaijan insists on amending Armenia’s constitution to eliminate future territorial disputes, while Armenia faces legal and political hurdles in making such changes. Disagreements over reopening transportation links further hinder the peace process. Azerbaijan demands an “unimpeded” land passage to its Nakhchivan exclave via Armenia’s Meghri region, while Armenia insists on controlled transit. This unresolved dispute continues to block progress toward a final agreement. READ MORE

By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies


Currently, the situation is intriguing. Both sides claim substantial progress in peace talks. At the December 5 Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Ministerial Council, Armenia’s foreign minister announced that the preamble to the peace agreement text and 15 out of its 17 articles had been finalized. The Armenian prime minister later stated that 90% of the text was agreed. However, according to the Azerbaijani state-affiliated think tank AIR Center, at least three contentious issues remain unresolved: the presence of the European Union (EU) mission in Armenia, constitutional and legal changes in Armenia, and the withdrawal of Armenia’s legal cases against Azerbaijan in international courts. Baku has also proposed two other preconditions to any peace agreement. These include dissolving the OSCE Minsk Group and establishing a “Zangezur corridor” free of Armenian control. READ MORE

By Vusal GULIYEV, Head of Shanghai Office at AZEGLOB Consulting Group and Policy Expert at the Baku-based Topchubashov Center

The Organization of Turkic States (OTS) has gained renewed significance amid global geopolitical unrest and economic uncertainty. As regional tensions rise, member states are leveraging shared linguistic, cultural, and historical ties to foster closer economic, political, and security cooperation. The OTS aims to enhance intra-regional trade, energy collaboration, and collective resilience, positioning itself as a key player in stabilizing and advancing the interests of the Turkic world in an increasingly volatile global landscape.The recent regional events and the geopolitical consequences of the Russo-Ukrainian war have had a profound impact on the dynamics among Türkiye, Azerbaijan, and the Central Asian Turkic states (Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan). This shifting geopolitical landscape has been the catalyst of collaboration and integration for these countries under the Organization of Turkic States (OTS), an intergovernmental organization that aims to foster cooperation among Turkic-speaking nations. READ MORE

By Yeghia TASHJIAN, Beirut-based regional analyst and researcher, columnist, "The Armenian Weekly”

With the world’s focus on Russia and its war in Ukraine, China has been advancing its influence through the Belt and Road Initiative, amid Iran’s political and military withdrawal from the Levant. Turkey, through the Organization of Turkic States (OTS), has been expanding its footprint in Central Asia. Ankara aims to increase its political and economic influence over the region by promoting regional stability and building stronger ties. Its objectives can be categorized as follows:

• Pan-Turkism: Turkey sees itself as the head of the Turkic-speaking peoples in the South Caucasus and Central Asia. Using various tools and strategies, Turkey aims to enhance its cultural, historical and linguistic ties. For instance, in September 2024, the Turkic Academy agreed on a common 34-letter alphabet that would help the 170 million Turkic people worldwide understand and cooperate with each other more effectively.
• The OTS is also another way for Turkey to position itself in a vital role amid regional political dynamics. Central Asia looks to balance relationships with Russia and China, while the U.S. is working to undermine their influence, making Turkey an appealing partner for Central Asian states that seek to diversify their foreign relations and avoid dependence on a single external power. These states engage in multilateral forums such as the OTS and strengthen bilateral ties, such as when Turkey and Kazakhstan signed a deal to become strategic partners.

