By EGF Editorial Staff

Since the end of October 2018, a new operative communication line (crisis hotline) has been established between Armenia and Azerbaijan, two countries that have been at war over the status of Nagorno-Karabakh (NK), a region recognized as Azerbaijani by the International Community, but inhabited by a majority Armenian population. According to official sources from both sides, the level of military tension on the Line of Contact (LoC) between the conflicting parties has significantly decreased (from about 90 reports of ceasefire breaches/day, to about 20 reports/day). The opening of this new communication channel had been agreed several weeks before by the president of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, and the Prime-Minister of Armenia, Nikol Pashinyan, during an informal meeting held in the margins of the CIS summit in Dushanbe (Tajikistan) on 27-28 September 2018. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 11.12.2018  |  Security
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By Vahagn AFYAN, Deputy head of Mission, Embassy of the Republic of Armenia to Poland

How can Armenia’s geopolitical context contribute to stability in its immediate vicinity and in NATO’s Southern Neighbourhood?

This paper will consider Armenia’s geopolitical location from the perspective of NATO’s Southern neighbourhood and examine its cohesion, dependability and potential contribution to NATO’s intended task of projecting stability. With regard to NATO and its relationship with Armenia, the first step is to create a better understanding of the particularities of the country and its policy. Increased knowledge of the ongoing integration processes affecting various political, economic and military aspects, as well as internal political developments, will allow a full exploration of the potential for strategic partnership between the Alliance and Armenia. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 18.09.2018  |  Security
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By Eugene Kogan, Tbilisi-based defence and security expert

A policy of deception and denial is the cornerstone of Russia‘s overarching strategy of confusion, paralysis and ultimately defeat of the opponent.

Consistency, conviction and perseverance are key words to describe the policy of deception and denial. The cases presented below shed light on the consistent pattern of President Vladimir Putin’s government to deceive others and depict Russia as the one that comes to the aid of the underdogs, whether in Georgia, Ukraine or elsewhere. Syria is a special case where Russia cannot abandon its military bases to aggressive Western powers. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 10.09.2018  |  Security
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By Eugene Kogan, Tbilisi-based defence and security expert

There is no doubt whatsoever that the lion’s share of the Russian defence budget funds for the years 2011–20 was allocated to the Aerospace Forces (VKS – Vozdushno-Kosmicheskiye Sily) namely, RUR4 trillion out of total RUR19 trillion 1 (or 21 per cent of budget sum US$ 337 billion). The level of financial allocations clearly highlighted the armed forces priority in the eyes of President Vladimir Putin and the top military brass. The forces proved to be a crucial tool in the hands of President Putin and the military establishment. And the VKS continue to play an important role in President Putin’s overall military strategy in particular after a successful operation in Syria. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 28.05.2018  |  Security
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By professor Sadi Sadiyev Saleh, War College of the Armed Forces, Republic of Azerbaijan

An Armenian author, Benyamin Poghosyan, blamed Azerbaijan for lingering Nagorno-Karabach conflict in his recently published paper on “Armenia’s Karabakh Strategy, from Status Quo to Pre-emption”. It is abundantly clear that he hadn’t referred to any legal or reliable documents when he developed that paper. In order to come to grips with this issue we should hark back to the origin of the conflict. We will be focusing on three stages to let you digest the whole information: Where did this issue emanate from? What is the current situation? What are the prospects of future detente? READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 17.05.2018  |  Security
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By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

On May 8, US President Donald Trump made the decision to pull the US out of the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA). This was done despite all efforts of European leaders to convince Trump to stay in. The President of France and German Chancellor Merkel visited Washington late April and UK Foreign Secretary Johnson was in DC on May 6-7. However, all failed to reach an agreement with the US President. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 16.05.2018  |  Security
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By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

The South Caucasus is facing multiple security challenges with no clear path to overcome them in the foreseeable future. The conflicts in Nagorno-Karabakh, Abkhazia and South Ossetia are hampering any efforts to have an inclusive regional cooperation, and are the key reasons for the strained Russia - Georgia relations and absence of relations between Armenia, Turkey and Azerbaijan. Meanwhile, there are no immediately apparent ways to move towards the settlement of these conflicts. Russia deployed military bases in both Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and demanded from Georgia to accept the geopolitical facts on the ground. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 09.05.2018  |  Security
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By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

The April 14 US, UK and France joint strikes in Syria and the heated debates in the UN Security Council just before and after the military action once more emphasized the growing disagreements between Russia and the Western powers on Syria. However, the targeted and limited military strikes have no ability to alter the course of the conflict. Since the launch of the Russian military operation in September 2015, Syrian government forces, with the active support of Russian and Iranian units, have made tangible successes, including the establishment of full control over Aleppo and pushing back rebel groups from the suburbs of Damascus. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 01.05.2018  |  Security
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By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

On April 11, the incumbent President of Azerbaijan lham Aliyev was re-elected for his fourth term in office. Despite a boycott by the Azerbaijani opposition, as well as a tough assessment on elections from western observers, very few doubt that Aliyev will continue to rule in Azerbaijan. On April 9, Armenia finalized its transformation from semi-presidential system of government to a parliamentary one. The Parliament elected a new President - former Armenian ambassador in the UK Armen Sarkissian. His role defined by the new constitution is purely ceremonial. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 27.04.2018  |  Security
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By Fuad Sahbazov, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

Armenia’s dependence on Russia makes it a pivotal foothold of Moscow in the South Caucasus, as the only host country of a Russian military base in the region, as well as a member in the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), and the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU). While the growing arms race in the region and the recent escalation of tensions in Nagorno-Karabakh increased the vulnerability of Armenia, Russia seems to have reinforced its ability to ensure full control over Armenia. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 11.04.2018  |  Security
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