By Elkhan NURIYEV, PhD, Senior Fellow at the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation in Berlin

As the war in Ukraine drags on for yet another year, a hard truth is becoming even harder to ignore: Military victory may no longer be a realistic objective for Kyiv — no matter how many billions the West sends, or how many Russian soldiers die. This isn’t a popular outlook in Washington or Brussels, where the assumption persists that enough aid and resolve will eventually break Moscow. But despite Ukraine’s extraordinary resilience and the West’s deep pockets, that outcome is looking increasingly unlikely. Rather, the war is hardening into a grinding stalemate — one that threatens to exhaust Ukraine, fracture Western unity and empower the very regime it was meant to weaken. The question Western policymakers must now confront is not whether Ukraine deserves support, but whether the current strategy is helping it win, or simply helping it survive long enough to lose more slowly. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 03.07.2025  |  Security
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By Shanthie Mariet D’Souza, PhD, founder & president, Mantraya Institute for Strategic Studies (MISS)

Yoga, which originated in ancient India, features many asanas (physical postures) focused on enabling the human body to find a fine balance, while stretching the limbs to achieve maximum flexibility. India uses yoga as a tool of its soft power, celebrating International Yoga Day on June 21 every year, and the present Indian foreign policy making often mirrors such asanas. When faced with stark situations such as taking sides between warring states, New Delhi tends to fall back on a balancing act, avoiding taking sides and advocating diplomacy and de-escalation. However, finding the right balance in matters of statecraft is a tough task, particularly when one side has been perceived to be favoured over the other in the past, but those warm relations are no longer the same. India’s stance on the Israel-Iran conflict contains many such contradictions. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 03.07.2025  |  External Relations
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By Yeghia TASHJIAN, Beirut-based regional analyst and researcher, columnist, "The Armenian Weekly”

On June 13, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced the launch of Operation Rising Lion, aimed at striking Iran’s nuclear facilities and missile capabilities. On the first day of the conflict, Israel targeted Iranian nuclear scientists, Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) officials and later, energy infrastructure and residential areas. In response, Iran launched Operation True Promise-3, sending a missile barrage targeting key infrastructure in Israeli cities, mainly Tel Aviv and Haifa. It is worth mentioning that the Israeli operation took place just two days before the American and Iranian sides planned to hold their sixth round of nuclear talks. By striking first, Israel has blocked the door to diplomacy and now hopes to drag the United States into another regional war, as if the horrors of the 2003 Iraq invasion haven’t disappeared from the Middle East’s collective memory. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 25.06.2025  |  External Relations
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By Shanthie Mariet D’Souza, PhD, founder & president, Mantraya Institute for Strategic Studies (MISS)

Providing humanitarian assistance to the Afghan people has been a tool used by India for both opposing the Taliban in the past and engaging the Taliban now.
It’s springtime in India-Taliban relations. On May 16, 160 Afghan trucks carrying dry fruits crossed over into India from Pakistan, across the checkpoint in Attari. Although the border crossing is closed for Indo-Pak trade and movement of people since the brief conflict between the two nations in May 2025, it seems Indo-Afghan land trade is now open, as long as Pakistan does not play spoiler and create hurdles. In the last week of April 2025, India resumed granting visas to Afghan citizens across multiple categories, four years after suspending all visa services following the Taliban’s August 2021 takeover of Kabul. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 25.06.2025  |  External Relations
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In an exclusive interview with EU Today, Dr Marat Terterov, Founder and Director of the Brussels Energy Club, and Co-founder of the European Geopolitical Forum, outlined the key economic and geopolitical implications of the current crisis and warned against further escalation or any attempt at externally imposed regime change in Iran. According to Dr Terterov, oil prices spiked by approximately 7 percent in the immediate aftermath of the strikes—an early signal of market anxiety. Although prices have since moderated, he emphasised that this stabilisation is largely based on “bets on a ceasefire” and a broad assumption that the situation would not worsen. “Most experts believe Iran lacks the military muscle to sustain an open conflict with the United States or Israel,” he said. While Tehran has voiced outrage over the strikes—carried out during ongoing nuclear negotiations—Dr Terterov cautioned against underestimating the strategic calculus behind Iran’s actions. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 25.06.2025  |  Markets
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By Vasif HUSEYNOV, PhD, Head of Department, AIR Center, Adjunct Lecturer, ADA and Khazar Universities, Baku

