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Will the Fire of the Middle East Expand to the South Caucasus?

January 8, 2025 06:52AM

By Yeghia TASHJIAN, Beirut-based regional analyst and researcher, columnist, "The Armenian Weekly”

When on November 24, a U.S.-mediated ceasefire was brokered between Lebanon and Israel, many did not imagine that within days the Turkish-backed Syrian rebel factions would storm Aleppo and capture the city in less than 36 hours. There are a lot of questions about the preparation and readiness of the Syrian army. However, it was clear that the current status quo under President Bashar al-Assad would not be preserved for a long time, as the country was fragmented and in need of conflict resolution, not conflict management. Since the same regional actors involved in the South Caucasus — Iran, Russia, and Turkey — are also in Syria supporting opposite sides, there are concerns that the fire may expand beyond the Middle East. On November 29, the former al-Qaida associated group currently branded as ‘Hai’at Tahrir al-Sham’ (HTS) along with armed factions from the Turkish-backed ‘Syrian National Army’ (some of whom fought as mercenaries against Armenians in the 2020 war in Artsakh) and some mercenaries from Central Asia and the Caucasus entered the second largest city of Syria. READ MORE

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