By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

The Azerbaijani military incursion into Armenian territory may have significant geopolitical implications. The muted reaction of the CSTO and Russia triggered another wave of anti-Russian sentiments in Armenia.
On 12 May 2021, news coming from the Syunik region shocked Armenian society. Several hundred Azerbaijani soldiers had crossed the Armenian border and penetrated up to 3.5 km into Armenian territory near the "Black Lake". The Armenian government did not confirm this immediately, however, late in the evening on the same day, Armenia’s Security Council convened in an extraordinary session, and the prime minister declared that Azerbaijani Armed forces had entered Armenian territory. READ MORE

By Fuad Shahbazov, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

As part of the 10 November ceasefire agreement that ended last year's 44-day war, a contingent of Russian soldiers was deployed to Karabakh as peacekeepers. However, the lack of a formally agreed mandate and perceptions of Russian overstepping has led to growing tensions between Baku and Moscow.
The second Karabakh war ended with the signing of a Russia-brokered ceasefire agreement and the deployment of Russian peacekeeping forces with the aim of preventing further hostilities and ensuring stability in the region. However, the ceasefire arrangements between Azerbaijan–Armenia on one side and Russia–Turkey on the other has left more questions than answers. The fact that there is still no formally agreed mandate for the Russian forces operating on the ground causes outrage in Azerbaijan as local authorities loudly criticise Moscow for provocative actions. READ MORE

By Lieutenant-General (Ret.) Hayk S. Kotanjian, PhD, Professor Strategic Security Studies

Reflecting on the lessons of the military aggression of Turkey and Azerbaijan against the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic and the Republic of Armenia, strategic analysts of the security institutions and processes continue to monitor the dynamics of the peace-war around Karabakh in the context of the world order transformation. Russian President Vladimir Putin at the session of the Russian Security Council of March 26, 2021, emphasizing the exceptional role of cybersecurity, pointed out the strategic priority of the development of the cyberspace resources management system. In general, this coincides with the assessments of the special significance of this security sector, voiced recently by the US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping. READ MORE

By Anna Ohanyan, PhD, non-resident senior scholar in the Russia and Eurasia Program of Carnegie

Europe has a role to play in rebuilding the South Caucasus and promoting a sustainable future. One important dividend would be democracy promotion in the region. A Russian-enforced peace could be remarkably conducive to that end.
Since the Soviet collapse, Europe and Russia have remained unable to construct a common framework for security cooperation. The Kremlin has consistently pushed for grand security bargains to assert its privileged spheres of influence over swathes of the Eurasian landmass. In contrast, Europe’s normative preferences for a market economy and liberal democracy have favoured a very different approach, one based on rules and rights, in order to advance security and order in the emergent post-Soviet space. READ MORE

Embassy of the Republic of Uzbekistan in the Kingdom of Belgium

On June 22, 2020, the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, signed a Decree on Approval of the National Strategy of the Republic of Uzbekistan on Human Rights. Much has been said about Uzbekistan’s efforts to reform and modernize multiple aspects of society and economy since Mirziyoyev became president in 2016. Human rights are a core area of national reform, in this respect. It should be noted from the outset that discussions around this subject in Uzbekistan during the early years of the country’s independence have not always focused on the most celebrated factors. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

Still recovering from the war, it is not yet clear what Armenia's strategy is for Nagorno Karabakh. Without a coherent and consistent policy from the Armenian government, Armenia may lose what it retains of the enclave.
Almost four and half months after the end of the 2020 Karabakh war, Armenia has not yet recovered. Society is grappling with lingering questions about the reasons for the staggering defeat. The fate of the remaining Armenian prisoners of war in Azerbaijan, whose POW status Azerbaijan refuses to accept, is a top priority. The ongoing de facto border demarcation process in the Syunik region, and looming demarcations in other regions, have put additional stress on society. The current political crisis and upcoming June 20, 2021, snap parliamentary elections do not help restore stability. Different political forces actively discuss possible changes in the electoral code, and even the possibility of making some amendments to the Constitution before the elections. However, apart from the daily ups and downs of politics, Armenia faces a bigger task: that of clarifying its stance on fundamental issues regarding the new status quo in Nagorno-Karabakh. READ MORE

By Fuad Shahbazov, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

Azerbaijan and Armenia have been locked in fierce fighting in Karabakh since September 27. Unlike in most previous clashes over this Armenian-occupied Azerbaijani territory, the present conflict has involved heavy and sophisticated weaponry wielded by both sides, but especially Azerbaijan’s Armed Forces. And while the ongoing violence is essentially a conventional war fought by two professional armies, the presence of new generation, hi-tech weaponry has sharply increased its destructive potential. READ MORE

By Elkhan Nuriyev, PhD, Eastern Europe-Global Area (EEGA) fellow at Leipzig University