By Eugene KOGAN, Tbilisi-based defence and security expert

Georgian parliamentary elections on 26 October 2024 have been highly contested with the opposition claiming that their win was stolen from them by the incumbent Georgian Dream party. As a result, the opposition initiated a legal procedure, demanded new elections and started peaceful protests against the election result, apparently to no avail. On 16 November, Georgia’s Central Election Commission validated the results of October’s highly contested elections, despite weeks of protests by the opposition and accusations of widespread fraud and Russian interference that were refuted by the Kremlin. This AIES Comment provides a perspective based on a combination of issues that highlight not just a divided but also a traumatised Georgian society that remembers the August 2008 war and is not ready to fight Russia again nor to deal with potential Russian interference. READ MORE

By Yeghia TASHJIAN, Beirut-based regional analyst and researcher, columnist, "The Armenian Weekly”

When on November 24, a U.S.-mediated ceasefire was brokered between Lebanon and Israel, many did not imagine that within days the Turkish-backed Syrian rebel factions would storm Aleppo and capture the city in less than 36 hours. There are a lot of questions about the preparation and readiness of the Syrian army. However, it was clear that the current status quo under President Bashar al-Assad would not be preserved for a long time, as the country was fragmented and in need of conflict resolution, not conflict management. Since the same regional actors involved in the South Caucasus — Iran, Russia, and Turkey — are also in Syria supporting opposite sides, there are concerns that the fire may expand beyond the Middle East. On November 29, the former al-Qaida associated group currently branded as ‘Hai’at Tahrir al-Sham’ (HTS) along with armed factions from the Turkish-backed ‘Syrian National Army’ (some of whom fought as mercenaries against Armenians in the 2020 war in Artsakh) and some mercenaries from Central Asia and the Caucasus entered the second largest city of Syria. READ MORE

By Nvard CHALIKYAN, Research Fellow, APRI Armenia
Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Senior Research Fellow, APRI Armenia
Verej ISANIANS, Senior Editor, APRI Armenia

The South Caucasus is an important Eurasian political and economic hub, as its transport networks have the potential to facilitate travel across the continent. Control over the South Caucasus grants access to the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea basin, serving as a gateway to Central Asia and the Greater Middle East. Given its strategic importance, regional powers such as Russia, Türkiye, and Iran have vied for influence in the South Caucasus for centuries. In recent years, the demand for alternative transport corridors has surged amid the ongoing Ukraine war, sanctions on Russia, conflicts in the West Asia (Middle East) region, and the resulting difficulties with traditional supply routes such as the Suez Canal. Consequently, the South Caucasus has become increasingly important as a link between Asia, Europe, and Russia. READ MORE

By Tabib Huseynov, independent policy analyst and researcher

In October 2024, the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan simultaneously approved a Protocol regulating the joint work of their respective border delimitation commissions. Originally signed in August, this Protocol sets the legal and procedural framework for the subsequent border delimitation process between the two South Caucasus neighbours, who have been locked in a territorial dispute for over three decades. The protocol’s enactment in both countries became possible after Armenia’s Constitutional Court issued a landmark Decision No. 1749 on 26 September 2024, confirming that the border delimitation agreement complied with Armenia’s Constitution. As border delimitation is a key issue in the post-war normalization process between Armenia and Azerbaijan, this favourable decision was widely anticipated. However, the Court’s Decision is remarkable not for its outcome, but rather its legal rationale, which traps Armenia in a legal and political Catch-22. READ MORE

By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

China is a relatively new player in the South Caucasus but has growing interests, particularly in the economic domain. While Beijing established diplomatic ties with Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia in the early 1990s, it largely stayed out of the region’s geopolitics. Armenia acquired Chinese-made WM-80 multiple-launch systems in 1999, but they had little impact on the military balance with Azerbaijan. Chinese economic ties with the South Caucasus began to grow in the early 2000s, driven by the rapid expansion of its economy. Interest in the region deepened after President Xi Jinping announced the Belt and Road Initiative in 2013, with the South Caucasus envisioned as a potential land route connecting China to Europe. READ MORE

By Eugene KOGAN, Tbilisi-based defence and security expert

Georgian parliamentary elections on 26 October 2024 have been highly contested with the opposition claiming that their win was stolen from them by the incumbent Georgian Dream party. As a result, the opposition initiated a legal procedure, demanded new elections and started peaceful protests against the election result, apparently to no avail. On 16 November, Georgia’s Central Election Commission validated the results of October’s highly contested elections, despite weeks of protests by the opposition and accusations of widespread fraud and Russian interference that were refuted by the Kremlin. This AIES Comment provides a perspective based on a combination of issues that highlight not just a divided but also a traumatised Georgian society that remembers the August 2008 war and is not ready to fight Russia again nor to deal with potential Russian interference. READ MORE

