By Major-General, Doctor of Political Science, Hayk Kotanjian
Guest contributor to EGF

On October 10 2013, within the framework of the Kyrgyz Republic’s chairmanship in the CSTO, an academic-practical conference “Afghanistan 2014: Prospects of the situation in the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, challenges and threats to security in Central Asia in the context of the withdrawal of main contingents of the International security assistance force" took place in Bishkek. Experts from 27 countries, as well as from the CSTO, NATO, the UN, the OSCE, the EU, the SCO, the ICRC and other international organizations attended the conference. READ MORE

By Valentin Stoyanov
EGF Affiliated Expert
Gazprom’s South Stream gas pipeline project has been highly visible in the European media in recent months and appears to be going from strength to strength. The project seems to have high level political support and there is much speculation that actual construction is imminent, particularly in Serbia and Bulgaria. There are also rumors that the Russian company, Stroytransgaz, has signed “construction contracts” and is ready to commence operations. Further, in December 2012 there was even a symbolic first welding of pipes in the Russian coastal town of Anapa. For better or for worse, and taking into account the wider energy security debate between the EU and Russia, all of these developments appear to reflect “evidence” that the South Stream project is just about upon us. READ MORE

by Professor Natasha Udensiva
The U.S. shale gas revolution is spreading: more and more countries are talking about developing their own shale gas resources. How is this relevant for Gazprom? It is relevant because, with more countries developing their natural gas resources, Gazprom’s once-powerful monopoly may soon lose its hold on the European market. So far, the company’s strategy has relied on the exclusiveness of its vast resources. But shale development is undermining this very quickly. Soon, access to technology will trump resource access. Then, Gazprom’s only chance of reasserting its presence will be to lower its prices. READ MORE

Interactive discussion hosted by the European Geopolitical Forum

On 18 June 2013, the European Geopolitical Forum (EGF) hosted an interactive discussion on “Conflict Management, Regionalism and Economic Integration in the South Caucasus: Does a light at the End of the Tunnel Exist?” in the hospitable premises of TUSIAD, Brussels. The debate was introduced and moderated by Dr. Marat Terterov, Executive Director, European Geopolitical Forum. It was attended by around 25 policy makers and experts from relevant Brussels-based international organizations (including NATO, the European Union, and the Energy Charter), NGOs, think tanks and embassies. READ MORE

By Igor Alexeev
Russian journalist and blogger for Strategic Culture Foundation and Route Magazine. He writes on the oil and gas sector, Eurasian energy security and shipping industries in the Arctic.

European countries, including the Netherlands, Finland and the United Kingdom expressed their interest in the expansion of Nord Stream. The third and fourth strings of the pipeline enjoy the highest level of political support in Europe. As a result Nord Stream will be the cornerstone of European energy security in the decades to come.
Nord Stream Fact Sheet

• Nord Stream is a twin pipeline system through the Baltic Sea transporting natural gas from Russia to Europe;
• It runs across the Baltic Sea waters from the Portovaya Bay (near Vyborg) to the German coast (near Greifswald) stretching over 1224 kilometers;
• The third and fourth lines are planned for annual capacities of 27.5 billion cubic meters each;
• The stakes in Nord Stream AG are distributed as follows: Gazprom holds 51%, Wintershall Holding and E.ON Ruhrgas – 15.5% each, Gasunie and GDF Suez – 9% each;
• Nord Stream will export gas from the Yuzhno-Russkoye oil and gas field, the Yamal Peninsula, Ob and Taz Bays and in perspective Shtokman field;
• The cost of construction of the first two sections was $7.4 billion.

7th Workshop of the PfP Consortium Study Group “Regional Stability in the South Caucasus”

On 14-16 March 2013, George Niculescu, our Head of Research, attended the 7th Workshop of the PfP Consortium Study Group “Regional Stability in the South Caucasus”, held in Tbilisi (Georgia). Mr Niculescu briefed a distinguished audience consisting of government officials, representatives of the EU and NATO, as well as of experts from regional and international think tanks and civil society on the EGF research paper on "A Pragmatic Review of Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict Resolution: Could Economic Incentives Help Break the Current Stalemate?", published last October jointly with Dr. Marat Terterov. Mr Niculescu thus concluded that “the exit from the current stalemate in the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict would require starting up discussion around economic issues, and that the next step to this end might aim at setting up a comprehensive dialogue among interested businesses and experts from the conflicting parties together with international actors on post-conflict scenarios involving joint regional energy and infrastructure projects.” To see the Policy Recommendations issued in the aftermath of this workshop please click here. To look at the full text of the briefing please click here, and click here for the Powerpoint presentation.”

By Claudia Nocente,
Research Associate Global Security
February 2013

Key points:

• Egypt’s new administration between international praise and domestic unrest
• Morsi assumes pharaonic powers in an attempt to rid Egypt of Mubarak judges
• The felool take another shot in Egyptian politics
• The generals remain silent
• The Egyptian economy sinks. READ MORE

Dr. Andrej Kreutz
EGF adviser on trans-Atlantic security

When discussing the place in the international system and the foreign policy of any major country, one needs to take into account its historical background and transformations of its image in the eyes of the world. Because of the special and rather unusual features of both Russia’s geopolitics and history, the need to do that seems even more necessary. Click here to read more.