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The European Geopolitical Forum

Saturday 13 December 2025

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Context on Energy
Publications India at COP30: A Mismatch Between Grandstanding and Climate Action

Shanthie Mariet D’SOUZA By Shanthie Mariet D’SOUZA, PhD, founder & president, Mantraya Institute for Strategic Studies (MISS)

India’s climate policy must demonstrate real achievements vis-à-vis fossil fuels while highlighting modest gains in the realm of green energy.
After attending COP30, the United Nations climate summit at the Brazilian city of Belem, India’s Environment Minister Bhupender Yadav declared on November 30 that the summit was “a significant milestone in advancing equity and climate justice.” He added that India had “achieved all its major goals at the global negotiations and its positions are reflected in all major decisions.” Despite this self-congratulatory message and India’s attempt to anoint itself as the leader of the developing world, New Delhi’s track record remains contradictory. Some impressive achievements sit alongside major loopholes in India’s climate policy and practice. As the Global South struggles to convince the developed world to play its part in climate financing, India has to do more to chart out a clear roadmap for reducing carbon footprints. READ MORE

  • December 12, 2025
Publications Assessing the European Energy Transition against Evolving Geopolitical Challenges




In an exclusive interview with Bloomberg Adria, Dr Marat Terterov, Founder and Director of the Brussels Energy Club, and Co-founder of the European Geopolitical Forum, assessed the prospects of energy transition in Europe within a complex geopolitical context. In particular, he addressed the main challenges ahead such as: decarbonization of transports, the need for an urgent diversification of energy (in particular gas) supply sources and adjusting the energy markets to geopolitical imperatives (mainly due to EU sanctions against Russia). Regarding the latter, Dr. Terterov alluded to an older issue: “can states control markets?”. While market actors (including suppliers and consumers) do not aim to support the Russian war in Ukraine, they don’t want to become collateral damage either. Gas trading relations are usually very long term. It’s therefore still to be seen how the European gas markets actors would react to Brussels pressures to phase out Russian gas supply over the short term. Meanwhile, Russia has no interest in undermining the European energy transition, but it may be interested to maintain a share of the European gas market, at least by the time it was able to fully redirect its exports towards the East (China, Pakistan). WATCH INTERVIEW

  • October 22, 2025
News France detains Russian ‘shadow’ tanker to disrupt war in Ukraine

Moscow has called France’s detention of the ship, and arrest of the captain, an act of piracy.

  • October 3, 2025
News How much of Europe’s oil and gas still comes from Russia?

In 2021, Russia supplied the EU with 45 percent of its gas and 27 percent of its oil. By 2024, these values dropped to 19 percent and 3 percent, respectively.

  • October 3, 2025
News Ukraine strikes choke off Russian oil exports and fuel supplies

Evidence mounts that Ukraine's two-pronged approach is working. Russian regions are short of fuel and export revenues are suffering.

  • September 19, 2025
Publications Advancing Azerbaijan-China Energy Cooperation within the SCO Framework

Vusal GULIYEV By Vusal GULIYEV, Leading Advisor at the Baku-based Center of Analysis of International Relations (AIR Center)

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev delivered a speech at the “Shanghai Cooperation Organization Plus” (SCO+) meeting in Tianjin, China (September 2025) underlining Azerbaijan’s role in regional connectivity and energy cooperation. Energy is a cornerstone of Azerbaijan’s economy and a major area of cooperation with both China and other SCO countries. As a hydrocarbon-rich nation on the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan brings significant oil and gas assets to any partnership. It has leveraged its dialogue partner status in the SCO to advance energy collaboration aiming to diversify its export markets, attract investment in energy infrastructure, and even develop new energy technologies. Building on this foundation, Azerbaijan has gradually shifted its energy focus from its traditional European partners toward emerging Asian markets. Traditionally, Azerbaijan’s oil and gas have flowed Westward to Europe (through pipelines like BTC and TANAP), but now Asian markets are increasingly in focus. China has begun importing Azerbaijani crude oil in recent years. Although volumes are modest relative to Azerbaijan’s exports to Europe, they signal a growing Far Eastern demand. READ MORE

  • September 12, 2025
News What’s next for oil as OPEC+ and Trump shake the market?

OPEC+ is opening the oil taps again, while Donald Trump’s tariffs target Russian crude buyers.Read more

  • August 14, 2025
News EU hits Russian oil, shadow fleet with new sanctions over Ukraine war

European Union says move amounts to one of the strongest sanctions packages against Russia to date linked to the war.

  • July 18, 2025
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