A snapshot of Turkey’s domestic and regional politics during May 2011
Key Points:

• Uprisings in the Middle East continue to make diplomacy a difficult game to master for leaders in Turkey, with Syria’s potential implosion being a matter of great concern for those in power in Ankara.


• With Parliamentary elections scheduled for June 12, and the AKP seeing stronger challenges across the political spectrum, tensions are on the rise in the country. It is unlikely, however, that the AKP will face electoral defeat.


• The Nabucco pipeline continues to be mired in uncertainty as Brussels has not been able to persuade suppliers to sign on to the project. READ MORE

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 06.06.2011  |  External Relations
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ISSUE #18
05/23/2011
On 17 May 2011, the Supreme Council of Ukraine adopted the law “On amending some Ukrainian state procurement acts.” The mass media reported that the new law envisioned several innovations. The most important of them are described below. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 25.05.2011  |  External Relations
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BREAKING NEWS

Prosecutor-General's Office tried to arrest Yuliya Tymoshenko
After eight hours of interrogation Yuliya Tymoshenko left Prosecutor-General's Office
On 24 May 2011, at about 1100 a.m Ukrainian media burst out with reports alerting that the former prime minister, leader of the opposition Fatherland party, Tymoshenko, was detained at the Prosecutor-General's Office (PGO) when summoned to an interrogation. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 25.05.2011  |  External Relations
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Only a clear inciting agent can rapture diplomatic ties with Czech Republic – experts
In response to the expulsion of Czech diplomats from Ukraine, the Czech Republic blamed Ukraine for non-diplomatic behaviour and informed of an intention to act reciprocally. The Gorshenin Institute has conducted an opinion poll asking experts about the effect of the diplomatic scandal on relations between Ukraine and Europe and on the prospects of Ukrane’s European integration as well as the risks of diplomatic ties between the two countries being broken. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Institute  |  Published on EGF: 25.05.2011  |  External Relations
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ISSUE #17
05/16/2011
The celebration of the victory in the 1941-45 Great Patriotic War in Lviv turned into disturbances and clashes. On 9 May 2011, in Lviv representatives of nationalist groups clashed with individuals who were celebrating Victory Day – members of the Communist Party of Ukraine (CPU), the pro-Russian Motherland and Russian Unity parties and veterans. In particular, members of nationalist parties attempted to prevent veterans and civilians from laying flowers at the tomb of soldiers who died in the war. For their part, the supporters of the Motherland and Russian Unity parties unfolded a 30-meter Soviet red flag, which they handed over to local veterans. Nearly 20 people were injured as a result of the clashes. A member of the Freedom nationwide organization was even shot in the leg. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 18.05.2011  |  External Relations
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Morocco’s stable security image shattered in April
Morocco witnessed a severe blow to its external image as one of the more stable and least dangerous North African Maghreb countries at the end of last month, when an apparent suicide bombing in the city of Marrakesh led to the deaths of 17 persons, including a number of foreign nationals. The fatal blast, which took place in a café in Marrakesh’s iconic Djemaa el-Fna square (a Unesco World Heritage site popular with European tourists) on April 28, was the first major, apparent act of terrorism in the country since the 2003 bombings in Casablanca which killed up to 45 people. READ MORE

• Marco Pantelakis and Mhamed Biygautane  |  Published on EGF: 16.05.2011  |  Security
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The Gorshenin Institute has conducted an opinion poll asking experts to answer the following question: “Why are Ukrainian Students Less Proud of their Country than their Contemporaries in Poland, Russia and Kazakhstan?”. The Kyiv-based Gorshenin Institute carried out the “Students – an image of the Future” research in 2011. The survey was taken among young people in Ukraine, Russia, Poland and Kazakhstan. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Institute  |  Published on EGF: 10.05.2011  |  External Relations
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Key Points for Policy Makers:

• The crisis in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is demonstrating that it is high time for Brussels to re- think its strategy towards the countries of the south bank of the Mediterranean
• EU political initiatives in MENA have often focused on democratisation capacity building, when most of the grievances which sparked this year’s revolts on the Arab street have been predominantly socio-economic in character
• Brussels needs to devise effective mechanisms to overcome divisiveness in the narrow priorities of individual member states if it is to become a credible force in the sphere of international crisis management. It also needs to improve its early warning crisis prevention and detection instruments – or develop such capacities
• MENA remains clouded by substantial uncertainty. There is no guarantee that democracy will emerge in the recently “liberated” MENA countries. However, Turkey might be able to offer such countries a credible model of democratic growth.
• Any major disruption in the supply of energy from the Middle East to international markets, as a result of the ongoing protests and civil conflict in the region, is unlikely
• A general realignment may be starting to take place in the Caspian and Central Asian energy markets: Russian may be losing its grip over the region

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 02.05.2011  |  External Relations
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IMF Minimizes Stakeholders’ Risks Demanding Pension Reform in Ukraine – Experts

The Gorshenin Institute has polled experts to learn the prospects of pension reform in Ukraine and whether it will be possible to receive the next tranche from the IMF by not changing pension legislation. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Institute  |  Published on EGF: 02.05.2011  |  External Relations
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ISSUE #15
05/02/2011
Ukraine believes that the negotiations with Russia on revising the gas price formula will be successful, Ukrainian Prime Minister Mykola Azarov has said. “We have started normal talks with Russia. We put very serious arguments on the negotiating table. Russia considered them and that is why the negotiations were really good,” he explained. At the same time, Azarov noted that Ukraine did not ask Russia for any preferential treatment or discounts. “We ask for a general European approach to price formation,” he explained. According to the prime minister, the very fact that the negotiations have been launched signals “clear success.” Meanwhile, Gazprom's official representative, Sergey Kupriyanov, stated once again that the Russian gas monopolist was satisfied with the contract with Ukraine. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 02.05.2011  |  External Relations
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