By Vasif HUSEYNOV, PhD, Head of Department, AIR Center, Adjunct Lecturer, ADA and Khazar Universities, Baku

On October 3, Ashgabat, Turkmenistan hosted a high-level event in collaboration with the European Union, the Central Asian countries located along the Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor (also known as the Middle Corridor), the South Caucasus states, and Türkiye, as well as the major international financial institutions. The event resulted in the establishment of a Coordination Platform for the Middle Corridor. According to the European Union, the Coordination Platform will focus on promoting the transit corridor and implementing priority infrastructure projects while coordinating investments in the South Caucasus and Türkiye. The European Union announced plans to launch a regional transport program in 2025 to support infrastructure development and provide technical assistance for improving standards, digitalization, and interoperability across the region. The Middle Corridor is an essential route that will allow Central Asia to better access Europe without having to go through sanctioned Russia, but it still faces numerous economic, logistical, and political roadblocks in its development. READ MORE

By Tabib Huseynov, independent policy analyst and researcher

In a move that has left many in Armenia, Azerbaijan, and beyond scratching their heads, the Armenian Constitutional Court adopted on September 26 a landmark ruling No. 1749, greenlighting the border delimitation process with Azerbaijan. The text of the ruling (henceforth referred to as Ruling 1749 or simply, the ruling) was published three days later over the weekend, which invites questions about whether this delay was intended to minimize scrutiny as the initial news cycle on the decision faded and public attention shifted elsewhere. Some Armenian commentators hailed the ruling, claiming it invalidates Baku's criticism that Armenia's Constitution harbours territorial claims against Azerbaijan. On October 4, Armenian foreign ministry spokesperson Ani Badalyan echoed this argument, claiming the ruling proves Armenia’s Constitution contains no territorial claims. READ MORE

Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

APRI Armenia, in cooperation with the Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Freedom Yerevan Office, conducted a research project from July to September 2024 to assess the geopolitical future of the South Caucasus. The report analysed the primary external factors influencing regional geopolitics. It assessed possible future developments in the South Caucasus, focusing on Armenian foreign policy diversification, the prospects of Armenia–Azerbaijan negotiations, the possible future of Georgian foreign policy, and Azerbaijan’s quest for a new foreign policy vision after the military takeover of Nagorno-Karabakh and the forced displacement of its Armenian population in September 2023. READ MORE

Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

On October 26, 2024, parliamentary elections were held in Georgia. Long before election day, they were called the most crucial Georgian elections since the 2003 Rose Revolution. Opposition parties presented the election as a choice between Russia and Europe, while the ruling Georgian Dream Party described it as a choice between peace and war. In both cases, geopolitics played a significant role.
The opposition accused the Georgian Dream of steering Georgia away from European integration. At the same time, the government claimed that the opposition sought to open a second front against Russia, transforming Georgia into another Ukraine. Georgian Dream even displayed posters on Tbilisi streets contrasting images of a peaceful Tbilisi with war-ravaged Ukrainian cities. Recent actions by the Georgian government, including the passage of a law on transparency of foreign influence and an anti-LGBT propaganda law, have strained Georgia’s relations with the West. The European Union halted the accession process and cancelled funding from the European Peace Facility, while the United States imposed sanctions on several Georgian officials. READ MORE

By Vasif HUSEYNOV, PhD, Head of Department, AIR Center, Adjunct Lecturer, ADA and Khazar Universities, Baku

