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EGF
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Saturday 28 May 2022

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Publication
A Transitional Arrangement for Karabakh May Be Necessary

Benyamin Poghosyan By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

The issue of the status of Nagorno Karabakh cannot be avoided in future discussions on an Armenia-Azerbaijan bilateral peace treaty. One solution is to agree to some transitional arrangement.
The April 6 Brussels meeting between Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev gave the Armenia – Azerbaijan negotiations new momentum. The sides agreed to establish a border delimitation and demarcation commission and take steps to launch negotiations over the signature of a bilateral peace treaty. These issues were also agreed upon in principle back in November 2021, when two leaders had a meeting in Sochi facilitated by Russian President Vladimir Putin. READ MORE

  • EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 20.05.2022  |  Security
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Lack of Results in Armenia-Azerbaijan Talks Can Quickly Lead to Renewed Violence

Fuad Shahbazov By Fuad SHAHBAZOV, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

On May 12, the Foreign Ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia held another meeting in Dushanbe, Tajikistan, on the side-lines of the Russia-led Commonwealth of Independent States Ministerial summit, and with the participation of the Russian foreign minister. Although Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan characterized the meeting as another “productive interaction” between the warring parties, little progress has been made in the peace negotiations between Baku and Yerevan since the 6 April meeting of the leaders of the two countries in Brussels. READ MORE

  • EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 20.05.2022  |  Security
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Turkey’s Endgame in the Normalization Process with Armenia

Benyamin Poghosyan By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

Armenia–Turkey normalization process was officially launched on January 14, 2022 when special representatives – the Deputy Speaker of the Armenian Parliament Ruben Rubinyan and Ambassador Serdar Kılıç – met in Moscow. The groundwork for this meeting began in mid-2021, when the Armenian government proposed the idea of peace in the South Caucasus and normalizing relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey. Armenia’s catastrophic defeat in the 2020 Karabakh war seemed to put aside one of the main obstacles to launching the Armenia–Turkey normalization process. The 2008-2009 “football diplomacy” failed mainly due to Turkey’s precondition to Armenia to return “occupied lands” to Azerbaijan. By signing the November 10, 2020 statement, the Armenian government accepted the loss of seven regions outside the former Nagorno Karabakh Autonomous Region (NKAR), as well as 30-percent of territories of NKAR itself. READ MORE

  • EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 12.05.2022  |  External Relations
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How Will the Ukraine Crisis Shape the World Energy Market?

Fuad Shahbazov By Fuad SHAHBAZOV, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

Russian military aggression against Ukraine launched almost two months ago has clearly signalled a change in the traditional world order and triggered the unprecedented reaction of the Western coalition led by the U.S. The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has left the global energy market uncertain, threatening to cause severe energy shortages and oil prices exceeding $110 per barrel.
Since the Russian intervention in Ukraine kicked off, numerous sanctions packages have been imposed on Russia, hitting mostly financial institutes and state-owned companies. This resulted in Western countries’ consolidation, and the collective refusal of Russia-related transactions and import of Russian natural gas, oil, and coal. READ MORE

  • EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 12.05.2022  |  Energy
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A Path to a Peace Agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan

Benyamin Poghosyan By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

While the world continues to follow the war in Ukraine and the growing tensions in relations between Russia and the West, Armenia and Azerbaijan are ready to launch negotiations to sign a peace treaty. All external powers involved in the region’s geopolitics – Russia, the US, the EU, Turkey, and Iran – support this process. Armenia and Azerbaijan will soon launch three separate, though interconnected, processes: the start of the work of the bilateral border delimitation and demarcation commission, the restoration of communications infrastructure, and the launch of negotiations on a peace treaty. These issues are discussed on two parallel platforms – Armenia-Azerbaijan-EU and Armenia-Azerbaijan-Russia. Both Russia and the EU support the start of work on all three tracks. READ MORE

  • EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 05.05.2022
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Armenia Faces a Critical Choice in Nagorno-Karabakh

Benyamin Poghosyan By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

April 2022 was marked by significant developments around the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. When Russia launched a “special military operation” in Ukraine on February 24, it seemed that all other post-Soviet conflicts would enter “silent mode,” as no one would care about Nagorno-Karabakh, Abkhazia, South Ossetia or Transnistria. However, this was not the case, at least for Nagorno-Karabakh. On April 6, 2022, the European Union organized an Armenia–Azerbaijan summit in Brussels. President Aliyev and Prime Minister Pashinyan agreed to form a border demarcation/delimitation commission until the end of April and take concrete steps to start peace talks. The issue of border delimitation and demarcation also was among key priorities during the November 2021 Sochi meeting facilitated by Russian President Putin. However, despite the signature of the trilateral statement, no tangible moves have been made. READ MORE

  • EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 28.04.2022  |  External Relations
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Black Sea Security in Times of War

Russia-China-Afghanistan By Eugene KOGAN, Tbilisi-based defence and security expert

There is no doubt that the ongoing Russian military action against Ukraine profoundly affects the rest of the Black Sea littoral states: Bulgaria, Georgia, Romania and Turkey. The tense standoff of recent weeks placed each of them in a difficult position between apprehension and, particularly with Turkey, a kind of peacemaker or rather mediator, which Russia now ignores completely.
Romanian Defence Minister, Vasile Dincu, said in January 2022 that “Russia, at the moment, is not a direct threat to Romania, but it is [rather] a threat to security in the [Black Sea] area”. The author disagrees with the minister’s statement since the Russian military, which is stationed on the occupied Crimean peninsula - not much more than 100 km from the Danube Delta – is a direct threat to Romania, even though Russian officials will blame the other side for posing a threat to Russia. Furthermore, the region’s three NATO member countries, namely Bulgaria, Romania and Turkey, have until today been unable to create and implement a comprehensive Black Sea security strategy together with NATO aspirants Georgia and Ukraine to counter the challenges posed by Russia. The latter, however, successfully implemented its divide and rule policy in the region. READ MORE.

  • EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 21.04.2022  |  Security
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Quo Vadis Nagorno-Karabakh

Benyamin Poghosyan By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

The discussions about possible Armenia – Azerbaijan peace treaty surfaced again during the last Pashinyan – Aliyev meeting held in Brussels on April 6, 2022. At their meeting which was hosted by the European council president, Charles Michel, the two leaders agreed to instruct their foreign ministers to prepare for the start of the negotiations. On April 11, the Armenian and Azerbaijani foreign ministers held a phone talk and discussed the details of the upcoming process. The EU was not the only external actor pushing forward for the peace deal. Before and after the April 6 meeting in Brussels, Aliyev and Pashinyan spoke separately with Russian President Putin, who emphasized the significance of peace and reiterated Russia's willingness to support Armenia and Azerbaijan. The US Secretary of State Blinken also confirmed the US readiness to facilitate the comprehensive settlement between Armenia and Azerbaijan. READ MORE

  • EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 21.04.2022  |  External Relations
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The South Caucasus from War to Peace: 30 Measures between Now and 2030

Joint Armenian-Azerbaijani Liaison Group Joint Armenian-Azerbaijani Liaison Group on confidence-building measures

The Joint Armenian-Azerbaijani Liaison Group on confidence-building measures in support of lasting peace in the South Caucasus has published its report in which it proposes 30 short, medium and long term measures in support of ongoing efforts to establish peace in the region. On Wednesday, 6 April, members of the Working Group, presented their report to the EU Special Representative for the South Caucasus, Toivo Klaar, and other EU officials at a special briefing in Brussels. In their report, published on the eve of the meeting between the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan and the president of the European Union in Brussels on 6 April, the group says that "all the ingredients for peace exist in the South Caucasus. All the ingredients for war exist too. What is in front of us is a choice". The group says that the proposed measures are a building block in the quest for peace but if the ideas being proposed are implemented the objective of building a peaceful, secure and prosperous South Caucasus will be much closer to being achieved. It was now necessary that all concerned should put effort into turning the thirty measures being proposed in the report into tangible action.
The work of the Joint Liaison Group was co-ordinated and facilitated by LINKS Europe - an independent foundation based in The Hague, The Netherlands - in the framework of the European Union's EU4Peace initiative. READ MORE

  • EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 13.04.2022  |  External Relations
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New Meeting between Pashinyan and Aliyev in Brussels: What next

Benyamin Poghosyan By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

On April 6, 2022, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev held a meeting in Brussels mediated by the President of the European Council, Charles Michel. It was the second meeting in Brussels mediated by the European Union. The first took place in December 2021; on February 4, 2022, Armenian and Azerbaijan leaders held an online meeting with the participation of Michel and French President Emmanuel Macron. A week before the April 6 meeting, the EU hosted a meeting of high-level officials from Armenia and Azerbaijan in Brussels to advance joint efforts to find solutions to issues between both countries. The meeting between Secretary of the Security Council of Armenia Armen Grigoryan and assistant to the President of Azerbaijan Hikmet Hajiyev was facilitated by the EU Special Representative for the South Caucasus Toivo Klaar. As a result of the April 6 meeting, Pashinyan and Aliyev agreed to instruct their Ministers of Foreign Affairs to work on the preparation of a future peace treaty, which would address all necessary issues. READ MORE

  • EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 13.04.2022  |  External Relations
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EGF Affiliated Expert Benyamin POGHOSYAN has recently launched a new English language weekly program Viewpoint, where he will discuss the developments in and around Armenia. READ MORE

EGF Affiliated Expert Professor Emeritus Alan Whitehorn has recently contributed a new op-ed on “War Crimes and Genocide in Ukraine” to 168.am news & analysis. He concluded that: “A third option is to stand up and try to stop the victimization. Somehow, we must resist the ‘sin of indifference’. The perpetrators need to be stopped by joint collective action. It is our shared global obligation to urgently protect the victims. READ MORE

 

On March 24-27, 2022, George Vlad Niculescu, Head of Research of the EGF, co-chaired the 23rd workshop of the Regional Stability in the South Caucasus Study Group of the PfP Consortium of Defence Academies and Security Studies Institutes on “Peace Building through Economic and Infrastructure Integration in the South Caucasus”, held in Naples (Italy). Please click here for the programme and agenda outline, and here for his speaking points.

On June 10th, 2021, Dr George Vlad Niculescu, EGF Head of Research, participated in the commemorative event: “Uzbekistan and its International Partners: Thirty Years of Independent Statehood, Energy Cooperation, and Openness towards Reform and Investment” organized by the Uzbek Embassy to the Kingdom of Belgium and the E.U. and by the Brussels Energy Club. On that occasion, he delivered a speech highlighting Uzbekistan’s relevance for the European Union strategy in Central Asia and a couple of challenges ahead for Uzbekistan and its Central Asian neighbours. Click here to read his speech.

  • The Daily BriefMay 23, 2022
  • Stratfor 2018 Second-Quarter ForecastMarch 11, 2018
  • Stratfor 2018 Annual ForecastDecember 26, 2017
More
EGF Featured Publication, from Affiliated Expert Anna Ohanyan
Armenia’s Velvet Revolution: Authoritarian Decline and Civil Resistance in a Multipolar World

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