The New End Game (Part 1)[Over]
By Mehmood-Ul-Hassan Khan, EGF Affiliated Expert
The new “end game” has been started by the national, regional and international power brokers. Shahid Khaqan Abbasi, who has been sworn in as the new Prime Minister of Pakistan, has already announced his priorities. He said there would be no load-shedding after November this year, and he pointed out that ten thousands megawatts of additional electricity will be added to the national grid. The completion of the ongoing mega-projects of energy in different parts of Pakistan would also be one of his national priorities. READ MORE
Would have Russia found annoying the participation of Armenia in another NATO exercise?[Over] By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia
Armenia did not turn up for a NATO military exercise in Georgia as was expected. The most probable reason may be the attempt of Yerevan to avoid jeopardizing its strategic alliance with Russia.
On September 3rd, NATO's Agile Spirit 2017 military drills were launched in Georgia with the participation of Georgian, US, Ukrainian, Romanian, Bulgarian, Latvian and Azerbaijani troops. Armenia was among the countries due to participate, but cancelled its involvement although the Armenian Ministry of Defence issued a statement on September 4th saying that Armenia had never decided to take part in that exercise. READ MORE
- September 20, 2017 20:03PM
Turkey's Relations with and Relevance for NATO[Over]
By Eugene Kogan, Tbilisi-based defence and security expert
It should be remembered that Turkey’s relations with NATO were not as smooth as perhaps some experts wished to think, even before the failed coup on 15 July 2016. For instance, back in November 2009 the AKP government was adamant that despite Turkish soldiers’ participation in the ISAF mission they were not combat troops. Turkey's position at the time irked allies in NATO and the US in particular, and it has not changed since then. READ MORE
- September 14, 2017 20:25PM
NATO and Turkey continue to need each other[Over] By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia
In recent months, Turkey has been facing increasing difficulties with key NATO member states. The United States' growing reliance on Syrian Kurdish forces in Syria as a key force capable of effectively fighting Islamic State and US President Donald Trump's decision to arm Kurdish YPG units placed additional strains on bilateral US-Turkey relations, which have been sharply deteriorating since the July 2016 military coup and with Turkey's unsuccessful efforts to organize Fethullah Gulen's extradition from the US. READ MORE
Armenia Takes Leading Position in CSTO[Over] By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia
An Armenian general is now at the helm of the CSTO military alliance. This may prove to be a double edged sword for Armenia.
The South Caucasus is one of the battlefields in the current Russia-West confrontation. As a part of the former Soviet space, the region is perceived by Russia as an area of its legitimate "special interests." For the West, including the United States, NATO and the EU, the view of the region is defined by its role as a key transit route for Caspian energy resources to reach Europe circumventing Russia, and as an important gateway to exert influence in the nearby Middle East. Regional geopolitical competition is further complicated by the onset of Iran and Turkey. READ MORE
What Can We Expect from 2017 in the Settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict? - UPDATED[Over]
Interview with Azenglishnews.com by George Vlad Niculescu,
Head of Research, the European Geopolitical Forum
I would hope to see the year 2017 becoming a watershed in the Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) conflict resolution. To that end, one essential requirement is for the conflicting parties to identify a political compromise that would underpin the conclusion of a peace agreement on Nagorno-Karabakh. It is deemed widely that the inability to produce a resolution on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict so far was, to a large extent, linked to the dilemma regarding the prevailing legal and political principles that would be applicable. READ MORE
- February 22, 2017 04:22AM
Uzbekistan President Karimov’s long-term vision of a Central Asian Nuclear Weapons Free Zone is now much closer to realisation[Over]
Snapshot analysis by Ben McPherson, Principal Editor, European Geopolitical Forum
In May 2014 an important initiative, the Central Asian Nuclear Weapon Free Zone, or CANWFZ, was enshrined by the actions of five nuclear states—the United States, the United Kingdom, France, China and Russia—as they signed a Protocol agreeing to respect the non-proliferation framework. The idea has been discussed since at least 1993, when the President of Uzbekistan, Islam Karimov, proposed it at the UN General Assembly. READ MORE
“Towards Europe?! Straddling Fault Lines and Choosing Sides in the South Caucasus” [Over] 10th Workshop of the PfP Consortium’s “Regional Stability in the South Caucasus” Study Group (RSSC SG)
On 6-8 November, 2014, the PfPC and the Austrian National Defense Academy jointly organized the 10th Workshop of the RSSC SG at “Schloss Rothschild” in Reichenau (Austria). This workshop offered a platform for constructive dialogue among government and academic experts on the prospective roles of the EU and the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) in breaking the current deadlocks in the resolution of the protracted conflicts in Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Nagorno-Karabakh. During this workshop, a panel moderated by George Niculescu, the Head of Research of EGF, examined the background and the potential implications from the perspectives of South Caucasus (SC) states of having to make undesirable choices between the EU and the EEU. The panelists’ presentations and the ensuing discussion highlighted that, against the backdrop of the Ukrainian crisis, maintaining freedom of choice on the ways and levels of engagement with both the EU and the EEU is a critical interest for each SC state, and a prerequisite for effective conflict resolution. In this context, Mr Niculescu thought that “the EU might work towards developing options for harmonizing the European and Eurasian integration normative systems. One of the options to be explored might involve sustaining post-conflict regional economic cooperation as a way to circumvent the dilemma of the states caught in-between competing European and Eurasian integration processes.” READ MORE. Please see the relevant post on Facebook here.
