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The European Geopolitical Forum

Friday 30 May 2025

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Context
Publications An Impressive EU Aid Package to Armenia Does not Solve Yerevan’s Dilemma on Karabakh

Benyamin Poghosyan By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

The EU has thrown Armenia an economic lifeline, but Yerevan has a stark choice ahead: either to use its economic resources to modernise its military and ensure that the Armenian population left in Karabakh is protected, or to create conditions for the Armenians in Karabakh to gradually settle in Armenia.
The EU has always perceived the South Caucasus as a neighbouring area between Europe, the Middle East, and Central Asia. The South Caucasus was never part of the EU's vital interests, but the Europeans were not indifferent to the region's fate. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the EU signed Partnership and Cooperation Agreements with South Caucasus Republics, and later included the region into the European Neighbourhood policy. The next phase in EU-South Caucasus relations was the launch of the Eastern Partnership initiative and the inclusion of Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia into the program. READ MORE

  • July 27, 2021
Publications To Open Transport Links in the South Caucasus, Azerbaijan Needs to Avoid the term “Zangezur Corridor”

Benyamin Poghosyan By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

Armenia always supported the idea of restoring communications and developing economic relations with Azerbaijan as a tangible way of confidence building. However Azerbaijan has to give up its inflammatory and disruptive rhetoric about the "Zangezur Corridor", and its thinly veiled threats to take over the Syunik province from Armenia.
The 10 November 2020 tripartite statement signed by Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia ended the war in Nagorno Karabakh, but evidently, did not bring peace to the region. A range of complex issues remain to be settled – the future of Nagorno Karabakh, relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and the security dynamics of the broader region. Given the Russian military presence in Karabakh, the region's future now mostly depends on the Kremlin, and neither Armenia nor Azerbaijan has much room for manoeuvre here. The status of Karabakh will remain a topic in bilateral Russia–Azerbaijan and Russia–Armenia discussions, but Moscow will do whatever it thinks it is necessary to do. READ MORE

  • July 19, 2021
Publications Armenian Foreign Policy in the Context of the Transformation of Global Order

Lilit Galstyan By Lilit Galstyan, Senior Research Fellow, Academy of Political Studies, Yerevan

The end of the Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Union have ushered in hopes of humanity's happy and harmonious future. The ideas such as "End of history" became very popular both within academic circles and with policymakers. There was a widespread belief that the entire planet would live under liberal democracy, and inter-state conflicts will become bad memories from history. However, the beginning of the XXI century crushed these hopes. Russia - West relations started to deteriorate after the 2004 Orange Revolution in Ukraine, while the 2014 Crimean crisis brought bilateral relations to the lowest point since the end of the Cold War. Meanwhile, the astonishing Chinese economic growth and the emergence of the multi-million middle class did not bring about political changes in China. READ MORE

  • July 19, 2021
Publications Assessing the Current Situation in the South Caucasus

Alan Whitehorn By Alan Whitehorn, Professor Emeritus in Political Science, The Royal Military College of Canada

Despite signing the November 9, 2020 ceasefire, Azerbaijan and Armenia have not been able to agree on an actual firm ceasefire. There are too many border incursions and military incidents, despite the existence of decades-old soviet boundaries between republics that were firmly regulated in the former Soviet Union. Peacekeepers are too few and not located in enough areas to address all of the border incidents. READ MORE

  • July 7, 2021
Publications Military Aerospace Expertise and Exports from Israel

Eugene Kogan By Eugene Kogan, Tbilisi-based defence and security expert

Local domestic military aerospace expertise has been honed over a period of almost 60 years. Israel’s procurement of US-built fighter aircraft and Israeli technicians and aeronautical engineers developing subsystems and avionics for the jets has enhanced their skills and expertise.
Rafael Advanced Defence Systems’ cooperation with Raytheon has taken military aerospace expertise to the next level. The triple combination of buying from the United States, developing subsystems locally, and teaming up with the US has contributed to successful arms exports from Israel. The Ministry of Defence International Defence Cooperation Authority (known as SIBAT) realised in November 2019 that the international arms market was undergoing serious changes and certain adjustments would be needed in order to remain competitive and increase the market share of Israeli defence companies. READ MORE.

  • July 7, 2021
Publications Containing China Is No Longer Possible Despite the Fact that Many Want To

Benyamin Poghosyan By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

China was on everyone's lips at numerous summits and international gatherings in the last days and weeks. "China will be among the key world players throughout the 21st century; it will be the number one economic power, and all have to accept and adapt to this reality. Many are not happy with this prospect and would like to prevent it from becoming a reality, but no one has the necessary capacity to contain China, despite the fact that many want to, for the moment for doing that has passed."
While many states make efforts to eventually overcome the outcomes of the COVID 19 pandemic through a large-scale vaccination process, and seek to return to the pre-2020 life, geopolitics, somehow pushed to the corner by the disease, returns to the spotlight. Recent weeks saw a chain of global summits – G7, NATO, and the USA-Russia meeting. The world leaders discussed many topics – climate change, the restoration of the transatlantic alliance, relations with Russia. However, the most repeated word in all these gatherings was China. “Rise of China”, “China's challenge”, “assertive China”, “China-led world order”, “China hegemony in Asia” – this is perhaps not the complete list of China-related phrases. READ MORE

  • July 7, 2021
News Putin says Russia could have sunk UK warship without starting World War Three

President Vladimir Putin said on Wednesday that Russia could have sunk a British warship that it accused of illegally entering its territorial waters without starting World War Three and accused Washington of a role in the "provocation".

  • June 30, 2021
News Criticism of Palestinian security forces raises pressure on Abbas

Pressure is mounting on Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas over his security forces' handling of protesters demanding his resignation since one of his biggest critics died in custody.

  • June 30, 2021
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