By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

The recent US – Iran escalation is the hot topic for the Middle East pundits. Many policy briefs have already been published discussing the motives behind the US and Iran actions, the implications of these developments on the US Presidential campaign and Iranian Parliamentary elections. Many experts are seeking to assess the future of the US – Iran relations and the Iran’s influence in the region. Meanwhile, US – Iran tensions which fell short of a full blown war will have an impact also on Russia – Iran relations and in particular on their uneasy partnership in Syria. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

In 2019, the EU and six Partner states are celebrating the 10th anniversary of the Eastern Partnership (EaP) program. Many conferences, expert workshops and other events were organized to assess the success and failures of the EaP. Meanwhile, alongside assessments of the past, the future of the program is also being actively discussed. EU even launched the ‘Structured Consultation” on the future strategic direction of the EaP and tasked the European Commission and the European External Action Service to present proposals. Member States and Eastern Partners, as well as other actors, including civil society, academia and think-tanks were invited to share their views on a new post-2020 policy framework, and the perspectives of EU enlargement. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

The South Caucasus always has quite complicated geopolitics. Russia, the US, the EU, Iran, Turkey, and China all have interests here. Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia have different domestic political structures and cultures. Besides that, their national security threat perception and foreign policy goals do not coincide with each other. The protracted conflicts in Nagorno Karabakh, Abkhazia, and South Ossetia make the regional geopolitics even more complicated. All actors involved in the South Caucasus seek to exploit these conflicts to pursue their national interests; meanwhile, conflicting parties themselves have an absolutely different understanding on how these conflicts may be resolved. READ MORE

By Armine Arzumanyan, Graduate of Renmin University, PR of China

China's main goals in Central Asia may not directly hint at the region's long-term strategic importance, but the outcomes of China's engagement in the region clearly show concrete signs of it. China's emergence as the dominant actor in the region’s energy and infrastructure sectors, along with its growing presence as the lender of choice for Central Asia, has had deep consequences as Beijing has quietly cultivated the defense component of its newfound presence in region. Though relatively little studied, China's energy-infrastructure-defense tridimensional approach is of immense importance. READ MORE.

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

Prospects of Russia - China relations are currently hotly debated by international security pundits. The West in general, and the US in particular, see these two states as key adversaries seeking to undermine the international world order. Simultaneously, the prevailing mood among Western expert and academic circles is confident that, at the end of the day, China is a more significant challenge to Russia than it is to the West, given the vast and scarcely populated areas of Siberia and the Russian Far East bordering China. READ MORE

Joint Study with “Yeni nesil”, coordinated by Boris Navasardian, President, Yerevan Press Club

The main purpose of this study was to consider the feasibility and prospects of revival of the Track-2 diplomacy and the development of appropriate recommendations. Although it was conceived and supported by the US government even before the political changes in Armenia, its relevance was confirmed by the intensification of the dialogue at the official level between Yerevan and Baku in the summer of 2018. Certain characteristics of the renewed interest in the informal communication were revealed during the visit to Yerevan of the Azerbaijani journalist Shahin Hajiyev, in February 2019, and by the interest of Armenian journalists to visit the neighboring country. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

The relations (or the lack thereof) between the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and European Union (EU) are one of the key topics of debate between international relations pundits. There are different assessments regarding the current situation and the way forward. However, almost all experts agree that the key issue here resides in the relationship between Russia and the West (US/EU/NATO). As long as this relationship is at its lowest point since the end of the Cold War, there is almost no chance of any substantial cooperation between these two organizations. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

Armenia and China are both among the ancient civilizations of human history. They share millennia of mutual contacts via the ancient Silk Road. However, history is not the only thing which unites the two nations. Both Armenians and Chinese put enormous emphasis on protecting their national identities and traditions. Of course, this does not mean that Armenia and China are not interested or involved in the current wave of globalization. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

In recent years, Russia – Turkey relations have gone through tremendous transformations. In November 2015, they entered the phase of acute crisis with no hope of quick improvements. However, in summer 2016 the process of reconciliation was launched, which resulted in bringing an unprecedented level of cooperation in economy and in the military-technical sphere. What are the main factors for such change and what does the current Russia – Turkey partnership mean for the South Caucasus. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

