Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics
1 January – 5 February 2015
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst

Key Points:

• Fethullah Gulen lambasts the AKP in the pages of The New York Times for Turkey’s perceived lurch toward autocracy. The government responds by seizing Gulen-affiliated Bank Asya for a lack of transparency.
• Free speech and journalism are increasingly under threat in Turkey as the AKP continues to crack down on critics, regardless of the issue.
• Greece’s new right-wing defence minister threatens to undermine Turkish-Greek relations in the eastern Mediterranean.
• The Turkish lira continues to slide against the dollar after the Turkish Central Bank considers cutting interest rates. President Erdogan continues to push for lower rates as a measure of fighting inflation, despite general economic theory to the contrary.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 17.02.2015  |  External Relations
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A Snapshot of Key Developments in the External Relations of the Russian Gas Sector
By Dr Jack Sharples, EGF Associate Researcher on the external dimensions of Russian gas and Lecturer in Energy Politics at the European University of St Petersburg

• Gazprom and the EU: European Commission again delays ruling on Gazprom’s usage of the OPAL pipeline
• Nord Stream: Gazprom abandons plans for Nord Stream extension
• South Stream: Gazprom agrees to buy out its European partners in South Stream Transport
• Turkish Stream: Gazprom agrees on a route for ‘Turkish Stream’ with its Turkish partners, as Botaş is named as the Turkish representative in the project
  - Is Gazprom’s determination to reduce dependence on Ukrainian gas transit realistic?
• Ukraine: Gazprom calls on Naftogaz to pay its debts and reminds them that the ‘Winter Package’ will end on the 1st of April
• Belarus: Gazprom could shut down its representative office and concentrate its activities in the HQ of its Belarusian subsidiary, Gazprom Transgaz Belarus
• China: Gazprom launches increased gas production in the Yamal Peninsula, leading to speculation that this gas is destined for export to China
  - Gazprom Marketing & Trading Singapore signs long-term contract with Yamal LNG

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 04.02.2015  |  External Relations
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Elkhan Nuriyev,
EGF Affiliated Expert

The mounting tension over Ukraine has introduced numerous dangers to the security situation in the South Caucasus. These negative ramifications are further exacerbated by the fact that Russia holds the key to resolving conflicts in the post-Soviet realm, especially in the absence of greater Western assertiveness. But Moscow and Brussels are caught up in geopolitical competition over the region. READ MORE

• Elkhan Nuriyev  |  Published on EGF: 16.01.2015  |  External Relations
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A Snapshot of Key Developments in the External Relations of the Russian Gas Sector
By Dr Jack Sharples, EGF Associate Researcher on the external dimensions of Russian gas and Lecturer in Energy Politics at the European University of St Petersburg

• European Commission extends deadline for final decision on OPAL pipeline to the end of January 2015
• Gazprom and BASF abandon asset-swap agreement
• Gazprom resumes gas supplies to Ukraine, the first since June 2014
  - Background of the dispute
  - The importance of gas storage reserves in Ukraine
• Gazprom signs new gas supply and transit contracts with Belarus to cover 2015-17
• Russia and China sign framework agreement on second pipeline, via the ‘western route’
  - Background of the ‘eastern route’
  - Comparing the two projects
• Estonia imports first gas via Lithuania, a symbolic first step away from Russia

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 13.01.2015  |  External Relations
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics
16 November – 31 December 2014
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst

Key Points:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin announces the annulment of the South Stream project, proposing instead a new pipeline to run from Russia to Turkey.
• President Putin and Turkish counterpart Tayyip Recep Erdogan meet and discuss converging views on economic and energy issues, but note their stark differences on the Syrian Civil War.
• The two countries’ partnership in economic and energy sectors has yet to thaw their strategic divergence in regional affairs, especially in light of Russia’s disputed annexation of Crimea and the different approaches to the conflict in Syria.
• Gulen Movement adherents, including the chief editor of the country’s largest daily newspaper, are arrested on allegations of their part in a coup conspiracy.
• Both the Trans-Adriatic and Trans-Anatolian pipeline projects might be boosted by South Stream’s demise, as the two projects lead the way in the burgeoning Southern Gas Corridor.
• Turkey will stick to its deficit cutting plans despite low energy import prices, though unemployment continues to rise while the lira loses value to the American dollar.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 12.01.2015  |  External Relations
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Special Report on South Stream as Gazprom Abandons the Project and Announces a New Gas Pipeline to Turkey
By Dr Jack Sharples, EGF Associate Researcher on the external dimensions of Russian gas and Lecturer in Energy Politics at the European University of St Petersburg