The ongoing escalation of Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh is a most serious and significant one - just not surprising at all. This is mainly due to the lack of tangible progress in the OSCE Minsk Group-led peace talks between the two sides, which have been held since 1994. The absence of substantive negotiations over de-occupation of Azerbaijani territories, return of internally-displaced persons to the regions of their origin, the unblocking of transport, economic and other communications with Armenia has fueled strong skepticism about peaceful conflict resolution. Back in the summer it was evident that the smell of a new war had already hung heavily over the conflict-torn area. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

The new war against the unrecognized Nagorno Karabakh Republic launched by Azerbaijan on September 27, 2020, has intensified discussions among the experts on the role of the external actors in the region. Significant attention was focused on the newly gained influence of Turkey as a supporter of Azerbaijan. However, as for now, the key player in the Karabakh conflict remains Russia, and most probably, this balance will not be changed at least in the short term perspective. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

On September 27, 2020, Azerbaijan launched a large-scale attack along the whole line of contact with the Nagorno Karabakh Republic. This was the third flare-up in Karabakh conflict in recent four years. In April 2016, Azerbaijan again launched an attack on Karabakh, however, hostilities were stopped after four days as a result of active Russian mediation efforts without any significant changes on the ground. In July 2020, clashes broke out along the northern part of Armenia – Azerbaijan international border. However, the September 2020 attack has few in common with both April 2016 four day war and July 2020 border skirmishes. READ MORE

By Khayal Iskandarov Ibrahim, PhD, and Associate Professor Sadi Sadiyev Saleh, War College of the Armed Forces, Republic of Azerbaijan

In July 2020, the most recent escalation on the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan brought the so-called “frozen” Nagorno-Karabakh conflict to the spotlight again. However, this time the skirmish occurred not in Nagorno-Karabakh, the occupied territory of Azerbaijan, but in another area, which is an official border far away from Nagorno-Karabakh. The first question which comes to mind is: Why Tovuz, and not Nagorno-Karabakh? READ MORE.

By Fuad Shahbazov, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

On July 12, the Azerbaijani border region of Tovuz and the Tavush region on the Armenian side became the new epicentre of clashes between the armed forces of the two states, with the involvement of heavy artillery and unmanned aerial drones. The intensive exchanges of fire resulted in the deaths of over a dozen military personnel and the destruction of local infrastructure on both sides. On July 14, Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Defense notably confirmed the deaths of Major General Polad Hashimov and Colonel Ilgar Mirzayev as a result of artillery shelling by Armenian military units. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

A managed process of co-operation and competition continues to characterise Turkish-Russian relations, and in the future this may also extend to the South Caucasus.
Russia-Turkey relations have experienced significant ups and downs in recent years: The warming of relations at the beginning of the 2010s; the crisis after the November 2015 shooting of a Russian military jet; the new phase of partnership from late 2016 to 2019; the new crisis as a result of direct military clashes in Syrian Idlib in January-February 2020 and Turkish support of the Government of National Accord in Libya; and another phase of normalisation after the March 5 agreement on Idlib was reached by the two presidents. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

On July 12, Azerbaijani forces attempted to take over an Armenian post along the Northern part of the Armenia–Azerbaijan international border. Repelled by the Armenian units, they turned to cannon shelling and the extensive use of UAVs. After two days of active clashes, the situation was calm on July 15, when new, albeit unsuccessful, attempts to seize Armenian positions were made on early morning of July 16. While five days of hostilities did not bring significant changes on the ground, it might be useful to understand the key reasons behind these recent military activities, as well as to assess possible scenarios for the future. READ MORE

By Fuad Shahbazov, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

On March 1, 2020, India outperformed Russia and Poland in a US$ 40 million defense deal with Armenia to supply it with four domestically made SWATHI counter-battery radars. The system is developed by India’s Defence Research and Development Organization (DRDO) and manufactured by Bharat Electronics Limited (BEL). It provides accurate information on enemy artillery firing positions weapons up to 75 kilometers away. The decision came amid India’s growing efforts to boost its national “Make in India” brand in the defense industry sector, which could make new inroads into European, Middle Eastern and Asian defense markets. However, the new Indian – Armenian defense deal could undermine Delhi’s relations with Russia on the one hand, and Azerbaijan, Turkey and Pakistan on the other. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

Despite the COVID-19 outbreak, Russia has made recently fresh efforts to push forward the phased approach solution in Nagorno Karabakh. This solution is based on the so-called “Madrid principles and six basic elements” first publicized by the Russian, US, and French Presidents’ July 2009 statement. However, the phased approach solution traces back to late 1997 when apparent push by OSCE Co-Chair states to reach an agreement resulted in the resignation of the first President of Armenia. After 6 years break, this logic again appeared to have dominated the settlement process since 2004. Six elements envisage the withdrawal of Nagorno Karabakh Republic’s forces from more than 50 percent of its territory, deployment of peacekeeping forces, and the final determination of Karabakh status by legally binding expression of will. READ MORE