The expert community dealing with international relations and security studies is involved in active debates regarding the current phase and future developments of the international security architecture. The prevailing topic is the end of United States (US) unipolar hegemony and establishment of more multi-polar, but an unstable and more complicated world with less respect towards the international laws and growing emphasis on coercive policy including threats and use of military force, economic sanctions and hybrid tactics. READ MORE

By Fuad Shahbazov, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

On 5th April of 2019, a meeting of the railway authorities of Kazakhstan, China, Iran, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan took place in Almaty dedicated to advancing cargo traffic along the North-South Transit Corridor. In fact, the participation of Uzbekistan in the project will shorten the route of goods from China to Iran and forward. Being a part of the ambitious North-South Transit Corridor, the China-Kazakhstan-Turkmenistan-Uzbekistan-Iran railway can shape the geopolitics of Central Asia. READ MORE

By Eduard Abrahamyan, Wider Black Sea & Central Asia regional security analyst

While the standoff between adversaries rages on, recent weeks saw an intensified communication between American and Russian high-level officials over the wide array of issues on which Moscow and Washington have contrasting views. On May 14, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo met with his Russian counterpart, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, and later with President Vladimir Putin in the Russian Black Sea city of Sochi. READ MORE

By Armine Arzumanyan, Student, Renmin University, PR of China

Aiming to create a future where all roads lead to Beijing, China now plans to obtain a global role in politics by putting itself at the centre of global economic affairs through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which is the most ambitious geo-economic vision in recent history. The BRI and its goals, that have been given many different evaluations, has suggested cooperation in Central Asia, West Asia and Eastern Europe. To maintain a balanced security environment at the conjunction of Europe and Asia and to ensure a successful realization of the BRI, China will need a reliable strategic partner in the South Caucasus. This essay points out why Armenia is most likely to be the strategic ally China will need, drawing out the main perspectives and paradigms for more advanced Sino-Armenian relations. READ MORE

By Fuad Shahbazov, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

On March 4, Romania, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkmenistan held a ministerial meeting in Bucharest—the first such quadripartite gathering for these governments. During this meeting of their foreign ministers, the parties issued a joint statement reaffirming mutual respect for each other’s sovereignty, territorial integrity and inviolability of their internationally recognized borders. Additionally, a number of other important issues were raised in Bucharest, including a discussion on establishing a multimodal corridor for the transport of goods between the Black Sea and Caspian Sea basins, a project officially named the Caspian Sea–Black Sea International Transport Corridor (ITC-CSBS). READ MORE

By George Vlad Niculescu, Head of Research, the European Geopolitical Forum

On 11 April 2019, NATO confirmed US plans to deploy of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system to Romania. According to NATO officials, the United States will fulfil its commitment to NATO’s Ballistic Missile Defence by the temporary deployment of a THAAD system to Deveselu in Romania. The scheduled work is part of the United States European Phased Adaptive Approach to ballistic missile defence, which has been implemented since September 2009. In response, Russian Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Alexander Grushko said: “Russia is “closely following” the temporary deployment of a THAAD system to the Deveselu base in Romania.” READ MORE.

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

US President Donald J. Trump recent decision to withdraw American forces from Syria caught everyone by surprise: the Washington establishment, foreign policy pundits and everyone else who follow the Middle East Geopolitics. Given the top priority which President Trump has attached to the containment of Iran and curbing its activities in the Middle East, many believed that US presence in Syria should have been either expanded or at least stayed the same. READ MORE

By Fuad Shahbazov, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

On November 19, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev paid a long-awaited official visit to Belarus, where he met with his counterpart, President Alyaksandr Lukashenka. On this occasion, the Belarusian and Azerbaijani state news agencies praised the level of bilateral strategic cooperation, widely citing Lukashenka’s words to Aliyev: “Belarus has been waiting for you” (Belta, November 19). The Azerbaijani president’s trip to Minsk coincided with “growing frictions” between Belarus and Armenia, two formal allies within the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). READ MORE

