To check the insights into Turkish domestic and international politics during September 16-30th 2012 please see our Turkey File, updated by John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst

Key Points:

• Prime Minister Erdogan leads the AKP party Congress, appearing to position himself for a presidential run in 2014.
• Syria’s civil war is causing violence to flare between the PKK and Turkish security forces (TSK). The porous nature of the Syrian-Turkish border is causing further domestic tensions, as the country’s population remains ambivalent about intervention.
• The Sledgehammer coup case concludes with a conviction and the TSK in its barracks.
• Turkey’s domestic energy needs hit citizens’ wallets as the government cuts subsidies and attempts to increase imports from Iraqi Kurdistan.
• Turkey’s economic success is built on risky factors according to some investors, despite its 8 percent growth.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 09.10.2012  |  External Relations
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ISSUE #38
10/01/2012
President Viktor Yanukovych has refused to comment on the US Senate recent resolution on Ukraine. "I would say any assessment should be treated in earnest: whether it is biased or not, adopted according to procedures or not. It is not up to us to judge the US Senate," he said in the USA on 26 September 2012. However, Yanukovych noted that the Senate stance was slightly different from that of the Department of State and the White House. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 08.10.2012  |  External Relations
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A Snapshot of Key Developments in the External Relations of the Russian Gas Sector for September 2012
By Jack Sharples, EGF Associate Researcher on the external dimensions of Russian gas

Key points:

• The European Commission launches an antitrust investigation of Gazprom, as the company is suspected of imposing unfair prices in Central and Eastern Europe. Gazprom claims innocence, but a Presidential Decree preventing Russian strategic companies (such as Gazprom) from disclosing information to foreign investigators without Russian government permission suggests that Moscow is concerned about the investigation.
• President Putin claims that the second line of Nord Stream is to be launched on 8 October, although this is yet to be confirmed by Nord Stream AG, Gazprom, or the Russian Energy Ministry.
• South Stream AG considers tenders for steel pipes for South Stream, as Gazprom vows to continue with the project despite the launching of the antitrust investigation of Gazprom by the European Commission.
• Gazprom hosts a meeting with the Chinese National Petroleum Corporation and claims ‘a step forward’ in long-running negotiations, although sources suggest significant disagreements remain between the two parties.
• As Ukraine seeks lower gas purchases (27 bcm) from Russia in 2012, a new winter dispute cannot be ruled out.
• Gazprom indefinitely suspends the Shtokman project, but signs a long-term cooperation agreement with Rosneft for the development of Russia’s continental shelf.
• Gazprom and Japan’s Agency for Natural Resources and Energy sign a Memorandum on the Vladivostok LNG project – with a final investment decision expected in early 2013.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 06.10.2012  |  External Relations
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ISSUE #37
09/24/2012
Selective application of justice has become an obstacle to Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych's visits to the EU, Swedish Foreign Minister Karl Bildt said in an interview with the Kommersant Ukraina business daily on 19 September 2012. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 01.10.2012  |  External Relations
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ISSUE #36
09/17/2012
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kostyantyn Hryshchenko has said he is certain that the Ukraine-EU summit would take place before the end of 2012. Hryshchenko made a statement to this effect on 14 September 2012, the Lb.ua news and analysis website has reported. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 01.10.2012  |  External Relations
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during September 1-15th 2012
Key Points:

• Anti-American protests engulf the Middle East, leaving the U.S. Ambassador to Libya and three other embassy staff dead. Prime Minister Erdogan is the most prominent Muslim leader to criticize violence in the name of religion.
• Bloodshed in Syria continues, although Turkish public opinion remains opposed to military intervention.
• PKK-TSK fighting increases in the country’s southeast, with Ankara focused on PKK fighters’ control of safe havens in northern Syria.
• Baghdad halts new registrations for foreign firms, affecting Turkish investment in Iraq. Oil agreement reached by Erbil and Iraqi Oil Ministry may sooth tensions, but conviction in absentia of renegade, formerdeputy- president, Tareq al-Hashemi, remains a sore point in Turkish-Iraqi relations.
• Turkey and Iran may be on the verge of another energy related dispute and possible arbitration round, as Tehran continues to level Ankara with high gas prices.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 24.09.2012  |  External Relations
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ISSUE #35
09/10/2012
The association agreement with Ukraine can be signed only if Kiev respects European values, President of the EU Commission Jose Manuel Barroso said on 4 September 2012. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 17.09.2012  |  External Relations
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during August 2012
Key Points:

• Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu leads the Turkish effort at the Security Council to establish buffer zones in northern Syria.
• Fears of the PKK’s resurgence in Syria are played up by opposition parties to undermine an already fragile AKP position.
• Relations between Iran and Turkey remain cool after the kidnapping of 48 Iranians in Syria by rebel forces.
• Egyptian President Mursi will propose a four power meeting over Syria between his country, Iran, Turkey and Saudi Arabia.
• Turkey continues to court the KRG of Iraq, with the foreign minister’s visit to Kirkuk infuriating Baghdad.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 15.09.2012  |  External Relations
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A Snapshot of Key Developments in the External Relations of the Russian Gas Sector for August 2012
By Jack Sharples, EGF Associate Researcher on the external dimensions of Russian gas

Key points:

• Gazprom and the Lithuanian Government both claim victory following the Stockholm Chamber of Commerce Arbitration Institute ruling over Lietuvos Dujos
• Gazprom signs contracts with four Turkish energy companies to supply 6 bcm of Russian gas from January 2013, replacing the volumes given up by Turkish state energy company, Botaş, in October 2011
• Nord Stream AG completes the welding of the second string of Nord Stream pipeline and requests permission to conduct research in Estonian territorial waters as part of plans for the expansion of the Nord Stream pipeline
• South Stream could be re-routed via Croatia, bypassing Hungary
• Putin and Yanukovych meet in Sochi, with Ukraine planning to reduce its Russian gas imports and hoping for an (unlikely) gas price discount
• Gazprom CEO, Alexei Miller, held meetings in Belarus, discussed investments in the gas transmission system of Beltransgaz and the expansion of natural gas as a motor fuel in Belarus
• Statoil withdraws from the Shtokman project, ceding its stake to Gazprom – Will Total follow suit?
• Novatek announces a breakthrough deal to supply gas to German utility company EnBW, as E.On Russia confirms that it will buy gas for its power stations from Novatek, not Gazprom, from 2013

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 14.09.2012  |  External Relations
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ISSUE #34
09/03/2012
On 30 August 2012, Secretary of the National Security and Defence Council (NSDC) Andriy Klyuyev said that the agreement on a free trade area (FTA) within the CIS can boost industrial production in Ukraine by 3.5-4 percent in the medium term, providing an additional growth of GDP by up to 2.5 percent per year. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 10.09.2012  |  External Relations
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