- February 20, 2015 18:32PM
Building Confidence in the South Caucasus: Strengthening the EU’s and NATO’s Soft Security Initiatives[Over] 7th Workshop of the PfP Consortium Study Group “Regional Stability in the South Caucasus”
On 14-16 March 2013, George Niculescu, our Head of Research, attended the 7th Workshop of the PfP Consortium Study Group “Regional Stability in the South Caucasus”, held in Tbilisi (Georgia). Mr Niculescu briefed a distinguished audience consisting of government officials, representatives of the EU and NATO, as well as of experts from regional and international think tanks and civil society on the EGF research paper on "A Pragmatic Review of Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict Resolution: Could Economic Incentives Help Break the Current Stalemate?", published last October jointly with Dr. Marat Terterov. Mr Niculescu thus concluded that “the exit from the current stalemate in the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict would require starting up discussion around economic issues, and that the next step to this end might aim at setting up a comprehensive dialogue among interested businesses and experts from the conflicting parties together with international actors on post-conflict scenarios involving joint regional energy and infrastructure projects.” To see the Policy Recommendations issued in the aftermath of this workshop please click here. To look at the full text of the briefing please click here, and click here for the Powerpoint presentation.”
NATO Strategic Operations in Post-Cold War Security Point to the Core Role of Partnerships in the Way Forward[Over]
By George Niculescu,
Head of Research, The European Geopolitical Forum
Introduction
Since the end of the Cold War, the future of NATO has been a topic for debate among politicians, bureaucrats, scholars and journalists familiar with the European and global security issues. NATO’s future role within the newly evolving global security structure has been a particularly relevant topic for such debates. The North Atlantic Alliance has so far proven itself to be a flexible enough entity in relation to adapting itself to post-Cold War security realities in order to survive the bygone era of the 20th Century. Both political and military leaders of the Alliance have understood the key lesson learned from the fall in relevance of the Warsaw Pact after the collapse of the communism in Central-Eastern Europe: the continuous adaptation of NATO to the new security challenges is the only viable alternative to the Alliance’s disappearance from the geostrategic map. READ MORE
The "Global Swing States" thesis and the Future of the Black Sea Regional Order[Over] By George Niculescu,
Head of Research, The European Geopolitical Forum
In November 2012, the German Marshall Fund of the United States and the Center for a New American Security published a series of papers built upon the "global swing states" concept launched by Daniel Kliman and Richard Fontaine in a report on: "Global Swing States: Brazil, India, Indonesia, Turkey and the Future of International Order". READ MORE
The OSCE’s ‘Asia Pivot’? Implications of the Mongolian Accession[Over] Paul Pryce
EGF Affiliated Expert on Conflict Management and the OSCE Institutions
On November 21st, 2012, a surprising announcement was made in Vienna. Mongolia had acceded as the 57th participating State of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), the world’s largest regional security organization. Mongolia has effectively been an observer state since 2004, involved in the OSCE’s Asian Partners for Cooperation together with Japan, South Korea, Thailand, and Afghanistan. Contributing to the surprise of the announcement, the country’s bid for full participation in the work of the OSCE had only come in late October 2011, when the Lithuanian Chairmanship received a formal letter from the Mongolian government stating their willingness to comply fully with the terms of the Helsinki Final Act, the Charter of Paris for a New Europe, and other documents integral to the OSCE.
Click here to read more.
Ukraine’s OSCE Chairmanship and the Transnistrian Conflict: A Breakthrough in the Making?[Over] Paul Pryce
EGF Affiliated Expert on Conflict Management and the OSCE Institutions
Since the outbreak of initial hostilities in November 1990, the Transnistrian conflict persists. While numerous initiatives have been proposed over the past two decades both by external actors and by the parties to the conflict, the de jure Moldovan government and the de facto Transnistrian authorities, little progress has been made to secure a more lasting peace.
Click here to read more.
Whither the Euro-Atlantic security?[Over] By George Niculescu,
Director of Programs, Centre for East European and Asian Studies Bucharest,
Affiliated Expert, European Geopolitical Forum Brussels
Historically, the roots of the phrase "Euro-Atlantic security" stem from the revolutionary shift towards cooperative relations between NATO and its former adversaries from the Warsaw Treaty Organization promoted through the North Atlantic Cooperation Council and the Partnership for Peace (PfP). From an institutional point of view, since 1997, the Euro- Atlantic security is tightly linked with the Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council (EAPC) which has been created jointly by the NATO members and PfP countries (including Russia, Ukraine, and the other independent republics emerging from the dissolution of the former Soviet Union) as a forum enabling an "expanded political dimension of partnership and practical cooperation under the PfP" [Basic Document of the EAPC]. The EAPC was meant to complement the respective activities of the OSCE, the European Union, and the Council of Europe. READ MORE
The Security of the South Caucasus States and NATO[Over] With the support of the Public Diplomacy Division of NATO Headquarters (Brussels) the Region Research Center (Armenia) has started the implementa- tion of the project " The Security of the South Caucasus and NATO" (December 2011 - March 2012). READ MORE
- February 28, 2012 04:08AM
The Deadlock in the Karabakh Negotiations: A Possible Way Forward[Over]
Dr Beniamin Poghosyan
Deputy Director, Institute for National Strategic Studies, MOD, Armenia
Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia
The Karabakh conflict negotiation process is in an obvious stalemate after the apparent failure of the Kazan summit which took place last June. Three-years of mediation efforts by Russian President Dmitry Medvedev accompanied by efforts of the Minsk Group’s two other Co-chair-state-leaders have delivered no results. The much anticipated breakthrough which should have taken place at the Kazan trilateral summit was transformed into a half page statement with no concrete steps and decisions. President Medvedev’s further efforts to move the process through bilateral meetings with Azerbaijani and Armenian Presidents did not bring any meaningful results. Meanwhile, the situation in the front line is deteriorating mainly due to Azerbaijani snipers deadly attacks and retaliatory actions of Karabakh Armed Forces. READ MORE
Security deficit and possibilities to overcoming contemporary situation In the Southern Caucasus Region[Over]
Prof. Alla A.Yazkova,
Institute of Europe RAS, Moscow
Over the two decades that passed after the USSR disintegration the previously rather calm and in a way peripheral South Caucasus region has become a crossroad of internal contradictions and geopolitical competition. In the subsequent years this relatively small area was gradually turned into a hotbed of numerous conflicts involving not only Southern Caucasus countries but also European and global actors. Interference from the late 1990-s of world powers, first of all the United States and European Union, substantially aggravated situation. The US interest not only in creation of an energy transportation route, but also in barring Russian monopoly domination entailed growth of contradictions that in one or another way involved regional powers – Turkey and in the recent times Iran. READ MORE
The Political Challenges Confronting post-Gaddafi Libya[Over]
By Naim Ameur,
Senior Manager, Prime Ministry of Tunisia
EGF Affiliated Expert on Maghreb politics
The Particularity of the Libyan Revolution
The success of their Tunisian and Egyptian neighbors in their peaceful revolutions encouraged the Libyan people to end the dictatorship of Colonel Muammar Gaddafi who kept his country underdeveloped and deprived of the natural resource wealth during 42 years. READ MORE
Algeria: The Risks of slipping into deeper political crisis[Over] By Eugen Iladi, Independent Expert
The dramatic events in Tunisia and Egypt, where long-serving presidents have been ousted within weeks of each other by “street-led people’s revolts”, are inspiring demonstrators in other Muslim countries to demand structural political change. Libya is currently gripped by deep political crisis, as is the tiny Gulf Monarchy of Bahrain, whilst revolts are ongoing in Yemen, Morocco and Iran. Furthermore, Algeria seems to be one of the next countries possibly hanging in the balance, where the prospect of regime change must now be a question of serious concern. READ MORE
Moscow Domodedovo airport terror act: between shallow security and social unrest[Over] Mikhail Roshchin, EGF Affiliated Expert
While many in Russia have become accustomed to gas disputes with Ukraine as the flagship event hailing in the New Year, the start of 2011 brought with it a far more tragic security crisis when a major bomb blast ripped through the crowded halls of Moscow’s Domodedovo airport. The attack occurred in the arrivals area of the airport at 4.32 pm, on 24 January 2011, claiming the lives of 36 individuals and injuring 116 more. An act of terrorism was immediately assumed by many security experts, possibly involving a suicide bomber, who employed an explosive device containing 5-7 kilogrammes of Trinitrotoluene (TNT). Among the victims was Anna Yablonskaya, a 29-years-old Ukrainian playwright and poet who had come to Moscow to receive a prize from the magazine Art of the Cinema for her recent play. This attack follows the March 2010 suicide bombing in which two women, originally from Dagestan, blew themselves up in Moscow’s underground causing the death of 40 commuters. As was the case in the March 2010 attack, separatist-terrorists from the Russian North Caucasus were suspected of involvement in the Domodedovo attacks. These suspicions appeared to be confirmed earlier this month, when Chechen rebel leader, Doku Umarov, claimed responsibility for the bombing on February 4. In his video broadcast confirming responsibility for the attack, Umarov justified his actions on the basis of Russian state policy in the North Caucasus. READ MORE