On August 20, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Azerbaijan declared the country had officially applied for membership in BRICS. BRICS is an intergovernmental cooperation platform that originally comprised Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, and now includes five new members that include Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates. This announcement followed Azerbaijan’s initial declaration of its desire to join the bloc, revealed in the China-Azerbaijan joint declaration on establishing a strategic partnership. This was adopted by the two countries’ leaders on July 3 during the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit in Astana, Kazakhstan. The declaration highlights Azerbaijan’s intent to join BRICS and emphasizes China’s support for this initiative. Azerbaijan’s bid has also been backed by Russia, with the Kremlin expressing support for Baku’s application on several occasions over the past two months. READ MORE

By Fuad Shahbazov, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

Israeli President Isaac Herzog concluded his historic first visit to Albania in September, shortly after his first-ever trip to Serbia, where both sides agreed to deepen bilateral cooperation amid Israel's extending military campaign against Hamas and Hezbollah in Southern Lebanon. Although the recent intensive diplomatic dialogue between Israel and Balkan states is gaining more impetus, it is not a new phenomenon. In the last five years, much has been done to ensure Israel’s expanding diplomatic, security, and economic ties with the Balkans, particularly with Albania and Serbia. In light of the worsening geopolitical tensions in the Middle East after the Hamas attack on Israel in October 2023 and Israel’s large-scale military campaign in Gaza and Southern Lebanon, Tel Aviv sought to build new alliances and partnerships at a critical time. READ MORE

By Vasif HUSEYNOV, PhD, Head of Department, AIR Center, Adjunct Lecturer, ADA and Khazar Universities, Baku

On August 18–19, Russian President Vladimir Putin paid a two-day visit to Azerbaijan. This marked the first state visit by a Russian president to the South Caucasian republic and only the second visit in the bilateral relationship since former Azerbaijani President Heydar Aliyev’s trip to Moscow in 2002. Contrary to expectations from local observers, the visit did not yield any significant agreements or binding political and economic arrangements. A few announcements were made regarding future joint initiatives, including cooperation on food security, labour inspections, the establishment of a Russian-Azerbaijani university, and the joint production of oil tankers. An agreement was also reached to expand the partnership between Russia’s public joint-stock company (PJSC) Gazprom and the State Oil Company of the Republic of Azerbaijan (SOCAR) . Gazprom CEO Alexey Miller revealed that the two sides agreed to broaden their “multifaceted strategic partnership,” particularly concerning the International North-South Transportation Corridor (INSTC) project. He also mentioned the planned signing of a comprehensive scientific and technical cooperation program in September. While few details were disclosed, this marked their first public reference to the INSTC project, about which little is currently known. Putin’s visit to Azerbaijan demonstrates how Russia seeks to maintain its influence in the region, which could lead to neighbouring states, such as Iran and Armenia, feeling threatened. READ MORE

By Fuad Shahbazov, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

Israeli President Isaac Herzog concluded his historic first visit to Albania in September, shortly after his first-ever trip to Serbia, where both sides agreed to deepen bilateral cooperation amid Israel's extending military campaign against Hamas and Hezbollah in Southern Lebanon. Although the recent intensive diplomatic dialogue between Israel and Balkan states is gaining more impetus, it is not a new phenomenon. In the last five years, much has been done to ensure Israel’s expanding diplomatic, security, and economic ties with the Balkans, particularly with Albania and Serbia. In light of the worsening geopolitical tensions in the Middle East after the Hamas attack on Israel in October 2023 and Israel’s large-scale military campaign in Gaza and Southern Lebanon, Tel Aviv sought to build new alliances and partnerships at a critical time. READ MORE

By Fuad Shahbazov, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

On June 11, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan attended a session of the BRICS group (a loose political-economic grouping originally consisting of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) in Moscow. While there, he met with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, and Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu. During the face-to-face meeting with Putin, Fidan discussed bilateral economic and political relations, focusing on the geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East caused by the war in Gaza. Putin vowed to “fully support” Turkish membership in BRICS and build stronger ties to facilitate further economic cooperation. Fidan’s visit to Russia came shortly after he visited China, where he reiterated Ankara’s willingness to join BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). These pronouncements have raised eyebrows in the West. US Ambassador to Türkiye Jeff Flake declared that Türkiye’s place is “in the West” and voiced his hope that Ankara would decide against joining the bloc. READ MORE

