By Tabib HUSEYNOV, independent policy analyst and researcher
Azerbaijan-Russia relations have experienced a series of compounding crises since early 2025, raising questions about the future of Russian influence in the South Caucasus. This paper examines the underlying causes and strategic consequences of this shift in bilateral relationship, highlighting the decline of Russia’s regional influence, alongside Azerbaijan’s emergence as a more autonomous and confident regional power. The paper argues that Azerbaijan’s evolving strategic posture, underpinned by its alliance with Türkiye, its central role in transregional connectivity projects, and its relative economic resilience, has empowered Baku to engage Moscow in a more assertive and transactional relationship. At the same time, areas of interdependence remain, particularly in trade, transport infrastructure, and close humanitarian-cultural contacts, posing both risks and opportunities. The paper concludes that the future of Azerbaijan-Russia relations will hinge on Moscow’s ability to internalize the new power realities in the South Caucasus.
READ MORE
By Aytaс MAHAMMADOVA, Energy Security Expert affiliated with the Caspian-Alpine Society
The year 2020 marked a watershed moment in the modern history of the South Caucasus, a turning point that fundamentally altered the region's geopolitical landscape. Azerbaijan, after 30 years of patient diplomacy punctuated by military confrontations, took decisive initiative and made history. The 44-day war that autumn demonstrated not only Azerbaijan's military capabilities but also its strategic determination to resolve the protracted Karabakh conflict through force when diplomatic channels proved exhausted. This bold move transformed Azerbaijan from a passive player awaiting international mediation into an active architect of its own destiny and, by extension, the region's future. Azerbaijan’s post-Karabakh victory and subsequent strategic initiatives have positioned it firmly on the path to middle-power status. By leveraging its geographic location at the crossroads of Europe and Asia, its energy resources, and its growing diplomatic influence, Azerbaijan has demonstrated the ability to shape regional agendas beyond its immediate borders. READ MORE
In an exclusive interview with Bloomberg Adria, Dr Marat Terterov, Founder and Director of the Brussels Energy Club, and Co-founder of the European Geopolitical Forum, assessed the prospects of energy transition in Europe within a complex geopolitical context. In particular, he addressed the main challenges ahead such as: decarbonization of transports, the need for an urgent diversification of energy (in particular gas) supply sources and adjusting the energy markets to geopolitical imperatives (mainly due to EU sanctions against Russia). Regarding the latter, Dr. Terterov alluded to an older issue: “can states control markets?”. While market actors (including suppliers and consumers) do not aim to support the Russian war in Ukraine, they don’t want to become collateral damage either. Gas trading relations are usually very long term. It’s therefore still to be seen how the European gas markets actors would react to Brussels pressures to phase out Russian gas supply over the short term. Meanwhile, Russia has no interest in undermining the European energy transition, but it may be interested to maintain a share of the European gas market, at least by the time it was able to fully redirect its exports towards the East (China, Pakistan).
WATCH INTERVIEW
By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Senior Research Fellow at the APRI Armenia
Will the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) set to connect Azerbaijan with Nakhichevan and Türkiye via Armenia help establish lasting peace and prosperity for all? Interestingly, if the Washington Declaration speaks about restoration of all communications, with reciprocal benefits for Armenia, the spotlight has been about the TRIPP and only about it. This oversight misses a vital point necessary for lasting peace and stability in the region. The launch of TRIPP alone will not establish real regional connectivity in the South Caucasus, or create the economic interdependence between Armenia, Azerbaijan and Türkiye needed to cement lasting regional peace and stability. Instead, focusing on the TRIPP will maintain Armenia’s isolation, restrict its geopolitical and geoeconomic flexibilities, while keeping the door open for future escalations over the longer term. READ MORE
By Elkhan NURIYEV, PhD, Senior Fellow at the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation
As Central Asia reshapes Eurasian trade routes, with China and Turkey consolidating influence, Europe faces a strategic test: adapt quickly to stay relevant or risk being sidelined in one of the 21st century’s most consequential connectivity shifts. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Central Asia has emerged as a critical hub in a reshaped Eurasian trade network. Countries from Kazakhstan to Azerbaijan are diversifying transit routes to reduce dependence on Russia, giving new prominence to the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR) – better known as the Middle Corridor. This corridor links China to Europe via Central Asia and the South Caucasus, bypassing traditional northern routes through Russia. READ MORE
By Tabib HUSEYNOV, independent policy analyst and researcher
By Aytaс MAHAMMADOVA, Energy Security Expert affiliated with the Caspian-Alpine Society
By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Senior Research Fellow at the APRI Armenia 
By Elkhan NURIYEV, PhD, Senior Fellow at the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation