By Eugen Iladi, Independent Expert

The dramatic events in Tunisia and Egypt, where long-serving presidents have been ousted within weeks of each other by “street-led people’s revolts”, are inspiring demonstrators in other Muslim countries to demand structural political change. Libya is currently gripped by deep political crisis, as is the tiny Gulf Monarchy of Bahrain, whilst revolts are ongoing in Yemen, Morocco and Iran. Furthermore, Algeria seems to be one of the next countries possibly hanging in the balance, where the prospect of regime change must now be a question of serious concern. READ MORE

February 21, 2011

The year 2011 has commenced with unprecedented levels of political turmoil, violence and tension in the Middle East. While this will not necessarily come as a surprise to readers of our previous research on the region, the fact that the Tunisian and Egyptian presidents have been dismissed from power barely within weeks of one another as a result of wide-scale street demonstrations in these two countries, clearly implies that the region has once again entered into a “game breaking” situation. As violence and further protests continue to spread rapidly across the region, the key question of concern to governments, investors and Middle Eastern ruling elites is now which regime is likely to fall next ? Despite the often overlooked heterogeneities of the region, the dramatic events already having taken place in Tunisia and Egypt in the first weeks of 2010 have inspired a domino effect of protests. Demonstrations of varying degree of magnitude are presently engulfing Bahrain, Yemen, Libya, Algeria, Morocco and Iran. They have also taken place in Jordan, while smaller scale demonstrations were planned in Kuwait. While other states across the Middle East are reporting less protest activity, the threat that the Egyptian-Tunisian contagion is posing to the region as a whole cannot not be underestimated. READ MORE

EGF Editorial

Is there any logic behind suggestions aired by senior decision makers, both past and present, that Russia could one day become a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO)? At first glance, Russian membership to NATO may seem as a suggestion bordering on the absurd, given the history of relations between East (Russia/the Soviet Union) and West (the Euro-Atlantic bloc), as well as the fact that “Cold War warriors” are still in positions of power and influence on both sides of the former-Iron Curtain. That being said, the prospect of Moscow joining the NATO alliance has been implied publically by former-Russian presidents, Boris Yeltsin in 1991, Vladimir Putin in 2000, and by former-NATO Secretary-General, Lord Robertson, at a high level political conference in the Russian city of Yaroslavl just last September. READ MORE

On January 24th through January 26th, 2011, Gorshenin Institute has conducted a phone survey "Explosions in Makeyevka". A total of 1000 respondents age 18 or older representing all 25 regional centers, Kiev and Sebastopol, were selected at random following a systematic procedure aimed at filling sex, age and community quotas. The margin of error is no higher then +/-3.2%. Results of the survey conducted among the residents of Makeyevka are presented separately. READ MORE

The Gorshenin Institute has asked experts about the key positive and negative aspects of the resolution on Ukraine adopted by the European Parliament. READ MORE

December 2010

Key positions:
• In recent months Turkey has witnessed harsh prison sentences and threats of litigation by Turkish authorities in response to Kurdish protests and unfavourable press respectively in the past months. This is a worrying sign in that after nearly a decade in power, AKP authorities have become just as reactionary as the military backed governments of previous decades, only this time with an Islamic tinge.

• At the NATO Lisbon Summit on November 19-20, Ankara claimed victory for swaying its allies away from designating Iran as the main threat facing the alliance with regards to a proposed missile defence system which NATO is currently considering. While Turkish government officials indicated prior to the conference that they would demand command and control of the system if based on their territory, in Lisbon, that decision was put off for future discussion.

• Wikileaks’ release of American diplomatic cables have detailed the gossip and personalities of leading AKP politicians, but offered little else that could be described as damaging.

• In regional energy developments, Russia and its energy subsidiary, Gazprom, have been opting for pragmatism over threats in recent months by signing deals throughout the region with Bulgaria, Serbia, and Ukraine in order to strengthen prospects of realising the South Stream gas pipeline. Brussels and Sofia, for their part, have reached an agreement on bank guarantees for Nabucco (the EU’s rival to South Stream). READ MORE

Dr. Marat Terterov spoke at the International Conference, Gas Forum 2010 on 13th -14th September, 2010 in Warsaw, Poland, addressing the topic of “Old players, new identities and bargaining Instruments: A cost-benefit discussion of Southern Corridor oil and gas pipeline.” Please click here to read the key messages of the lecture and here to visit the conference program.