Umida Tukhtasheva,
Deputy Director of the Anti-Corruption Agency of the Republic of Uzbekistan, LL.D., Professor

Over the years of independence, the role of civil society in Uzbekistan has become increasingly important. The representatives of civil society are not only involved, but also actively take the initiative in the life of society and the state. This role has manifested itself more and more clearly in the fight against corruption. There is no doubt that corruption and society are incompatible. The prerequisite for a prosperous society is a life free of corruption. And all the necessary foundations must be laid for this, which is primarily the task of the state. READ MORE

By Yeghia TASHJIAN, Beirut-based regional analyst and researcher, columnist, "The Armenian Weekly”

On August 29, 2023, in my article “What does the expansion of BRICS mean for the South Caucasus?” I argued that Iran’s accession to BRICS and the integration of the region’s infrastructure into the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) would similarly increase pressure on Armenia and Azerbaijan to join the bloc. The post-2020 regional status quo and the war in Ukraine have opened the path for new Eurasian actors such as India and China to exert their influence on the South Caucasus. Azerbaijan is the main beneficiary of this development. Positioned strategically along the North-South and East-West transport corridors, Baku has capitalized on its position to become a pivotal transportation and logistics hub in Eurasia. This has caught the attention of China amid the geopolitical shifts that took place in the South Caucasus in light of the second Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh) and Ukraine wars. READ MORE

By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

Since the end of the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War in 2020, Armenia and Azerbaijan have been engaged in negotiations to sign a peace agreement. The process seems like a roller coaster of extreme ups and downs, reflecting the volatile and unpredictable nature of the discussions. Several times, the sides have seemed close to reaching a deal only for an unexpected circumstance to arise, causing a significant reversal during the peace talks. In late 2022, after intensive negotiations in Washington and Prague, Azerbaijan refused to appear in Brussels and instead launched a blockade of the self-proclaimed Nagorno-Karabakh Republic. Azerbaijan did the same at the end of 2023, when despite mounting hopes for an imminent agreement President Aliyev refused to attend the European Political Community (EPC) summit in October 2023 in Granada and the trilateral Armenia–Azerbaijan–European Union summit in Brussels. READ MORE

By Vasif HUSEYNOV, PhD, Head of Department, AIR Center, Adjunct Lecturer, ADA and Khazar Universities, Baku

A long road has been passed since Armenia and Azerbaijan were fighting a violent war that erupted in the wake of the deadlock in the peace negotiations for around three decades. As President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan rightfully said, the chance for peace was eventually brought about by the war in 2020 that put an end to the occupation of the Azerbaijani territories. Having liberated its occupied territories, Azerbaijan immediately initiated a peace treaty with Armenia based on the fundamental principles of international relations, including mutual recognition of each other’s territorial integrity and non-use of force. It is a telling fact that Azerbaijan put forward this initiative in March 2022, when the Armenian separatist regime still had some control over the parts of the Karabakh region where Russia’s peacekeeping mission was temporarily deployed. This clearly manifested Baku’s intention to peacefully reintegrate the Armenian population in the Karabakh region and diplomatically resolve the remaining disputes with Armenia. READ MORE

By Yeghia TASHJIAN, Beirut-based regional analyst and researcher, columnist, "The Armenian Weekly”

On May 13, 2024, Iran and India signed a historic deal under which New Delhi was granted the right to develop and operate the Iranian port of Chabahar on the Gulf of Oman. India has been eying this port for the past two decades to export goods to Iran, Afghanistan and Central Asian countries and bypass the Chinese-developed ports of Gwadar and Karachi in Pakistan. Commenting on the deal after the signing ceremony in Tehran, India’s Shipping Minister Sarbananda Sonowal said, “Chabahar Port’s significance transcends its role as a mere conduit between India and Iran; it serves as a vital trade artery connecting India with Afghanistan and Central Asian Countries.” Under this agreement, the Indian Ports Global Limited (IPGL) company will invest $120 million in the port with an additional $250 million in financing. Within this context, Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar told reporters in Mumbai that this deal will open the path for new, larger investments to be made in the port. READ MORE

