Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during 1-15 June 2013
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst

Key Points:

• Despite heavy police action to clear Taksim Square, the protests continue.
• Erdogan’s hard line stance towards the demonstrations is opening a rift inside the AKP, with one camp supportive of President Abdullah Gul’s conciliatory approach towards protesters.
• The prime minister hints at foreign and domestic plots behind the Gezi Park situation, making him look increasingly out of touch with the reality on the ground in Istanbul.
• Turkey’s play in Syria falters as Sunni extremists come to the fore of the opposition. Meanwhile Bashar alAssad’s forces secure victories against the fractured opposition.
• Exxon and TPAO in talks to secure an exploration block for shale gas in the Black Sea.
• Tensions in Iraqi Kurdistan ebb as Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki visits Erbil.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 21.06.2013  |  External Relations
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The Black Sea has lost none of its geopolitical significance over time. Historically, the Black Sea has played an important economic and political role in a wider-region. The realignment of geopolitical and security strategies in Eurasia during the last two decades has led to the “re-discovery” of one of the world’s most significant geostrategic areas. Securing access to new energy deposits from the Caspian has heightened the strategic significance of the Wider Black Sea (WBS) in Western external policy thinking. Unfortunately, since the early 1990s, the region has been bogged down in a belt of protracted conflicts that could potentially threaten both European stability and energy supply, while trans-national crime and other asymmetric security threats are thriving. READ MORE

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 21.06.2013  |  External Relations
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ISSUE # 20
06/17/2013
President Viktor Yanukovych said on 13 June 2013 that he could not see a reason why Ukraine should be deprived of the EU membership prospect. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 19.06.2013  |  External Relations
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during May 16-31th 2013
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst

Key Points:

• Protests in Istanbul’s Taksim Square erupt over a heavy handed police response and government indifference to the protesters’ demands.
• The protest, while minor in the beginning, has been a spark that has brought hundreds of thousands into the streets across Turkey’s major cities, with anger directed at the leadership of Prime Minister Erdogan.
• International press widely covers the protests, drawing the attention of investors who have until recently been extolling the virtues of AKP governance. Should the unrest continue, Turkey’s impressive economic performance could come to a halt.
• Despite civil unrest, the country’s energy future looks bright as NABUCCO West brings on GDF Suez and Turkmenistan seals an agreement for transit rights across Turkey for natural gas shipments.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 11.06.2013  |  External Relations
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By Sébastien Jadot, Guest Contributor to EGF Middle East and Africa Research

June 2013
Key points:

• Boko Haram challenges Nigeria’s security as well as secularism
• The radicalization of Islam in Nigeria – how did it come about?
• A new role for the Shari’a in Nigeria
• The role of Boko Haram in reviving the ideology of extremism
• Is Boko Haram protected by the Nigerian state?
• Evidence of Boko Haram linkages to regional terror groups emerging
• International response not yet decisive
• It may become more decisive when offshoots of Boko Haram begin to appear

• Sébastien Jadot  |  Published on EGF: 11.06.2013
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ISSUE # 18
06/03/2013
On 31 May 2013, Ukraine signed a memorandum on intensifying cooperation with the Customs Union of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia. The Ukrainian side was represented by Prime Minister Mykola Azarov, who signed the document. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 08.06.2013  |  External Relations
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ISSUE # 17
05/27/2013
The European Parliament (EP) supports Ukraine's intention to sign the association agreement with the EU this autumn, but expects Kiev to honour the commitments it has undertaken to this end, the chair of the EP Committee on Foreign Affairs, Elmar Brok, said on 23 May 2013. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 07.06.2013  |  External Relations
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A Snapshot of Key Developments in the External Relations of the Russian Gas Sector
By Jack Sharples, EGF Associate Researcher on the external dimensions of Russian gas

Key points:

• The tortuous legal wrangling between Gazprom, the Lithuanian government, and Lithuania’s main gas utility, Lietuvos Dujos, continues; Gazprom set to finalise its bid for Greece’s gas distribution system operator, DEPA; Gazprom could construct Baltic LNG terminal
• Gazprom rejects an invitation to attend a high level ministerial seminar in Brussels on Ukraine’s energy market, which was jointly organised by the European Commission and the Ukrainian energy ministry; Ukraine could cede control over its gas transit pipelines in exchange for guaranteed transit and a gas price discount
• The construction of South Stream in Serbia will begin in late 2013 according to Srbijagas; South Stream Chief Exec, Marcel Kramer, confirms that South Stream is on schedule for financing in early 2014 and construction of the first line in 2015
• Gazprom and CNPC aim to sign a gas supply contract by the end of 2013; Gazprom could lose its export monopoly in the Asia-Pacific region; freight deliveries from Northern Russia to China via the Northern Sea Route demonstrate the possibilities of LNG exports from Northern Russian to the Asia-Pacific region.
• Rosneft steps up the pressure on Gazprom with its buyout of Itera.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 05.06.2013  |  External Relations
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ISSUE # 16
05/20/2013
On 15 May 2013, the European Commission supported a proposal regarding an association agreement with Ukraine, passing the decision on to the European Council. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 21.05.2013  |  External Relations
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during April 16 th - May 15th 2013
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst

Key Points:

• Domestic politics heat up as the opposition CHP accuses Prime Minister Erdogan of authoritarianism in seeking the presidency after his term as prime minister is up.
• A judicial reform aimed at clarifying aspects of Turkish terrorism laws aims to placate EU critics and could lead to the release of hundreds of imprisoned activists.
• Turkey continues to avoid direct military intervention into Syria’s civil war, though fears of the sectarian conflict’s spread has the country on edge.
• U.S. sanctions aimed at Iran’s nuclear program necessitate Turkish efforts at diversifying its energy reliance away from Tehran.
• Israel makes overtures to Ankara regarding a natural gas pipeline in the eastern Mediterranean, while TANAP is set for construction to begin following ratification of the agreement by both Turkish and Azerbaijani parliaments.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 18.05.2013  |  External Relations
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