By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

Since gaining independence in 1991 Armenia has faced tough challenges in building relations with two of its four neighbors – Azerbaijan and Turkey. Relations with Azerbaijan were mainly influenced by Karabakh conflict. Armenia was supporting Nagorno Karabakh Armenians to defend themselves against Azerbaijani aggression. The end of hostilities in 1994 and the signature of a ceasefire agreement did not bring up peace, and negotiations are still underway, for the last 23 years, to find a mutually accepted settlement. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

Armenia, the European Union and Russia had more to gain than lose from the signing of the new Armenia - EU enhanced co-operation agreement. Paradoxically Armenia's membership of the EAEU was transformed from a liability into an asset during Yerevan's second attempt at negotiations with the EU.
On November 24, 2017 Armenia and EU signed a Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement (CEPA) during the Eastern Partnership Brussels summit. The negotiations were launched in December 2015, and the agreement was initialled in March 2017. This was the second attempt to sign a new agreement between Armenia and EU. In 2010 – 2013, negotiations were held to elaborate an Association Agreement (AA), including the establishment of the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

Georgia and Armenia need to develop a strategic relationship in order to see off a number of geo-political challenges.
Armenia and Georgia are both facing tough foreign policy challenges. Armenia has to deal with constant, joint, Azerbaijani-Turkish pressure over the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Another hard task is the effort to develop relations with the Euro-Atlantic institutions, whilst simultaneously not jeopardizing strategic relations with Russia. The alliance with Moscow is itself a challenge given Armenia's overdependence on Russia, and Russia's growing cooperation with Turkey and Azerbaijan. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

All three internationally recognized republics of the South Caucasus – Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia - are facing hard challenges in pursuing their foreign policies. They have to take into account contradicting/coinciding interests of regional and global actors involved in the region. The main purpose of this article is to analyze the main challenges and opportunities of Armenian, Georgian and Azerbaijani foreign policies with a focus on their interactions with Russia and the West. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia
President Trump's decertification of the Iran deal will put in jeopardy a number of regional projects.
One of the key events shaping the geopolitics of the Middle East in the coming days most probably will be the US President Donald Trump's decision to decertify Iran nuclear deal (formally called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action - JCPOA), signed in 2015. President Trump has been a vocal opponent of the deal since he entered the Presidential race, and continued his tough stance on Iran after his election. The latest vivid example of this approach was President Trump's speech at the 72 Session of the UN General Assembly in September. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

China's growing involvement in the South Caucasus may provide Armenia a much needed flexibility in its foreign policy.
On August 9, 2017 work started on the construction of China's new Embassy building in Yerevan. Armenian Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian, Yerevan's Mayor Taron Markarian, and visiting Chinese Assistant Foreign Minister Li Huilai participated in the ground-breaking ceremony of the 40,000-square-meter embassy compound that should be completed by the end of 2019. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

Trump's hard line approach towards Iran may derail ambitious plans to develop North-South trade and transport corridors in the South Caucasus.
On May 20, 2017, US President Donald Trump arrived in Saudi Arabia on his first stop of his week-long international trip. The new US President chose the Saudi visit as a focal point for presenting key pillars of his Middle East policy. Delivering a speech to the Arab - Islamic - American Summit, President Trump stressed the significance of the fight against terrorism and the important role regional states have to play in that struggle. Another key point of his speech was tough criticism directed against Iran. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

On 14-15 May 2017, 29 world leaders, including Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Erdogan, gathered in Beijing for the international forum of the "Belt and Road" initiative. The Forum was the biggest event since the launch of the 'One belt one Road' initiative put forward by Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2013. China invited countries and regions to jointly build the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road with at least five routes of economic cooperation. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

On March 21, 2017 Armenia and the EU initialed a new bilateral Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement. This is an important milestone in bilateral relations, especially taking into account Armenia's last minute withdrawal in 2013 from initialing its Association Agreement negotiated within the framework of the EU Eastern Partnership program. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

The perspectives of the US – Russia relations under the Trump Administration is one of the key foreign policy issues hotly debated in political and expert circles both in the US, Russia and elsewhere. The steep deterioration of bilateral relations since the start of the third Presidential term of Vladimir Putin brought back into the scene almost forgotten terminology of “Cold War”, “containment”, “great power rivalry”. READ MORE

by George Vlad Niculescu, Head of Research, the European Geopolitical Forum

How could the EU best deal with a revisionist Russia who challenged the post-Cold War European security order, most notably in Ukraine and in Georgia? We should probably start from considering EU’s current strategic options in its Eastern Neighbourhood.  The key question here is what should be the EU’s objective in this contested region? Is it to find a compromise solution with Moscow on how to fix the broken security order? Or is it to defend its shared values in the Eastern Neighbourhood, and to eventually annihilate the Russian power and influence? READ MORE

