By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

Since the launch of Chinese “One Belt, One Road (OBOR)” initiative in September 2013 later renamed as "Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)", the bulk of academic research has been devoted to the evaluation of the suggested land and maritime routes of this gigantic project. In recent years the main focus of the Western and especially American expert community was the link between BRI and Chinese foreign policy strategy with more emphasize of possible negative ramifications of the project for the states involved. The terms such as “debt diplomacy” or “debt trap” were disseminating more and more in both academic and political circles. READ MORE

By Eduard Abrahamyan, Wider Black Sea & Central Asia regional security analyst

On October 24-26, a U.S. State Department delegation headed by National Security Adviser Ambassador John Bolton visited the South Caucasian republics after talks in Moscow. The delegation’s visit to Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia was immediately dubbed a reinvigoration of U.S. policy towards the Caucasus and a pragmatic reengagement with the conflicted region. Bolton appeared to refine the evolving U.S. priorities with each country, categorizing them in accordance with political capabilities, shared interests and the roles that Georgia, Azerbaijan and Armenia respectively seek in relations with the West. The visit, however, caused an angry reaction from Moscow, especially given the issues Bolton raised in Yerevan. READ MORE

By Fuad Shahbazov, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

President Donald Trump’s announcement at the end of 2018 that he would withdraw U.S. troops from Syria came as a surprise to all parties involved, sparking particular concerns among America’s Syrian Kurdish allies. The move followed President Trump’s declaration of victory over ISIS after a four-year military campaign fighting alongside Syrian Kurdish forces. This sudden and unexpected decision has been widely criticized not only by allies but also inside the White House, with many analysts arguing that the U.S. withdrawal will expose the Syrian Kurds to an attack by Turkey READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

The United States' decision to unilaterally withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal and re-impose sanctions on Tehran has triggered a new crisis around Iran. The Trump administration states that it does not pursue the policy of “regime change” but rather wants to get a “change of behaviour” from Tehran. However, the key American demands – withdrawal of Iranian forces from Syria, the halt of Iranian missile program and significant reduction of Iranian involvement in Iraq and Yemen – are tantamount to the capitulation. It’s obvious that if any Iranian government agrees to capitulate – that would be the shortest and safest way to domestic political turmoil which may result in regime change. READ MORE

By EGF Editorial Staff

Since the end of October 2018, a new operative communication line (crisis hotline) has been established between Armenia and Azerbaijan, two countries that have been at war over the status of Nagorno-Karabakh (NK), a region recognized as Azerbaijani by the International Community, but inhabited by a majority Armenian population. According to official sources from both sides, the level of military tension on the Line of Contact (LoC) between the conflicting parties has significantly decreased (from about 90 reports of ceasefire breaches/day, to about 20 reports/day). The opening of this new communication channel had been agreed several weeks before by the president of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, and the Prime-Minister of Armenia, Nikol Pashinyan, during an informal meeting held in the margins of the CIS summit in Dushanbe (Tajikistan) on 27-28 September 2018. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

As experts and politicians all over the world seek to grasp the key contours of emerging world order, sometimes dubbed the Post-Post-Cold War Era, there are few things agreed upon by the vast majority of them. Only one issue is clear: US – China relations will define the course of the 21st century. Will the US be able to accommodate the rise of China, keeping its role as a top global power? Will China be ready to be a part of the Western-created world order? Or will it try to do that, simultaneously amending it to Beijing’s goal to establish China as a centered global order? READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

President Trump’s decision to pull out from the Iranian nuclear deal has significantly increased tensions in and around Iran. The return of “regime change” policy will have profound implications on Iran and the Middle East. The Iranian economy is in steep decline with the sharp devaluation of the Iranian Rial and large-scale protest rallies in different regions. The rising prices of consumer products, shortages of water and problems related with mismanagement are fuelling the protests. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

Turkey's strategic alliance with Azerbaijan, trilateral co-operation including Georgia and its efforts to transform itself into a regional energy hub will continue to be the main features of the Erdogan government policy in the South Caucasus.
24 June 2018 was a big day for Turkish domestic politics. Turkey elected both the President and the Parliament. Given the sweeping constitutional changes approved in the April 2017 referendum, the new President has become an almighty figure in Turkey. Despite various assessments envisaging hard times for the incumbent Turkish President, Erdogan managed to win the race without entering into a possibly dangerous run-off. READ MORE

