Claudia Nocente
EGF Researcher, Global Security

Egypt’s Islamic state on the horizon

Egypt is once again in the headlines. The results of the first, allegedly, free elections after the ousting of Hosni Mubarak as the Egyptian president are causing widespread concern, especially in the West, about the country’s process towards democratization. Many fear that the legacy of the former political establishment will haunt the country for many years to come. Egyptians have been denied any aspect of a wealthy social and political life and are now concerned about the fruits of their courageous actions and the new seeds last year’s events have implanted. What will Egypt look like a year from now? Will it end up embracing a hardline Islamist direction in the administration of political power? READ MORE

• Claudia Nocente  |  Published on EGF: 22.03.2012  |  External Relations
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ISSUE #10
03/19/2012
Ukraine and the European Union intend to initial the association agreement in Brussels on 30 March 2012. At the same time, MPs of the pro-government Party of Regions registered in parliament a draft resolution “On adopting the association agreement including a deep and comprehensive free trade area between Ukraine and the EU”. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 21.03.2012  |  External Relations
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ISSUE #9
03/12/2012
Europe is ready to continue dialogue with Ukraine. The Ukrainian news and analysis website Lb.ua quoted the press service of High Representative of the EU for Foreign Relations and Security Policy Catherine Ashton as saying that the EU intended to initial an association agreement with Ukraine although it will continue to urge the country to implement international standards of justice. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 18.03.2012  |  External Relations
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by Naim Ameur
Expert on political transition in Tunisia and the Maghreb

One year after the Jasmine Revolution of January 14, 2011, Tunisia has successfully advanced in its democratic transition and political reform process. The election of the National Constituent Assembly (NCA) held on October 23, 2011 was well organised, and for the first time in history, it was fair. Al-Nahdha (which means “renaissance” in Arabic), a moderate Islamic party, won 41 per cent of the NCA seats. READ MORE

• Naim Ameur  |  Published on EGF: 08.03.2012  |  Markets
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics
February 2012

Key Points:

• A crisis erupted between state prosecutors and the intelligence service, when members from the latter refused to turn up for questioning regarding an investigation into ties to the PKK. The intervention of prime minister and the parliament have calmed matters for now, but some experts speculate the incident is a result of a break between the AKP and the Gulenist movement.
• Bloodshed in Syria continues while Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu travels to capitals throughout the world in an attempt to drum up support for an UN resolution to stop the violence there. Syrian refugees continue to flood into Turkey’s southern provinces, where the Free Syrian Army is said to be organizing the armed resistance to the regime in Damascus.
• France’s Constitutional Council invalidates the Armenian Genocide draft law passed in January, though both presidential candidates have vowed to push a reworded version upon entering office.
• The cold spell in Turkey shows the weakness in the country’s position as a net importer of gas, while supply issues with Azerbaijan and Iran drastically cut imports amidst increased use in the month. Energy Minister Taner Yildiz met with NABUCCO’s board of partners to discuss the link up of it and TANAP.
READ MORE

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 08.03.2012  |  Markets
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The dynamics of NATO's role in the South Caucasus has been considered against the backdrop of the Wider Black Sea since both geopolitical and policy reasons make the South Caucasus a too narrow geopolitical scope for the analysis of NATO's policies. In fact, in contrast to the situation before the Russo-Georgian war in 2008, the South Caucasus is currently very rarely referred as such in NATO's statements, except for the cases where the Alliance is expressing concerns over the settlement of the "frozen conflicts". READ MORE

• George Vlad Niculescu  |  Published on EGF: 08.03.2012  |  External Relations
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ISSUE #8
03/05/2012
On 27 February 2012, the Kiev Pecherskyy district court sentenced former Ukrainian Interior Minister Yuriy Lutsenko to four years in prison with property confiscation. The court found the former minister guilty of embezzlement and the appropriation of budget funds, which had inflicted the loss of 85,500 dollars on the state. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 07.03.2012  |  External Relations
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ISSUE #7
02/27/2012
Russia has accused Ukraine of unsanctioned withdrawal of gas intended for Europe. The Ukrainian news and analysis website Lb.ua quoted Gazprom's CEO Aleksey Miller as telling Russian President Dmitriy Medvedev during a meeting on 22 February 2012 that Ukraine had allegedly withdrawn Gazprom's transit gas intended for Europe during the February cold snap. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 29.02.2012  |  External Relations
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Within the framework of the IMEMO’s Oil and Gas Dialog Forum BP's chief economist Christof Rühl presented BP Energy Outlook 2030 to the audience of the Russian academics It was stressed that the outlook’s ‘base case’ reflects a ‘to the best of our knowledge’ assessment of the world’s likely path from today’s vantage point, drawing on expertise both within and outside the company. The outlook highlights the growing role of developing economies in global energy consumption, and the increasing share of non-fossil fuels in global energy supply. It emphasizes the central role markets and well-designed policy can play to meet the dual challenge of solving the energy needs of billions of people who aspire to better lifestyles, and doing so in a way that is sustainable and secure. It also notes the uncertainties attached to any long term projection. The discipline of building a numerical projection sharpens our thinking, but the precise numbers are less important than the underlying story of the challenges we all face and the choices we make in producing and consuming energy. To read the report please click EGF or BP

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 27.02.2012  |  Energy
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With the support of the Public Diplomacy Division of NATO Headquarters (Brussels) the Region Research Center (Armenia) has started the implementa- tion of the project " The Security of the South Caucasus and NATO" (December 2011 - March 2012). READ MORE

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 27.02.2012
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