Special In-Depth Report on South Stream
Gazprom abandons project, proposes new pipeline to Turkey
On the 1st of December, the Russian President, Vladimir Putin, made a significant announcement: the South Stream gas pipeline project has been abandoned, and Gazprom is proposing a pipeline to Turkey as a replacement.
The in-depth report that follows provides background information on the South Stream project, and highlights the difficulties faced by the project long before the decision was taken to abandon it. The report then considers the merits of the proposed alternative – a pipeline to Turkey – before concluding with an analysis of the winners and losers from the decision to abandon South Stream. READ MORE

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 11.12.2014  |  External Relations
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George Vlad Niculescu
Following closely after the ground-breaking Turkey-Russia gas export/pipeline MoU announced last week, another agreement was publicized between the Iraqi government and the KRG that could send additional KRG gas to Turkey. Some argue that, if the KRG ramps up and exports significant volumes, it could pose problems for Putin’s new plan. EGF Affiliated Expert Ahmed Mousa Jiyad explains why this is unlikely. READ MORE

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 09.12.2014  |  Energy
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George Vlad Niculescu,
Head of Research, the European Geopolitical Forum

Just like other parts of Eurasia, the South Caucasus is facing the challenge of a renewed East-West geopolitical competition underpinned by three evolving challenges: 1) a growing ideological gap between Russia and the West; 2) the chronic persistence of protracted conflicts; 3) the dilemma of post-Soviet states: European vs. Eurasian integration.
More specifically, the South Caucasus geopolitical landscape is shaped by:

• the competition between Russia and the West in the wake of the ongoing Ukrainian crisis, which effectively brought the European cooperative security era to an end;
• growing Russian regional assertiveness, whereby the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) is increasingly used as a vehicle for countering strides towards European integration, while OSCE-led conflict resolution is manipulated to create geopolitical leverage over the regional states;
• a tacit Russian-Turkish partnership of convenience, which is basically motivated by... READ MORE

• George Niculescu  |   |  Security
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EGF has released a combined summary document, including analysis, pictures, and other information from both the Brussels and Berlin Stakeholder Consultation rounds. Please click here for the PDF publication.

• EGF Editorial  |   |  External Relations
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics
16 Sep. – 15 Nov. 2014
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst

Key Points:

• The Syrian border town of Kobane becomes a symbolic battleground between the Islamic State (ISIS) and the American-backed Kurdish fighters of the YPG. Turkey sits out the fight, deeming both sides to be terrorists.
• Ankara, while insisting on increased American involvement in the form of regime change in Damascus, allows Kurdish Peshmerga from Iraq to cross into the besieged town.
• The ruling AKP’s attempts to curb free speech on the Internet draw the ire of domestic and international observers.
• Fitch remains reassured of Turkey’s stability for the time being, but a host of issues stemming from the country’s unstable neighbourhood threaten to undermine medium-term growth prospects.
• Turkey remains vulnerable to gas cuts due to the Ukraine-Russia conflict. However, Turkey’s work on diversifying energy imports continues. The Kurdish Regional Government of Iraq is set to increase oil exports to the Turkish port of Ceyhan before the New Year, while improved relations with Greece may give Turkey another foot in the European energy market.
• Despite setbacks in early October, the PKK peace process remains intact. The government must take another step in giving Turkey’s Kurds a reason to stay at the table, though the final decision on whether the peace holds may be left to imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan.
• TANAP moves forward, but the inclusion of Turkmen gas may likely require the completion of a Trans-Caspian pipeline.
• Turkish-owned Genel signs an agreement to begin preparations for the production of two Kurdish Regional Government gas fields in Iraqi Kurdistan. The news comes as Baghdad and Erbil finally agree to revenue and budget sharing, after months of strife.
• President Erdogan offers bold pronouncements on the history of the Americas and Western duplicity in Syria at a conference of Latin American Islamic scholars.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 13.11.2014  |  External Relations
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