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Monday 2 February 2026

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Context on Security
News Russia-Ukraine war: List of key events, day 1,439

These are the key developments from day 1,439 of Russia’s war on Ukraine.

  • February 2, 2026
News Iran eyes progress towards US nuclear talks as tension eases

Iran examines regional proposals to ease tensions with the US as it expects a framework for talks in the coming days.

  • February 2, 2026
News North Korea’s Kim to outline plans to boost nuclear arsenal

Pyongyang expected to release five-year development plan for defence and economy at upcoming congress.

  • January 28, 2026
News Top Turkish diplomat says Iran ready to negotiate, warns against US attack

‘It’s wrong to start the war again,’ the top Turkish diplomat tells Al Jazeera amid escalating US-Iran tensions.

  • January 28, 2026
News Russia-Ukraine war: List of key events, day 1,434

These are the key developments from day 1,434 of Russia’s war on Ukraine.

  • January 28, 2026
News Trump’s Greenland pact will demand allies boost Arctic security: NATO chief

Mark Rutte’s comments to Reuters come as European allies scramble to respond to Donald Trump’s about-face on US tariffs, Greenland threats.

  • January 22, 2026
News Trump’s Greenland tariffs: What’s Europe’s ‘bazooka’ option to hit back?

After tariff threats against Europe, Trump renews bid for Greenland in message to Norway as EU mulls retaliation.

  • January 20, 2026
Publications The Case for a Self-Regulating Ceasefire in Ukraine

Tabib HUSEYNOV By Tabib HUSEYNOV, independent policy analyst and researcher

Diplomatic initiatives to end the war in Ukraine are fundamentally misguided, because they seek a political solution that remains unattainable under current circumstances. International efforts should instead focus on securing a stable ceasefire that locks in the existing contact line without conditioning its achievement on impractical and damaging political concessions on Ukraine’s sovereignty or the fate of its occupied territories. The durability of such a ceasefire should rest primarily on Ukraine’s own strength, not on international peacekeepers or Russia’s goodwill.
Ukraine and Russia are locked in a grinding stalemate. Neither can achieve a decisive military victory any time soon, and neither can accept the political terms the other demands. Russian forces make incremental advances, but at the expense of staggering losses. Latest data on Russian casualties from the Ukrainian General Staff and the Ukrainian open-source mapping project Deep State suggest that between January and December 2025, Russia lost roughly 96 troops per square kilometre taken. With roughly 5,000 square km of Donetsk Oblast still under Ukrainian control, Russia would need to sacrifice close to half a million servicemen to occupy the remainder. READ MORE

  • January 13, 2026
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