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By Tabib HUSEYNOV, independent policy analyst and researcher
Azerbaijan-Russia relations have experienced a series of compounding crises since early 2025, raising questions about the future of Russian influence in the South Caucasus. This paper examines the underlying causes and strategic consequences of this shift in bilateral relationship, highlighting the decline of Russia’s regional influence, alongside Azerbaijan’s emergence as a more autonomous and confident regional power. The paper argues that Azerbaijan’s evolving strategic posture, underpinned by its alliance with Türkiye, its central role in transregional connectivity projects, and its relative economic resilience, has empowered Baku to engage Moscow in a more assertive and transactional relationship. At the same time, areas of interdependence remain, particularly in trade, transport infrastructure, and close humanitarian-cultural contacts, posing both risks and opportunities. The paper concludes that the future of Azerbaijan-Russia relations will hinge on Moscow’s ability to internalize the new power realities in the South Caucasus.
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