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EGF
The European Geopolitical Forum

Thursday 16 October 2025

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Context on Energy
News France detains Russian ‘shadow’ tanker to disrupt war in Ukraine

Moscow has called France’s detention of the ship, and arrest of the captain, an act of piracy.

  • October 3, 2025
News How much of Europe’s oil and gas still comes from Russia?

In 2021, Russia supplied the EU with 45 percent of its gas and 27 percent of its oil. By 2024, these values dropped to 19 percent and 3 percent, respectively.

  • October 3, 2025
News Ukraine strikes choke off Russian oil exports and fuel supplies

Evidence mounts that Ukraine's two-pronged approach is working. Russian regions are short of fuel and export revenues are suffering.

  • September 19, 2025
Publications Advancing Azerbaijan-China Energy Cooperation within the SCO Framework

Vusal GULIYEV By Vusal GULIYEV, Leading Advisor at the Baku-based Center of Analysis of International Relations (AIR Center)

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev delivered a speech at the “Shanghai Cooperation Organization Plus” (SCO+) meeting in Tianjin, China (September 2025) underlining Azerbaijan’s role in regional connectivity and energy cooperation. Energy is a cornerstone of Azerbaijan’s economy and a major area of cooperation with both China and other SCO countries. As a hydrocarbon-rich nation on the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan brings significant oil and gas assets to any partnership. It has leveraged its dialogue partner status in the SCO to advance energy collaboration aiming to diversify its export markets, attract investment in energy infrastructure, and even develop new energy technologies. Building on this foundation, Azerbaijan has gradually shifted its energy focus from its traditional European partners toward emerging Asian markets. Traditionally, Azerbaijan’s oil and gas have flowed Westward to Europe (through pipelines like BTC and TANAP), but now Asian markets are increasingly in focus. China has begun importing Azerbaijani crude oil in recent years. Although volumes are modest relative to Azerbaijan’s exports to Europe, they signal a growing Far Eastern demand. READ MORE

  • September 12, 2025
News What’s next for oil as OPEC+ and Trump shake the market?

OPEC+ is opening the oil taps again, while Donald Trump’s tariffs target Russian crude buyers.Read more

  • August 14, 2025
News EU hits Russian oil, shadow fleet with new sanctions over Ukraine war

European Union says move amounts to one of the strongest sanctions packages against Russia to date linked to the war.

  • July 18, 2025
Publications India-EU Relations: Charting New Vistas for Climate Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific

Shanthie Mariet D’SOUZA By Shanthie Mariet D’SOUZA, PhD, founder & president, Mantraya Institute for Strategic Studies (MISS)

A stronger EU-India partnership on technology transfer, climate finance, green transition, and sustainability can help bridge the North-South divide.
Among the host of commitments that found their way into the Leaders’ Statement during the visit of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to India in February 2025 was the need for greater cooperation across a number of areas pertaining to climate change. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and von der Leyen also reaffirmed their commitment to promote “a free, open, peaceful and prosperous Indo-Pacific,” in the wake of the European Union joining the Indo-Pacific Oceans Initiative (IPOI) in 2023. Within the IPOI, an Indian initiative, climate change has been a significant area of focus. While the EU and India are working to address the challenges in their bilateral relations, including finalizing a much-delayed free trade agreement, climate cooperation in the Indo-Pacific can become a defining strategic initiative between the two. The prevailing heat waves in Europe and Indian cities, and its implications for livelihoods, economies, and conflict, make such cooperation even more necessary. READ MORE

  • July 9, 2025
Publications Türkiye-Turkmenistan Gas Deal Opens Possibilities for New Routes

Fuad Shahbazov By Fuad Shahbazov, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

On February 14, Türkiye’s Energy Minister, Alparaslan Bayraktar, announced that a new energy agreement was signed with Turkmenistan, strengthening the bilateral relations between Ankara and Ashgabat. The main stakeholders of the agreement are Türkiye’s state-owned pipeline operator BOTAŞ and Turkmenistan’s state-owned Turkmengaz. The new agreement envisages 2 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas flow from Turkmenistan to Türkiye through Iran via its existing natural gas network, which began on March 1. The new swap agreement is a remarkable milestone in enhancing Türkiye’s energy security and attempts to diversify its supply sources. READ MORE

  • March 22, 2025
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