Nilufar Doniyorkhodjaeva,
Head of Department Development Strategy Center,
Tashkent, Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan has been undergoing a transformational journey since it changed political leadership in 2016. The nation is implementing extensive reforms aimed at spanning anti-corruption measures, business climate enhancements, judicial reforms, improving labour conditions, administrative efficiency, protection of human rights, and good governance. READ MORE

By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

Armenia is still absorbing the implications of the protests that overwhelmed Yerevan on May 9. On April 19, 2024, the Armenian and Azerbaijani border delimitation and demarcation commissions signed the protocol on the delimitation and demarcation process in the Tavush region of Armenia. That agreement granted Azerbaijan control over a patch of territory along that border that had been officially part of Soviet Azerbaijan but controlled by Armenia since the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991. The movement “Tavush for the Motherland” started with the closure of the Armenia-Georgia interstate highway near the village of Kirants in the Tavush region, one of the villages that was going to be affected by the process. Later, it transformed into a march towards Yerevan. Protestors led by Tavush Archbishop Bagrat reached Yerevan on May 9, 2024, and at a rally asked for Prime Minister Pashinyan's resignation. The rally was followed by several rallies in Yerevan in the last two weeks, sometimes accompanied by clashes with police. READ MORE

By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

As the global order continues to morph into a more complex architecture with an array of global and regional powers, the geopolitical future of the South Caucasus hangs in the balance. The tectonic changes in the region of the last four years – the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war, the regional implications of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the military takeover of Nagorno-Karabakh by Azerbaijan, and forced displacement of Armenians, the EU candidate status for Georgia and Georgia’s quest for multi-vector foreign policy including the establishment of strategic partnership with China, the limbo in Armenia–Azerbaijan negotiations, growing assertiveness of Azerbaijan and eventual move of Armenia towards closer cooperation with the EU and the US – all make the situation quite complex. READ MORE

Yu. Imomova
Research fellow
Institute for Prospective International Studies
Under UWED

In recent years, the main principle of the foreign policy of the Republic of Uzbekistan has been the establishment of good neighborly relations, in particular, strengthening economic ties with Afghanistan, providing comprehensive assistance in preventing a humanitarian crisis in this country, implementing the Trans-Afghan railway project, cooperating on the Kosh-Tepa canal project, and other issues. Evidence supporting this perspective is the strategic focus of the Republic of Uzbekistan's development plan for 2022-2026, which emphasizes fostering comprehensive relations with Afghanistan and aiding its socio-economic revitalization. READ MORE

On May 29, at the UN headquarters in New York, during the 40th session of the states parties to the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR), elections were held for nine members of the Human Rights Committee (HRC) for the 2025-2028 term.

Representatives from 16 states, including Burundi, Georgia, Egypt, India, Spain, Cameroon, Côte d'Ivoire, Lithuania, Morocco, Paraguay, the Republic of Korea, North Macedonia, Togo, Uzbekistan, Croatia, Ethiopia, and South Africa, competed for the nine seats in the HRC. READ MORE

By Yeghia TASHJIAN, Beirut-based regional analyst and researcher, columnist, "The Armenian Weekly”

On April 17, 2024, Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, at a meeting with the residents of Kirants village in the Tavush region, said that for the past 30 years, the residents have lived “in the conditions of lawlessness, and the time has come to put an end to this, to establish a rule of law” in the region. The PM added: “Our idea is for you not to say Azerbaijan is 50 meters away, but to say, wow, it is good that Azerbaijan is 50 meters away. We will trade there. We will build the economy there. Maybe we will build another checkpoint. Cars will come and go and pay the Republic of Armenia.” He later continued: “Now you can say to me: Do you 100-percent guarantee that you will do this? I will answer, I don’t guarantee 100-percent, but I know that by taking step by step, we will reach 90-percent or even more.” Azerbaijan insists that there are four bordering villages near Armenia’s Tavush and Azerbaijan’s Qazax region that must be ceded to Azerbaijan. Baku argues that these villages were taken by Armenian forces in the early 1990s.” READ MORE

President Shavkat Mirziyoyev will pay a state visit to Tajikistan on April 18-19 at the invitation of President Emomali Rahmon.

