Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics
16 Sep. – 15 Nov. 2014
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst

Key Points:

• The Syrian border town of Kobane becomes a symbolic battleground between the Islamic State (ISIS) and the American-backed Kurdish fighters of the YPG. Turkey sits out the fight, deeming both sides to be terrorists.
• Ankara, while insisting on increased American involvement in the form of regime change in Damascus, allows Kurdish Peshmerga from Iraq to cross into the besieged town.
• The ruling AKP’s attempts to curb free speech on the Internet draw the ire of domestic and international observers.
• Fitch remains reassured of Turkey’s stability for the time being, but a host of issues stemming from the country’s unstable neighbourhood threaten to undermine medium-term growth prospects.
• Turkey remains vulnerable to gas cuts due to the Ukraine-Russia conflict. However, Turkey’s work on diversifying energy imports continues. The Kurdish Regional Government of Iraq is set to increase oil exports to the Turkish port of Ceyhan before the New Year, while improved relations with Greece may give Turkey another foot in the European energy market.
• Despite setbacks in early October, the PKK peace process remains intact. The government must take another step in giving Turkey’s Kurds a reason to stay at the table, though the final decision on whether the peace holds may be left to imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan.
• TANAP moves forward, but the inclusion of Turkmen gas may likely require the completion of a Trans-Caspian pipeline.
• Turkish-owned Genel signs an agreement to begin preparations for the production of two Kurdish Regional Government gas fields in Iraqi Kurdistan. The news comes as Baghdad and Erbil finally agree to revenue and budget sharing, after months of strife.
• President Erdogan offers bold pronouncements on the history of the Americas and Western duplicity in Syria at a conference of Latin American Islamic scholars.

• November 13, 2014

European Union foreign ministers are unlikely to step up sanctions against Russia next week over its involvement in destabilizing eastern Ukraine, EU diplomats said on Wednesday.

• November 12, 2014

A deal between China and the United States to combat global warming is "heartening" although it falls short of the action needed to avert the worst impacts, the head of the U.N. panel of climate scientists said on Wednesday.

• November 12, 2014

NATO is concerned about convoys of trucks taking artillery and supplies into east Ukraine from Russia, and wants to see international borders respected, the supreme allied commander said on Tuesday.

• November 11, 2014

A few brief encounters between Barack Obama and Vladimir Putin during an Asia-Pacific summit in China on Tuesday spoke volumes about the chilly state of relations between the United States and Russia.

• November 11, 2014

China has proposed setting up a forum to restart stalled peace talks between Afghanistan and Taliban insurgents, the latest sign Beijing wants more of a say in its troubled neighbor's affairs as it frets about its own Islamist militant threat.

• November 11, 2014

U.S. President Barack Obama and Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke briefly on the sidelines of APEC summit events on Monday night but did not delve into the issues that divide their two countries, according to U.S. and Russian officials.

• November 10, 2014

European Central Bank Executive Board member Benoit Coeure on Friday raised doubts about whether a weaker euro would be the way to ignite growth in the euro zone.

• November 10, 2014