By EGF Editorial Staff

Since the end of October 2018, a new operative communication line (crisis hotline) has been established between Armenia and Azerbaijan, two countries that have been at war over the status of Nagorno-Karabakh (NK), a region recognized as Azerbaijani by the International Community, but inhabited by a majority Armenian population. According to official sources from both sides, the level of military tension on the Line of Contact (LoC) between the conflicting parties has significantly decreased (from about 90 reports of ceasefire breaches/day, to about 20 reports/day). The opening of this new communication channel had been agreed several weeks before by the president of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, and the Prime-Minister of Armenia, Nikol Pashinyan, during an informal meeting held in the margins of the CIS summit in Dushanbe (Tajikistan) on 27-28 September 2018. READ MORE

By Fuad Shahbazov, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

Russian President Vladimir Putin paid a surprise official visit to Azerbaijan, on September 27. The formal reason for his arrival was to hold talks with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev as well as to jointly attend the Ninth Interregional Russia-Azerbaijan Forum. Local mass media in both Azerbaijan and Russia described Putin’s visit as a next significant step in improving the strategic partnership between the two countries. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

As experts and politicians all over the world seek to grasp the key contours of emerging world order, sometimes dubbed the Post-Post-Cold War Era, there are few things agreed upon by the vast majority of them. Only one issue is clear: US – China relations will define the course of the 21st century. Will the US be able to accommodate the rise of China, keeping its role as a top global power? Will China be ready to be a part of the Western-created world order? Or will it try to do that, simultaneously amending it to Beijing’s goal to establish China as a centered global order? READ MORE

By George Vlad Niculescu, Head of Research, the European Geopolitical Forum

When at the NATO summit in Brussels, on 25 May 2017, president Donald Trump didn’t say that one sentence committing America to continue standing by article 5 of the NATO Charter, he raised eyebrows across Europe. At that time, everyone remembered that candidate Donald Trump raised serious suspicions that his presidency might lead to the end of the West, as we knew it. Nevertheless, everyone who has ever believed in the strength of the Trans-Atlantic link and in the soft power of the Euro-Atlantic values secretly hoped that the end of Pax Americana in Europe wasn’t that close. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

The April – May 2018 “Velvet Revolution” in Armenia caught many by surprise. A few, if any, domestic or foreign experts anticipated such a quick removal from power of the long-term leader Serzh Sargsyan and the Republican Party. Many questions regarding the factors which facilitated the revolution remained unanswered. However, protest leader Nikol Pashinyan has been elected Prime Minister on May 8, and he will hold that position at least until the snap Parliamentary elections, either in November 2018 or in spring 2019. READ MORE

By George Vlad Niculescu, Head of Research, the European Geopolitical Forum

On 17 April 2018, Armenia’s National Assembly overwhelmingly voted to install Serzh Sargsyan -former president of the country- as prime minister. They unequivocally ignored the “voice of the street” calling for a change of face at the helm of this rather small, but ambitious post-Soviet state. This vote was supposed to conclude a power capture scheme started back in 2015.[…] Under pressure from independent civil society, then president Sargsyan had promised not to turn up as candidate for the prime-ministerial post. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

Since the Russia – Georgia war in 2008 one of the key geopolitical features of the post–Soviet space has been the Russian effort to reinstall its influence over former Soviet republics and diminish the role of the Euro-Atlantic community. The 2008 war, the 2014 Crimea crisis, and the ongoing conflict in Eastern Ukraine are examples of Russian use of hard power to pursue geopolitical interests in the region. However, one of the key tools in the Russian arsenal to regain its dominant position within the post–Soviet world is the effective use of propaganda and information campaigns against the Euro-Atlantic institutions. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

An "Eurasianist" ideology is helping to consolidate a Russia - Turkey strategic alliance, as a viable tool to achieve long term strategic interests in the Middle East and beyond.
The security architecture of the Middle East is in the midst of a tremendous transformation. Since the end of the First World War the region has been under Western domination of some form or another. In 1920s and 1930s it was wrapped within the mandate system imposed by the League of Nations, and since the end of the Second World War the US has been the regional kingmaker. The Soviet Union had some footholds such as Egypt during Nasser's rule, as well as Syria and parts of Yemen. READ MORE