The Informal Summit of the Organization of Turkic States (OTS), held on May 20-21, 2025, in Budapest, Hungary, marked a significant milestone in the organisation’s growing geopolitical influence. Hosted by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, the summit brought together leaders from Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Türkiye, and Uzbekistan, alongside observer states Hungary, Turkmenistan, and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus. This gathering, the first OTS summit hosted by an observer state, underscored Hungary’s role as a bridge between the Turkic world and Europe, reflecting the theme “Meeting Point of East and West”. The summit culminated in the adoption of the Budapest Declaration, a strategic roadmap that reaffirmed the OTS’s commitment to unity, cooperation, and addressing global challenges. This event highlighted the organisation’s evolution into a formidable geopolitical player, particularly for Central Asian states and Azerbaijan, as they navigate complex regional dynamics to safeguard their independence and counter threats to their security. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 14.06.2025  |  External Relations
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By Vusal GULIYEV, Policy Advisor at the Center of Analysis of International Relations and Head of Shanghai Office at AZEGLOB Consulting Group

Azerbaijan and Vietnam formally elevated their 33-year diplomatic relationship to a strategic partnership during General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam Tô Lâm’s visit to Baku from May 7 to 8. After signing a joint declaration to form a strategic alliance, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Tô Lâm established numerous cooperation agreements across various sectors, including energy, defence, and culture. Aliyev described the pact as a “very serious political document” that upgrades relations, pledging to turn the signed agreements into concrete projects. Tô Lâm likewise hailed the visit as a new era in the history of relations between the two countries, noting that deepened ties would leverage each side’s strengths for mutual development. This first visit by a Vietnamese Communist Party leader to Azerbaijan underscored Hanoi’s commitment to broader engagement with the Caucasus. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 14.06.2025  |  External Relations
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By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Senior Research Fellow at the APRI Armenia

Profound shifts in the geopolitical dynamics of the South Caucasus, driven by the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War and the onset of the Russia-Ukraine War, have shaped the Armenian government’s pursuit of foreign policy diversification. This report analyses key developments in and around Armenian foreign policy from November 2020—the end of the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War—through March 2025. The 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War, the onset of the Russia-Ukraine War in 2022, and Azerbaijan’s military takeover of Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023 disrupted the regional status quo. In light of the repeated incursions by Azerbaijan and in the absence of a tangible response from Russia and the Collective Security Treaty Organization, the Armenian government intensified its foreign policy diversification efforts. It sought to deepen diplomatic and military cooperation with new and existing partners, notably India, France, the EU, and the US, while opening multiple embassies worldwide. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 14.06.2025  |  External Relations
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By Shanthie Mariet D’Souza, PhD, founder & president, Mantraya Institute for Strategic Studies (MISS)

The objective of connecting the Central Asian economies with those of South Asia has, for a very long time, been a much sought-after, and yet unattained, goal. Both regions see immense potential in connectivity projects that can contribute significantly to their national economies and bind countries in a mutually beneficial economic framework. While the Central Asian states have been at the forefront of pushing such projects forward, progress has been frustratingly slow. Uzbekistan has taken on a leadership role in the region and made Afghanistan the centrepiece of its connectivity projects with South Asia. Will India, the biggest economy in South Asia, bite the bait? READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 06.06.2025  |  External Relations
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By Fuad Shahbazov, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

On May 4, an Azerbaijani delegation of state officials arrived in Damascus at the invitation of the interim Syrian government. Vice Prime Minister Samir Sharifov, who led the delegation, was received by Syria’s transitional President, Ahmad Al-Sharaa. The delegations discussed opportunities for collaboration in key areas, including the economy, energy, culture, and education. The visit followed a meeting between Al-Sharaa and Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev in Turkey at the Antalya Diplomacy Forum, where the two leaders explored the potential for closer ties. The growing diplomatic communication between Azerbaijan and Syria in the post-Assad period reflects Baku’s recalibrating foreign policy and pragmatic engagement with the Middle East as well as opportunities presented by the collapse of a Damascus government that had tilted toward Baku’s rival, Armenia. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 24.05.2025  |  External Relations
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