Publications
Germany’s Perceptions of Turkey’s Policy in the South Caucasus
By Daria ISACHENKO, PhD, Associate Researcher, SWP Berlin/ CATS
Franziska SMOLNIK, PhD, Senior Fellow, SWP Berlin
Turkey is a NATO ally, an EU membership candidate, and a confident geopolitical actor. The latter aspect is uppermost in Berlin’s assessment of Ankara’s policy in the South Caucasus, where Turkey’s growing influence is recognised. If they are to make the most of the potential for cooperation, Ankara, and Berlin each need to acknowledge the other’s foreign policy framework and find ways to reconcile Turkey’s autonomous line with Germany’s EU-oriented and often normative approach.
The current state of Turkish foreign policy towards the South Caucasus rather resembles the situation in the Balkans, where “Ankara pursues a parallel, as opposed to an adversarial, strategy to that of the West”. Given that the South Caucasus does not involve sensitive issues such as those that characterise Ankara’s and Berlin’s bilateral relations, nor flashpoints in the Middle East and the Eastern Mediterranean where their positions clearly diverge, it should theoretically be possible for Ankara and Berlin to start exploring areas of cooperation. If that is to happen, a middle ground will need to be found between Turkey’s autonomous action and Germany’s EU-embedded approach. Moreover, Berlin – and Brussels – will have to determine more clearly how to reconcile normative and geopolitical interests.
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Publications
Organization of Turkic States Advances Eurasian Trade Connectivity 
By Vusal GULIYEV, Policy Advisor at the Center of Analysis of International Relations and Head of Shanghai Office at AZEGLOB Consulting Group
Amid shifting geopolitical dynamics and increasing global trade demands, the Organization of Turkic States (OTS), comprising Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Türkiye, Uzbekistan, and observer states, has undertaken a transformative Middle Corridor Initiative (MCI) to enhance the route within the global trade landscape. This 6,500-kilometer-long (approximately 4,000 miles) transport and trade route traversing Central Asia, the Caspian Sea, the South Caucasus, and Türkiye has gained renewed prominence as member states focus on developing secure, efficient, and competitive transport corridors to mitigate the challenges posed by sanctions and instability along traditional transit channels. The OTS has already devoted extensive efforts into systematically developing sophisticated logistics and transport facilities through various multilateral treaties signed within the context of MCI. READ MORE
Publications
Ukraine Eyes Key Role in Azerbaijani Gas Transit to Europe
By Fuad Shahbazov, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst
Ukraine is positioning itself as a key transit hub for Azerbaijani gas to Europe, a move that could significantly alter the region’s energy landscape. If successful, this would carve out a new role for Kyiv after Russian supplies stopped flowing to the rest of Europe via Ukraine on January 1, pushing up European wholesale energy prices. The expiration of the Russian gas deal at the beginning of 2025 and Kyiv's decision not to prolong the agreement triggered heated debates within the European Union as countries like Hungary and Slovakia harshly criticised Ukraine, accusing it of igniting the energy crisis with no drastic impact on Russia. READ MORE
Publications
The Eurasian Economic Union: A View from Armenia
By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, ISPI Senior Associate Research Fellow
Armenia signed an agreement to join the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) in May 2014 after halting the process of signing an Association Agreement with the European Union. Many observers noted that Armenia’s then-President Serzh Sargsyan reversed his foreign policy following a meeting with Russia’s president in September 2013 in a U-turn. This decision paved the way for Armenia’s EAEU membership and halted the negotiation of an agreement that would have included, inter alia, a free-trade agreement with the EU. The reversal was likely made under Russian pressure and was influenced by geopolitical and geo-economic considerations. Armenia, supporting the self-proclaimed Nagorno-Karabakh Republic in its conflict with Azerbaijan, saw its alliance with Russia as a crucial deterrent against hostile neighbours, including Azerbaijan, which had significantly increased its military spending.
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