ISSUE #1
01/16/2011
The next round of the gas talks between Ukrainian Energy and Coal Industry Minister Yuriy Boyko and Gazprom's CEO Aleksey Miller will be held in Moscow on 17 January. The Ukrainian news and analysis website Lb.ua quoted Miller as telling Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin on 10 January 2012 that in the process of the negotiations, the Ukrainian party was linking a gas price discount to the setting up of a gas transportation consortium between the two countries. According to Miller, if Ukraine purchases 40bn cu.m. of gas, the discount will be 9bn dollars annually. At the same time, the Gazprom CEO said that the Ukrainian gas transportation system is worth 20bn dollars. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 06.02.2012  |  External Relations
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Karabakh conflict

Angela Khachatryan, the Zhamanak (Time), www.1in.am portal (Armenia)
- Mr. Terterov, what effect can the crisis in Europe have on the countries of association partners to the EU, of which Armenia is one?

MT: I think the main point to take here is the question of whether countries in the EU’s Eastern Partnership framework, or those coming into the wider-European Neighbourhood context, are a priority for EU external relations strategies. Clearly, some countries come higher up the EU pegging order than others. This also depends on which EU member states holds important positions in the EU institutions, including the rotational presidency of the Council of the European Union, and the foreign policy strategies which those countries entertain. Clearly, when France holds the presidency, one can assume that greater EU external policy resources will be directed towards the South Bank Mediterranean countries. This is also likely to be the case even more so now with the EU having to show its “interest” in the region in way of developments associated with the Arab Spring. When Poland, for example, holds the presidency, it is likely greater EU foreign policy resources will be directed towards Ukraine and Belarus. READ MORE

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 05.02.2012  |  External Relations
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during December 2011

Key Points:

• The TSK mistakenly bombs unarmed Kurdish smugglers near the Iraqi border, adding yet another incident that sets back Turkish-Kurdish relations and possibly fueling further violence.
• Military, economic and political ties are severed between France and NATO ally Turkey following the National Assembly’s vote to move an Armenian genocide bill forward.
• Turkey’s Central Bank sells off over $1 billion in dollars to combat rising inflation, though by month’s end the rate had surpassed 10%.
• Azerbaijan and Turkey agree to a new gas transport and supply deal for the Shah Deniz field, upsetting some in Brussels who feel the new pipeline could undermine the time consuming progress for NABUCCO. READ MORE

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 21.01.2012  |  External Relations
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Issue 10: November-December 2011

A Snapshot of Key Developments in the External Relations of the Russian Gas Sector
Key points:

• Gazprom hasn’t given up on its attempts to break into South-East Asian gas markets. Its proposal for a potential trans-Korean pipeline has found support in both North and South Korea. However, North Korea’s change in leadership casts a shadow of doubt over the situation
• Gazprom’s purchase of the remaining 50 percent share in Beltransgaz brought a sigh of relief to European consumers, with transit disputes and Belarusian debts for Russian gas seemingly laid to rest. The purchase is one of several measures designed to bring Russia and Belarus closer together, and demonstrate to Ukraine the potential benefits of selling its gas transportation system to Gazprom
• Nord Stream was launched with great fanfare. The launch has a substantial impact on the current transit situation, with Ukraine looking like the loser of the piece as its transit volumes are increasingly likely to fall
• Gazprom intensified negotiations with Kiev over the possible sale of Ukraine’s gas transit system. Given the sale of Beltransgaz to Gazprom and the announcement that South Stream will go ahead as planned, there is a fair chance that Kiev will give up shares in its gas transport system
• The Turkish national gas pipelines operator, Botaş has refused to renew its 26-year contract to purchase 6 billion cubic metres (bcm) of Russian gas annually, which expired on the 31st of December 2011. Gazprom’s subsequent attempts to circumvent the national supplier have failed: The Turkish Ministry of Energy has refused applications by 26 companies for licences to import Russian gas
• PGNiG has filed an arbitration case against Gazprom for lower gas prices and greater spot-price element in contracts. Even if the Polish company ultimately succeeds in its aim, the process could drag on for months
• Gazprom plans to pay record dividends, estimated to be 200bn Roubles. However, shareholders should not expect such generosity from Gazprom next year: The size of Gazprom’s declared investment programme precludes similar profits next year.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 19.01.2012  |  Energy
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EGF Information Partner, Instituto Italiano Di Studi Strategici held its first Strategic Forum, "Arab Spring: Emerging Implication" on 13 Dec 2011 in Rome. Click here to read the Summary Report of this event. READ MORE

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 02.01.2012  |  Security
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Following the earthquake on October 23, 2011, a second powerful tremor struck eastern Turkey on November 9, killing 40 people including a Japanese rescue worker and two Turkish journalists who were covering the aftermath of the October quake.
The strong quake came on top of a severe cold snap that left much of the province of Van covered in snow, as refugees in the stricken city of Ecris continued to live out of tents. READ MORE

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 30.12.2011  |  External Relations
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ISSUE #38
11/07/2011
The visit by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has yielded no significant result. On November 4, 2011, Max Alier, the IMF Resident Representative in Ukraine, announced that the fund has decided to take a pause in negotiations with Ukraine “to enable some additional technical work to be carried out.” “Policy discussions are expected to resume in the near future,” he noted. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 23.11.2011  |  External Relations
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ISSUE #40
11/21/2011
On 17 November 2011, the Supreme Council of Ukraine adopted a new draft law on electing MPs. As many as 366 lawmakers voted in favour of the bill, with 226 votes being the required minimum for its adoption. Both representatives of the majority and the opposition participated in the vote. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 23.11.2011  |  External Relations
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ISSUE #39
11/14/2011
On 14 November 2011, a temporary special commission for drawing up a new electoral law continued its work. The commission was set up on 3 November 2011. It is noteworthy that it has not achieved any results in its first week of work. The main reason can be attributed to the disagreements regarding the key provisions of the electoral draft law which arise among the MPs representing both the majority and the opposition. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 23.11.2011  |  External Relations
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Executive Summary
On Monday, May 16, 2011, The European Geopolitical Forum staged a roundtable discussion on the “Changing Dynamics of the Wider Black Sea in Regional Security and External Relations” at the Brussels School of International Studies, University of Kent. The roundtable featured key international speakers: Dr. Andrej Kreutz (Canada), renowned international relations specialist and author of the recent book, “Russia in the Middle East: Friend or Foe?”; and Igor Muradyan (Armenia), an acclaimed public commentator on the geopolitics and geo-economics of the Black Sea-Caucasus-Caspian area. The roundtable discussion also drew participation of officials from the Turkish Embassy in Belgium, NATO International Staff Political Affairs and Security Policy Division (IS PASP), the Mission of Ukraine to European Union, the Permanent Mission of the Russian Federation to NATO, the Energy Charter Secretariat, TUSIAD, the Armenian Federation of Europe, the Centre for East European and Asian Studies (Romania) and several other interested stakeholders. READ MORE

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 13.11.2011  |  Security
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