By Eugene Kogan, Tbilisi-based defence and security expert

The trilateral military cooperation, begun in November 2017, has all the necessary components to become decisive for the three countries in the eastern Mediterranean in the long-term. In addition, the US is fully behind the three countries, sending a clear signal to Ankara not to provoke conflict in the region.
Turkey, which is still a member of NATO, is not in a position to prevent Israel from cooperating with NATO, although such cooperation is a thorn in the side of Turkey. Although Cypriot military exercises with Israel upset Turkey, it cannot prevent the two countries from cooperating. That is why we see a new military architecture in the Eastern Mediterranean, which will shape the security relations of the three countries in the coming years. READ MORE

By Elkhan Nuriyev, Humboldt Senior Fellow, Centre for East European and International Studies

Almost three decades on from the fall of communism, the European Union’s Eastern neighborhood remains embroiled in protracted conflicts that have hampered regional integration, bred mistrust, and encouraged wasteful military spending. This is mainly because the leaders of the Eastern Partnership countries—Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine—lack flexible reconciliation strategies that may help build peace and foster political stability and economic prosperity.
Complex lingering conflicts have made the European Union’s Eastern partners the objects of a damaging geopolitical tussle between Russia and the EU. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

The April 21, 2020 statements of Russian foreign Minister Lavrov brought back Nagorno Karabakh issue to the forefront of expert discussions. However, Russian foreign minister did not reveal something special or unexpected. He just reiterated what pundits following the conflict settlement process had already known. Since May 2018 negotiations have been based on a phased approach. It envisaged the return of some territories to Azerbaijan and indefinite postponement of the determination of the Nagorno Karabakh final status. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

Despite the worldwide standstill brought by the COVID–19 pandemic, conflict resolutions remain among the key priorities of the international community. This is true for the Nagorno Karabakh conflict too. Without going deep into history it’s worthy to recall the key milestones of the conflict. The Nagorno Karabakh Autonomous Region declared its intention to leave Soviet Azerbaijan and join Soviet Armenia in February 1988. In the final days of the Soviet Union, Nagorno Karabakh organized a referendum and declared its independence. Almost immediately Azerbaijan launched a military attack against Nagorno Karabakh seeking to crash the newly established republic. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

As the world mobilizes to combat the COVID - 19 it sometimes appears that the pandemic has stopped geopolitics. Many urgent topics of international relations have been put aside. However, sooner or later the world will return to normality, and the old problems will re-emerge. Coronavirus has not decreased US - China rivalry, to the contrary the Post COVID-19 world will likely be characterized by a growing confrontation between China and the US. Among the problems waiting their turn to re-emerge in the geopolitical landscape in the post-Soviet space is the Nagorno Karabakh conflict. READ MORE

By Eugene Kogan, Tbilisi-based defence and security expert

Turkey-NATO relations have a history of challenges more or less since Turkey’s accession to NATO in 1952. Strained relations between Turkey and NATO have begun long before Turkey’s alleged failed coup attempt on 15 July 2016. However, the failed coup attempt increased tensions further and it is fair to assume that these tense relations are likely to continue. At the same time, Turkey-NATO relations are constrained by a not yet amended North Atlantic Treaty of 4 April 1949. As long as the treaty remains not updated very little can be done to change the nature of Turkey-NATO relations. READ MORE.

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

The United Kingdom (UK) is leaving the European Union (EU) on January 31, 2020. This move will not only have tremendous geostrategic implications for the UK and EU but possibly may influence the transformation of the Post-Cold War order. First of all, for the first time in at least the recent 400 hundred years, the UK is abandoning its status of the "first-tier country" and most probably, will never return to the elite club. Without the UK, the struggle between continental Europe and the Ocean powers (US and UK), may reemerge again. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies, Yerevan

Since the start of the negotiations for the peaceful settlement of the Karabakh conflict all options suggested by the mediators have envisaged the return of some territories under the control of Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijan. Meanwhile, till now, Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh have managed to avoid such a scenario. However, this didn’t always happen for reasons under Armenian leaders’ control. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

On December 4, 2019, Armenian and Azerbaijani foreign ministers held their last meeting for this year on the margins of the OSCE Ministerial Conference in Bratislava. According to Armenian and Azerbaijani sources, the current stage of negotiations, the necessity of ceasefire consolidation and the implementation of confidence-building measures were among the key topics of discussion. The Foreign Minister of Armenia highlighted the modest achievement reached within the framework of the agreement on preparing the populations for peace, through the implementation of an exchange program for media representatives from Armenia, Artsakh and Azerbaijan. READ MORE