Prime Minister Binali Yildirim said that Turkey is heading to restore relations with Damascus. "We will expand our circle of friends. We have already begun to do so. We normalized our relations with Israel and Russia, and now, I am sure, we will do the same with Syria. We need it to be done", - said Yildirim, speaking on Turkish television. READ MORE

Armen Grigoryan,
EGF Guest Contributor

After the recent clashes between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces, Russia’s leadership attempts to act more decisively in order to compromise the OSCE Minsk Group mediation efforts and to compel Armenia and Azerbaijan to accept Russia’s special role in the region. Russia’s proximity and strong influence over political elites and societies gives it an advantage over other Minsk Group co-chairs – the U.S. and France. However, the lack of security guarantees and economic perspectives may induce Armenia to start reviewing its attitudes concerning relations with different international actors and regional integration frameworks. READ MORE

This article was first published by the "Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program Joint Center" which holds the copyright for it.”

10^th Workshop of the PfP Consortium’s “Regional Stability in the South Caucasus” Study Group (RSSC SG)

On 6-8 November, 2014, the PfPC and the Austrian National Defense Academy jointly organized the 10^th Workshop of the RSSC SG at “Schloss Rothschild” in Reichenau (Austria). This workshop offered a platform for constructive dialogue among government and academic experts on the prospective roles of the EU and the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) in breaking the current deadlocks in the resolution of the protracted conflicts in Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Nagorno-Karabakh. During this workshop, a panel moderated by George Niculescu, the Head of Research of EGF, examined the background and the potential implications from the perspectives of South Caucasus (SC) states of having to make undesirable choices between the EU and the EEU. The panelists’ presentations and the ensuing discussion highlighted that, against the backdrop of the Ukrainian crisis, maintaining freedom of choice on the ways and levels of engagement with both the EU and the EEU is a critical interest for each SC state, and a prerequisite for effective conflict resolution. In this context, Mr Niculescu thought that “the EU might work towards developing options for harmonizing the European and Eurasian integration normative systems. One of the options to be explored might involve sustaining post-conflict regional economic cooperation as a way to circumvent the dilemma of the states caught in-between competing European and Eurasian integration processes.” READ MORE. Please see the relevant post on Facebook here. 

A highly successful roundtable discussion on Exploring the Role of Economic Initiatives as Peace Building Tools in the Nagorno-Karabakh Context took place on the 27th of March, 2014, at the European Parliament.  The event was organized by the European Geopolitical Forum and international NGO partners, and was attended by more than 40 experts from the South Caucasus region and Brussels-based think tanks and international organizations who engaged in discussion in a constructive, informal ‘atmosphere of exchange’. The roundtable focused constructive energies on discussing a common future in an economically integrated South Caucasus, as a way to build mutual trust aimed at helping to overcome the current stalemate within the political and security negotiations.

As part of its work, EGF recently published a study entitled “A Pragmatic Review of Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict Resolution: Could Economic Incentives Help Break the Deadlock?”.  While this research was well received by stakeholders monitoring developments on Nagorno-Karabakh, the study concluded that economic incentives, on their own, could not substitute for a political settlement to the conflict itself.   We were subsequently invited by Armenian, Azerbaijani and international stakeholders to expand on the above-mentioned research. Consequently, in 2014, EGF has deepened its existing research on ‘economic incentives as peace building tools in the unresolved conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh’, and has planned to publish a new study towards the end of the year.  This research will include extensive outreach activity consisting of consultation rounds with stakeholders and presentation of the research findings.

The roundtable discussion on the 27th of March was the first outreach event, and it comprised three main interactive discussion sessions. Each session was initiated by a few ‘discussion openers’, and followed by fully interactive dialogue under the Chatham House Rule.  Participants agreed that this roundtable should not be a one-of event, but it should lead to further dialogue on economic issues among experts and businesses, while opening a new section of Track 2 efforts for conflict resolution.  For the programme, pictures of the event, and biographies of speakers and participants from the region, please click here.  A more detailed follow-up report is forthcoming.