By George Vlad Niculescu, Head of Research, the European Geopolitical Forum

When at the NATO summit in Brussels, on 25 May 2017, president Donald Trump didn’t say that one sentence committing America to continue standing by article 5 of the NATO Charter, he raised eyebrows across Europe. At that time, everyone remembered that candidate Donald Trump raised serious suspicions that his presidency might lead to the end of the West, as we knew it. Nevertheless, everyone who has ever believed in the strength of the Trans-Atlantic link and in the soft power of the Euro-Atlantic values secretly hoped that the end of Pax Americana in Europe wasn’t that close. READ MORE

By Nana Gegelashvili, EGF Affiliated Expert

On April 23, Armenian Prime Minister Serzh Sargsyan resigned in response to mass protests. On March 2, 2018, the presidential elections took place in Armenia. According to the amendments to the Armenian Constitution adopted at the December 6, 2015 referendum, initiated by the ruling Republican Party, the president becomes a symbolic figure, while the real power goes to the prime minister. However, despite Serzh Sargsyan’s assurances that he was not going to occupy the chair of the prime minister, the majority of voters in Armenia were confident that it was the incumbent president who would become the next prime minister, which would allow him thus to retain all the power in his hands. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

Since the Russia – Georgia war in 2008 one of the key geopolitical features of the post–Soviet space has been the Russian effort to reinstall its influence over former Soviet republics and diminish the role of the Euro-Atlantic community. The 2008 war, the 2014 Crimea crisis, and the ongoing conflict in Eastern Ukraine are examples of Russian use of hard power to pursue geopolitical interests in the region. However, one of the key tools in the Russian arsenal to regain its dominant position within the post–Soviet world is the effective use of propaganda and information campaigns against the Euro-Atlantic institutions. READ MORE

By Elkhan Nuriyev, BREC Global Energy Associate, EGF Affiliated Expert

The world’s future is currently endangered by numerous fundamental threats, yet Western democracies fear only one – Vladimir Putin. On all geopolitical fronts of the emerging multipolar world the Russian President has smartly backlashed against all collective challenges mounted by the West. Small wonder the West’s incessant fear of Russia’s military power has made Putin the world’s most powerful man. What is currently happening in West-Russia relations is not a new Cold War; it is not even a renewed East-West divide. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

An "Eurasianist" ideology is helping to consolidate a Russia - Turkey strategic alliance, as a viable tool to achieve long term strategic interests in the Middle East and beyond.
The security architecture of the Middle East is in the midst of a tremendous transformation. Since the end of the First World War the region has been under Western domination of some form or another. In 1920s and 1930s it was wrapped within the mandate system imposed by the League of Nations, and since the end of the Second World War the US has been the regional kingmaker. The Soviet Union had some footholds such as Egypt during Nasser's rule, as well as Syria and parts of Yemen. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

Since gaining independence in 1991 Armenia – Georgia relations have been characterized as friendly and mutually beneficial. Georgia is one of only two routes connecting Armenia to the world and Armenia serves as a land bridge for Georgia to Iran. The mainly positive historical memories also play a role in fomenting friendly images within both societies. […] Yet, there is a lack of clear articulation of the strategic rationale behind those bilateral relations. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

In recent months Iran has been facing both internal and external challenges. The wave of demonstrations shook up the Islamic Republic in late December – early January 2017-2018. The expert community still has contradicting views for the main reasons of the protest movement: internal struggle between conservatives and reformists, outside meddling with main arrows targeting the US, Israel and Saudi Arabia as potential sponsors, spontaneous movement based on economic hardships and rampant corruption. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

Since 2014, the containment of Russia has been one of the most popular topics within the expert community dealing with Geopolitics and Geostrategy. This term has been actively used by the Western political circles, including high level state officials and senior leaders of NATO. The Russian officials also use this term to describe Western, and, in particular, US policy towards Moscow. However, despite emphasizing the necessity to contain Russia in the post-Soviet space, including in the South Caucasus, little if anything is being done to change the geopolitical status quo. READ MORE

By Mehmood-Ul-Hassan Khan, EGF Associated Expert on South Asian geopolitics,
The view from Lahore, Pakistan

