The likeliest scenarios for tomorrow’s Russia [Over] By Marat Terterov, PhD, Founder, and former Executive Director of the EGF
The folly of predicting Russia’s future
When undertaking the task of seeking to forecast a ‘likely scenario’ for tomorrow’s Russia, one has to start with a caveat – predicting Russia’s future and what fate awaits the country in light of its continued military excursion in Ukraine is like trying to find a needle in a haystack. In other words, it is almost impossible to predict future political developments in Russia with any real certainty. This includes any efforts to predict whether Russia will continue to remain the arch belligerent in Ukraine, or whether it will be prepared to make concessions, or to forecast what impact either (or other) of these developments in the current conflict in Ukraine will have on the Russian regime of Vladimir Putin.
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- Wednesday, 27 March 2024, 14:16
The Role of Foreign Actors in the Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict[Over] By Eugene KOGAN, Tbilisi-based defence and security expert
This AIES Focus discusses the four major foreign actors in the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan within the time frame of the last 12 to 18 months. While Russia and Turkey are active and directly involved, China and India are implicitly but not explicitly involved in the conflict. As a result, the author tries to present and highlight the divergent and convergent perspectives of the foreign actors in the conflict. One of the major focal points of the conflict relates to what the Azerbaijani call the Zangezur corridor, and the Armenians perceive as a bone of contention. What is perhaps not least important to emphasise is that for Ilham Aliyev, the President of Azerbaijan, the corridor has a crucial role in the transportation link between Turkey, Azerbaijan and the Turkic States. As for Armenia and Iran, its neighbouring country, the establishment of such a corridor is perceived as an existential threat. READ MORE
- Wednesday, 20 March 2024, 18:26
Eco-Tourism in Uzbekistan: A Journey Towards Sustainability[Over] In the heart of Central Asia, Uzbekistan, a country known for its dazzling architecture and rich history, is emerging as a promising eco-tourism destination.
Eco-tourism in Uzbekistan presents an opportunity to explore the country’s natural beauty while contributing to its sustainable development. As more travelers seek out eco-friendly travel options, Uzbekistan stands as a testament to the power of eco-tourism to transform not just the landscape, but also the lives of the people who call it home.
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- Thursday, 14 March 2024, 17:13
Strategic Abstention: The ‘Axis of Resistance’ Deliberate Inaction in Gaza[Over]
By Fuad SHAHBAZOV, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst
Amid the escalating Gaza war, a striking absence marks the regional conflict landscape: the non-involvement of the ‘Axis of Resistance,’ including Iran and its proxies. Nearly six weeks into the war, these forces have consistently communicated their decision to remain on the sidelines. This inaction comes into sharp focus against the backdrop of Iran’s strategy to leverage non-state actors like Hezbollah and Hamas in its proxy warfare. While Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, clarified their stance in a much-anticipated speech a month into the conflict, the impact of this abstention is profound. Israel, grappling with internal divisions and security vulnerabilities heightened by Hamas’s attacks, finds itself in a precarious position not seen in decades.
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- Tuesday, 5 December 2023, 13:02
The main directions of the state policy of Uzbekistan in the context of improving the country's position in international rankings and indices[Over] Tokhir Khasanov, Academy of Public Administration under the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan, DSc. in Economics, Associate Professor
Uzbekistan, nestled in the heart of Central Asia, has historically been a melting pot of cultures and civilizations, thanks to its pivotal role in the Silk Road. Its rich tapestry of history reflects a blend of empires, nomads, and diverse cultures that have left their mark over millennia.
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- Tuesday, 28 November 2023, 07:45
Putin and the 2022 Russian Military Conflict in Post-Soviet Lands[Over] By Alan WHITEHORN, Professor Emeritus in Political Science, The Royal Military College of Canada
Coming to power after the break-up of the Soviet Union in the 1990s, Lukashenko had ruled Belarus in a highly autocratic fashion for almost three decades, while seeking to navigate his country within Moscow’s sphere of influence. However, the aging leader’s arbitrary rule began to teeter and he faced a major challenge in the election of 2020. When skewed and rigged election results were announced, hundreds of thousands of voters of Belarus peacefully protested their strong objections.
The West echoed moral support to the mass of citizens voicing democratic demands on the streets, but provided little material assistance. Somewhat optimistically and naively, the West trusted that the unarmed people would peacefully prevail over the coercive might of the internal and external dictators in Minsk and Moscow. Putin, by contrast, sensing a vulnerable and weakened regime, provided his fellow authoritarian colleague with external assistance to forcefully crush the peaceful demonstrators. READ MORE
- Thursday, 17 March 2022, 07:54
Why Are Gas Prices So High? [Over] by Dr Jack Sharples (Oxford Institute for Energy Studies and EGF Associate Researcher)
Mike Fulwood (Oxford Institute for Energy Studies)
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We analyse the drivers behind ongoing price rally and offer an outlook for the coming winter. On the global LNG market, unexpected outages meant that growth in supply simply did not keep pace with the increase in demand. Given its role as the ‘balancing market’, European LNG imports declined. This combined with declines in European production and pipeline imports to open a supply gap that could only be met by withdrawals from storage. We conclude that with gas markets noticeably tighter, the ongoing price rally is driven by fundamentals, with an added ‘fear premium’ that the forthcoming winter could be as cold as that in 2020/21. If that proves to be the case, the current price levels will persist, and even rise, while a milder winter could see the market turn slightly more bearish. READ MORE.
- Wednesday, 15 December 2021, 09:22
Nuclear Energy for Uzbekistan: Achieving Decarbonization Targets and Resolving Energy Shortages [Over] Embassy of the Republic of Uzbekistan in the Kingdom of Belgium
On 29 January 2021 the Brussels-based media outlet EU Today and the Brussels Press Club in Brussels hosted a conference dedicated to the construction of nuclear power plants in Belarus, Turkey and Uzbekistan. Despite the fact that plans for the construction of new power units are being considered at various stages both in the EU member states-Finland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Bulgaria, and in the UK, Pakistan, the United Arab Emirates, etc., the discussion was focused on these countries. Much attention at the conference was paid to the construction of nuclear power plants in Uzbekistan.
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- Wednesday, 7 April 2021, 22:28
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