As close neighbors whose peoples are historically and culturally inseparable from each other, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan have brought their relations to the level of strategic partnership and alliance.
The close and constructive political dialog established between the leaders of the two countries, supported by regular bilateral and multilateral meetings, plays a huge role in the development of mutually beneficial and fruitful cooperation. READ MORE

Uzbekistan, and Tashkent in particular, is becoming the venue for an important international forum that should give a practical vector to a new format of interregional cooperation based on the traditions of centuries-old exchanges between the peoples of Central Asia and the Arab States of the Gulf and today's huge potential for mutually beneficial co-operation.

The first ministerial meeting of the Gulf Cooperation Council-Central Asia Strategic Dialogue was held on 7 September 2022 in Riyadh, the capital of Saudi Arabia. READ MORE

By Yeghia TASHJIAN, Beirut-based regional analyst and researcher, columnist, "The Armenian Weekly”

Amid increasing tensions between Russia and Armenia, and Azerbaijan’s growing pressure on Armenia to annex new border villages, the first week of March was characterized by intensive official Armenian- Iranian meetings. What is the nature of these meetings? Is there any coincidence with the timing? And what can Iran do to defuse tensions between Yerevan and Moscow?
On March 6, 2024, a delegation headed by Armenia’s Defence Minister Suren Papikyan visited Iran and met with Iranian officials. In Papikyan’s meeting with his Iranian counterpart Brigadier General Mohammad-Reza Ashtiani, the Iranian minister reaffirmed his country’s position supporting Armenia’s territorial integrity and national sovereignty over its entire territory and opposing a change in internationally recognized borders in the region. He also expressed support for direct negotiations between Yerevan and Baku that aim “to bring peace and security to the region.” However, Ashtiani warned that the pursuit of security from outside the region would backfire and create instability, adding “The architecture of regional security must be formed in the region itself, otherwise it will become a battlefield for major powers.” READ MORE

By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

The September 2023 military takeover of Nagorno-Karabakh by Azerbaijan was a watershed moment in the conflict. Azerbaijan achieved a decisive victory by force, defying decades-long widespread perception among OSCE Co-chair countries and other actors that the conflict had no military solution. Many expected that the demise of the self-proclaimed Nagorno-Karabakh Republic would pave the way for the Armenia – Azerbaijan peace agreement, thus bringing long-awaited stability to the region. However, it appeared that the issue of Nagorno-Karabakh was only one part of the bigger puzzle of Armenia–Azerbaijan relations. After September 2023, Azerbaijan brought back the narrative of a corridor via Armenia to connect Azerbaijan with Nakhichevan, despite the fact that there was no Lachin corridor anymore connecting Armenia with Nagorno-Karabakh and started to highlight the necessity to change the Armenian constitution and other laws READ MORE

By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

Armenia and Turkey started a new phase of normalization at the end of 2021, appointing special representatives to draw up recommendations. From the beginning, Turkey stated that the process should be carried out without any preconditions. However, in the last two years Ankara has put forward various preconditions and failed to take steps agreed upon during negotiations.
Armenia–Turkey relations have always been a significant factor impacting regional geopolitics in the South Caucasus. In the period between the first and the second Nagorno-Karabakh wars, many viewed the normalization of Armenia–Turkey relations as having the power to help settle the conflict. Another significant factor influencing the process was the West’s perception that Armenia–Turkey normalization might enable Armenia to reduce its dependence on Russia, as “without fear of Turkey, Armenia will need Russia less. READ MORE