Valentin Stoyanov
EGF Affiliated Expert

Bulgaria fails to bring in the ‘big energy projects’
Over the past two decades Bulgaria has had no success with the so called ‘big energy projects’. The recent failure of NABUCCO was also a failure of the country’s efforts to diversify its gas supplies. The prospects for shale gas exploration and production look similarly grim after a moratorium was imposed by the Parliament in the beginning of 2012. READ MORE

By Professor Andrei Kreutz,
EGF Adviser on Trans-Atlantic Security

During the last few weeks, the Syrian-American-Russian triangle directly or indirectly involving all Syria’s neighbors and a number of other nations, has become one of the major focuses of the political commentaries. The Russian initiative to help disarm Syria from its chemical weapons and Putin’s article which was published in the New York Times on September 11, 2013 apparently contributed decisively to prevent a new American military intervention in the Middle East, and brought Russia and its leader world-wide public attention, unknown since the collapse of the Soviet Union. According to the well-known American political analyst George Friedman, for the first time since the early 1990s, the Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov was able to sit with US State Secretary Kerry as an equal. READ MORE

By Major-General, Doctor of Political Science, Hayk Kotanjian
Guest contributor to EGF

On October 10 2013, within the framework of the Kyrgyz Republic’s chairmanship in the CSTO, an academic-practical conference “Afghanistan 2014: Prospects of the situation in the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, challenges and threats to security in Central Asia in the context of the withdrawal of main contingents of the International security assistance force" took place in Bishkek. Experts from 27 countries, as well as from the CSTO, NATO, the UN, the OSCE, the EU, the SCO, the ICRC and other international organizations attended the conference. READ MORE

George Vlad Niculescu,
Head of Research, The European Geopolitical Forum

The announcement at the beginning of September 2013, in Moscow, by President Serzh Sargsyan of Armenia's decision to join the Russia-led Eurasian Customs Union (ECU) apparently took many by surprise. Firstly, because in July 2013 Armenia concluded a lengthy four years negotiation on essential agreements, meant to upgrade its ties with the European Union (EU), which would be incompatible with joining the ECU. Secondly, because until recently (i.e. the run-up to the Vilnius Eastern Partnership summit to be held this fall) enlargement didn't seem a top priority for the ECU, the focus being more on making the customs union mechanisms effectively work for the existing membership. READ MORE

Interactive discussion hosted by the European Geopolitical Forum

On 18 June 2013, the European Geopolitical Forum (EGF) hosted an interactive discussion on “Conflict Management, Regionalism and Economic Integration in the South Caucasus: Does a light at the End of the Tunnel Exist?” in the hospitable premises of TUSIAD, Brussels. The debate was introduced and moderated by Dr. Marat Terterov, Executive Director, European Geopolitical Forum. It was attended by around 25 policy makers and experts from relevant Brussels-based international organizations (including NATO, the European Union, and the Energy Charter), NGOs, think tanks and embassies. READ MORE

by Prof. Andrej Kreutz,
EGF adviser for Trans-Atlantic security

The issue of soft power and its use in international relations, the concept of attracting and coopting rather than use of direct or indirect coercion as a means of persuasion, was introduced to present use by American scholar Joseph S Nye Jr. in 2002. However, both its concept and its practical use were in fact not new. Both modern and past history provides numerous examples of its previous applications. READ MORE

By Claudia Nocente,
Research Associate Global Security
February 2013

Key points:

• Egypt’s new administration between international praise and domestic unrest
• Morsi assumes pharaonic powers in an attempt to rid Egypt of Mubarak judges
• The felool take another shot in Egyptian politics
• The generals remain silent
• The Egyptian economy sinks. READ MORE

Dr. Andrej Kreutz
EGF adviser on trans-Atlantic security

When discussing the place in the international system and the foreign policy of any major country, one needs to take into account its historical background and transformations of its image in the eyes of the world. Because of the special and rather unusual features of both Russia’s geopolitics and history, the need to do that seems even more necessary. Click here to read more.

Debates about the geopolitical, geo-economic and strategic significance of the wider-Black Sea (WBS) region have become fashionable amongst Western policy makers and the international scholarly community since the end of the Cold War. While the Black Sea represented a “front line” in the stand-off between rival superpower blocks during an age which now seems to have slipped into the bygone days of our youth, the major geopolitical realignments which have taken place in Eurasia during the last two decades have evidently led to our “re-discovery” of one of the world’s most historically significant geostrategic playing fields. To read more click here.

Mehmet Öğütçü,
EGF Expert The discovery of large gas reserves off the coasts of Israel and Cyprus posed a number of dilemmas for Turkey. Its response reflected both resource rivalry and underlying political conflicts. Turkey and its neighbors need to avoid harsh rhetoric and brinkmanship. Instead, pending solutions of bilateral differences, they should consider interim agreements to reduce risk and allow exploration and production to go ahead in a more predictable environment. To read more click here.