Bringing Russia into NATO: A Trojan horse in the making[Over] EGF Editorial
Is there any logic behind suggestions aired by senior decision makers, both past and present, that Russia could one day become a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO)? At first glance, Russian membership to NATO may seem as a suggestion bordering on the absurd, given the history of relations between East (Russia/the Soviet Union) and West (the Euro-Atlantic bloc), as well as the fact that “Cold War warriors” are still in positions of power and influence on both sides of the former-Iron Curtain. That being said, the prospect of Moscow joining the NATO alliance has been implied publically by former-Russian presidents, Boris Yeltsin in 1991, Vladimir Putin in 2000, and by former-NATO Secretary-General, Lord Robertson, at a high level political conference in the Russian city of Yaroslavl just last September. READ MORE
- February 10, 2011 11:14AM
EGF Expert Comment[Over]
Mikhail Roshchin
Expert on Radical Islam in the Russian North Caucasus
The Attack on the Chechen parliament in Grozny: Jihad becomes a significant element of everyday life in the Russian North Caucasus
On the morning of 19 October 2010, Chechen Jihadists attacked the parliament building in Grozny, the capital of the Chechen Republic, in the North Caucasus region of the Russian Federation. Six people were killed, including two police officers, one parliament employee and three Jihadists. The attack took place as Russian Interior Minister, Rashid Nurgaliev, was visiting Chechnya. Also at the time of the attack, the chairman of the Chechen parliament, Dukwaha Abdurahmanov, was in discussions with a visiting delegation from the Legislative Assembly of Sverdlovsk Region (in Central Russia). The fact that the attack was timed with the presence of the Russian Interior Minister in Grozny, strongly suggests that the rebels are supported by persons from within the Chechen government structures. It is thus highly likely that the attack was planned carefully and planned from the inside. According to Igor Danilov, a member of the Sverdlovsk delegation, the gun battle between jihadists and the Chechen security forces lasted as long as one hour.
Furthermore, a number of experts on the region have suggested that the attack was orchestrated under the leadership of Hussein Gakaev, a Chechen field commander who opposes the position of Chechen Jihadist leader, Dokka Umarov, as Emir of the self-proclaimed Caucasus Emirate. Gakaev, in his position of refusing to recognize Umarov’s authority, is himself supported by two other leading field commanders of the Chechen Jihad (one Chechen, Aslambek Vadalov, the other Arab). It is worth recalling that on 29 August of this year, Hussein Gakaev and his followers organized an attack on the childhood home of the current president of the Chechen Republic, Ramzan Kadyrov: the village of Tsentoroi. Taking into account these two attacks, which were seemingly perpetrated by Gakaev and his followers, we can deduce that genuine political instability continues to prevail in Chechnya at present, as well as in the wider-North Caucasus region of Russia as a whole. These unsavory incidents, and particularly yesterday’s brazen attack on the Chechen parliament, provide further evidence that Jihad has become a significant element of everyday life in this unruly region of the Russian Federation.
Click here to read Mikhail Roshchin’s recent article on The Caucasus Emirate and the Movement of the Military Jamaats
- November 30, 2010 05:56AM
The EU-Russia Energy Partnership: Overcoming the Challenges[Over] The energy trade between Russia and the countries of the European Union (EU) is of fundamental significance for the energy security of each party. Despite the close proximity of the EU-Russia energy relationship, however, the legal and political basis underpinning this relationship, particularly with regards to the gas trade, has proven itself inadequate in guaranteeing the energy security of both parties. Russia's recent announcement of its intention "of not becoming a member" of the Energy Charter Treaty, and new proposal for global energy security has created further uncertainty. While it is hoped that a new government in Kiev will lead to an improvement of Russian relations with Ukraine, Ukraine's national gas transportation operator remains in a difficult financial position and another gas crisis embroiling Ukraine, Russia and the EU, whilst hardly imminent, cannot be entirely ruled out.
Leading Russian and international energy professionals have shared their views on these energy policy challenges in an online session. Click here to go into the discussions or here to view forum summary
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