Turkmenistan and Pakistan traditionally enjoy close, cordial relations marked by trust and understanding. Bilateral collaboration is growing steadily in a number of sectors. Indeed, on January 15-16, 2018 one of Turkmenistan's most prominent political figures, Rashid Meredov, conducted an official visit to Pakistan. READ MORE

by George Vlad Niculescu, Head of Research, the European Geopolitical Forum

Over the last few years, the confrontation between Russia and the West has made the headlines of plenty of academic and media analysis. Not surprisingly, the countries in-between located at the epi-center of this confrontation have been struggling to re-balance their positions against Washington, Brussels, and Moscow. What scenarios would most accurately outline the future of this confrontation in the geopolitical area between the Baltic Sea and the Wider Black Sea? READ MORE

By Stepan Grigoryan, Head, Ana­lyt­i­cal Centre for Glob­al­i­sa­tion and Regional Coop­er­a­tion, Armenia

The statement from the President of Armenia in September 2013 sounded like a bolt from the blue. He would not sign the Asso­ci­a­tion Agreement with the European Union at the planned November Eastern Part­ner­ship Summit in Vilnius, he said. Instead, Armenia would be joining the Russian led Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). This signified Armenia's departure from a multi-vector foreign policy. READ MORE

By By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

Russian understanding of geopolitics believes in the decisive role of hard power and military might as a key component of both domestic and foreign policy. Russian-led integration projects, aim to include as many post-soviet states as possible, and once in never let them go out.
In recent years one of the main issues in post-Soviet geopolitics is the competition between Russian and EU promoted integration projects. The Eastern Partnership promoted by the EU offers closer ties with Europe through Association Agreements and the establishment of Free Trade Areas, though with no guarantees of membership into the EU. The Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union promotes integration between former Soviet Union states. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

Armenia, the European Union and Russia had more to gain than lose from the signing of the new Armenia - EU enhanced co-operation agreement. Paradoxically Armenia's membership of the EAEU was transformed from a liability into an asset during Yerevan's second attempt at negotiations with the EU.
On November 24, 2017 Armenia and EU signed a Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement (CEPA) during the Eastern Partnership Brussels summit. The negotiations were launched in December 2015, and the agreement was initialled in March 2017. This was the second attempt to sign a new agreement between Armenia and EU. In 2010 – 2013, negotiations were held to elaborate an Association Agreement (AA), including the establishment of the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

Georgia and Armenia need to develop a strategic relationship in order to see off a number of geo-political challenges.
Armenia and Georgia are both facing tough foreign policy challenges. Armenia has to deal with constant, joint, Azerbaijani-Turkish pressure over the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Another hard task is the effort to develop relations with the Euro-Atlantic institutions, whilst simultaneously not jeopardizing strategic relations with Russia. The alliance with Moscow is itself a challenge given Armenia's overdependence on Russia, and Russia's growing cooperation with Turkey and Azerbaijan. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

All three internationally recognized republics of the South Caucasus – Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia - are facing hard challenges in pursuing their foreign policies. They have to take into account contradicting/coinciding interests of regional and global actors involved in the region. The main purpose of this article is to analyze the main challenges and opportunities of Armenian, Georgian and Azerbaijani foreign policies with a focus on their interactions with Russia and the West. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia
A raft of issues are complicating relations between long-time allies Turkey and the United States. But both sides continue using diplomatic back-channels to get as many concessions as possible from each other without fatally harming bilateral relations.
US - Turkey relations are probably at their lowest point since the start of the Cold War in late 1940s. Turkey, as a NATO member, played a key role in fortifying the alliance's southern flank against the Soviet threat. The collapse of the Soviet Union created new geo-strategic conditions, and both the US and Turkey were in quest of new rationales for fostering their relationship. In the 1990s, Turkey was perceived in the US as a potential model on how to develop democratic institutions in newly independent republics with Muslim majority populations from the Caucasus and Central Asia. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

The 25 September referendum in the Kurdish region may not lead to Kurdish independence any time soon, but neighbouring countries are apprehensive.
On September 25, 2017 the long-anticipated independence referendum took place in the region administered by the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), and other mainly Kurdish populated disputed areas of Iraq. Those areas are outside of KRG administered boundaries defined by the Iraqi constitution, but currently are under control of Kurdish Peshmerga fighters. According to preliminary official results voting turnout was 72 percent and approximately 93 percent of participants voted for independence. READ MORE