By Fuad Shahbazov, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

On February 14, Türkiye’s Energy Minister, Alparaslan Bayraktar, announced that a new energy agreement was signed with Turkmenistan, strengthening the bilateral relations between Ankara and Ashgabat. The main stakeholders of the agreement are Türkiye’s state-owned pipeline operator BOTAŞ and Turkmenistan’s state-owned Turkmengaz. The new agreement envisages 2 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas flow from Turkmenistan to Türkiye through Iran via its existing natural gas network, which began on March 1. The new swap agreement is a remarkable milestone in enhancing Türkiye’s energy security and attempts to diversify its supply sources. READ MORE

By Vasif HUSEYNOV, PhD, Head of Department, AIR Center, Adjunct Lecturer, ADA and Khazar Universities, Baku

On May 14, Turkish Minister of Energy and Natural Resources Alparslan Bayraktar and Azerbaijani Minister of Economy Mikail Jabbarov signed an agreement on cooperation in the field of natural gas, including the export of Central Asian gas to Türkiye. Bayraktar told the media that by 2030, Türkiye is expected to receive increased gas supplies from Azerbaijan’s natural gas deposits and the Caspian Sea’s natural gas reserves, though he did not specify how much. Some of the gas flowing to Türkiye will transit onward to Europe. Bayraktar highlighted that a key aspect of the deal was arrangements for transporting Turkmen natural gas to Türkiye via Georgia and Azerbaijan. In recent years, traditionally isolated Turkmenistan has begun to seek more cooperation with outside partners, especially in the energy sector. The transit of Turkmen gas to Türkiye and onward to European markets would go a long way in removing ongoing reliance on Russian supplies. While Bayraktar did not disclose the planned transit route for the Turkmen gas to Azerbaijan or the amount of gas involved, several recent developments offer hints on how the two sides plan to carry out this project. READ MORE

Sergey Korol,
European Geopolitical Forum

American politics, in general, and its energy version in particular, resemble a chess game but according to the rules of American football. The US plans to become a leading player in the world energy market do not coincide with the interests of other major players, including OPEC countries and Russia. READ MORE

Dr Andrei V. Belyi,
EGF Guest Contributor

A crisis of international governance spreads into the political sphere and puts under peril the peace between the Russia and Ukraine, in addition to heightening tension between Russia and the West. The political rhetoric from Brussels, Moscow and Washington increasingly resembles that of the Cold War. Many ask if there are serious implications in security of energy supply, as well as in investment and trade, either among causes or consequences of current events. The current situation demonstrates a deep vulnerability of states in the face of markets, and will be analysed along three groups of energy implications: transit-supply flows, investments and effects of sanctions. READ MORE

Over the last decade, two energy rings have been forming in the Balkan/Caspian oil and gas pipeline/energy supply route context, first in Turkey and then in Greece. As a result, both countries have been elevated to the role of strategic energy corridor territories, linking the energy-rich Caspian region with Europe. Both Turkey and Greece exhibit vast potential in connecting Caspian supply sources with Western markets, both independently of one another as well as in unison. Taking this into account, the EU and the US in particular have endorsed policies which have privileged Turkey as the main interconnector between Europe and the Caspian in the scramble for European energy security. However, Ankara’s current geopolitical reorientation towards Russia (with whom it has developed a pragmatic, yet strong energy partnership) and the Middle East, along with the several security-political shortcomings that undermine the stability of the Turkish energy grid, might lead toward a rethinking of Western energy policy toward the alternative, emergent Greek (energy) ring. READ MORE