By Igor Alexeev
Russian journalist and blogger for Strategic Culture Foundation and Route Magazine. He writes on the oil and gas sector, Eurasian energy security and shipping industries in the Arctic.

South Stream is an ambitious endeavor of Russia’s energy giant Gazprom to get direct access to the EU energy market. It is portrayed and criticized by some politicians in Europe as a “dangerous” gateway to a broader economic relationship with Moscow. Remarkably enough, Bulgaria, Serbia, Croatia, Slovenia and Hungary have one-by-one opted for the project.
The South Stream Fact Sheet

• Gas pipeline will be 1455 km long in Southern and Central Europe;
• 8500 people will be employed in its construction, with 770 at the operational level;
• Eight compression stations are to be set up in the main transit countries;
• The South Stream planned transport capacity may reach 63 billion cubic meters;
• The overall cost of the project is approximately $39 billion.

By George Niculescu,
Head of Research, The European Geopolitical Forum

Introduction
Since the end of the Cold War, the future of NATO has been a topic for debate among politicians, bureaucrats, scholars and journalists familiar with the European and global security issues. NATO’s future role within the newly evolving global security structure has been a particularly relevant topic for such debates. The North Atlantic Alliance has so far proven itself to be a flexible enough entity in relation to adapting itself to post-Cold War security realities in order to survive the bygone era of the 20th Century. Both political and military leaders of the Alliance have understood the key lesson learned from the fall in relevance of the Warsaw Pact after the collapse of the communism in Central-Eastern Europe: the continuous adaptation of NATO to the new security challenges is the only viable alternative to the Alliance’s disappearance from the geostrategic map. READ MORE

By Anna Ohanyan,
EGF Affiliated Expert on South Caucasus region building

There is much enthusiasm among researchers and policymakers alike concerning the pacifying effects of trade and broader interdependence among states. The European Union is an often cited example of greater regional integration as a way to enhance peace and security among neighboring states. This comparative regional study draws from the cases of the Balkans and South Caucasus in order (1) to offer a descriptive account of patterns and processes of regionalism in politically divided conflict areas, and (2) to examine the extent to which such regional engagement can positively affect ongoing conflict management efforts in a given conflict region. The study advocates promoting regional structures as a new and potentially effective approach to peace-building and security enhancement, toward managing the many 'frozen conflicts' both in the Balkans as well as in the South Caucasus. READ MORE

Paul Pryce
EGF Affiliated Expert on Conflict Management and the OSCE Institutions

On November 21st, 2012, a surprising announcement was made in Vienna. Mongolia had acceded as the 57th participating State of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), the world’s largest regional security organization. Mongolia has effectively been an observer state since 2004, involved in the OSCE’s Asian Partners for Cooperation together with Japan, South Korea, Thailand, and Afghanistan. Contributing to the surprise of the announcement, the country’s bid for full participation in the work of the OSCE had only come in late October 2011, when the Lithuanian Chairmanship received a formal letter from the Mongolian government stating their willingness to comply fully with the terms of the Helsinki Final Act, the Charter of Paris for a New Europe, and other documents integral to the OSCE. Click here to read more.

Djallil Lounnas,
EGF Affiliated Expert with focus on Insurgency and Trans-national radicalism in North Africa and Sahel-Sahara

This article analyses, the complex relationship between Tehran, Beijing and Washington on the Iranian nuclear issue. Indeed, China’ policy towards Iran has often been described as ambiguous, in supporting Washington, on the one hand, while protecting Tehran, on the other hand. In this article, we argue that, in fact, Beijing policy vis-a-vis Tehran depends on the state of its relationships with Washington. Indeed, a closer analysis shows that China is using Iran as a bargaining chip with the United States on, among others, two key security issues, i.e., Taiwan and the oil supply. The guarantee of a secured oil supply from the Middle-East in addition to a comprehensive policy of the US with regard to Chinese security interests in Taiwan as well as the use of smart sanctions against Tehran, which would thus take into account, to a certain extent, Beijing economic interests in Iran, are, indeed, the guarantee of Beijing’ support to the US policy towards Iran. Click here to read more.

Martin Vladimirov,
Expert on Balkan-Black Sea External Relations and Energy Security

It has been two decades now since the southern energy corridor, linking the energy producing Caspian and Middle East regions with European consumers, was incepted. The 1990s proved to be very successful after the U.S. was able to fill in the geopolitical vacuum in the Wider Black Sea region and divert significant amounts of Caspian oil and gas away from Russia and in direction Europe. Yet the strong push for diversification of the European energy supply came to a sudden halt after 9/11. The U.S. changed its geopolitical priorities focusing on the destabilized Middle East and South Asia. Since then the EU has been painfully searching for alternatives in accessing the vast Caspian reserves. The Nabucco gas pipeline, which has been seen as the strategic continuation of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) corridor, has remained only a distant dream as gas quantities available are simply not enough to fill the 31 billion cubic meters (bcm) pipeline capacity. READ MORE

Political Outlook for Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya and Egypt

Key points:

• Morocco’s monarchy seems to have survived the wind of change blowing on Arab countries last year and is currently trying to hold on to its power by allowing reforms that partly reduce its absolute authority.
• The adoption of a new constitution and the victory of moderate and nationalist Islamic parties are signs that mark Morocco’s gradual progress towards the demands of protesters who have taken the streets last year.
• However, civil society is not yet a primary actor in Moroccan politics and a widespread sense of communalism is still missing.
• Tensions are still present in Morocco, due to the unresponsiveness of the central government regarding the high levels of unemployment, structural corruption and deficiencies in welfare and health systems.
• Morocco has been praised by the international community for its counter-terrorism efforts, although major security risks stem from the unresolved situation of West Sahara. High unemployment and persisting poverty, however, continue to ensure fertile grounds for terrorist recruiters.
• New economic deals with the EU are expected to have a positive impact on the Moroccan economy, which is of great interest for foreign direct investors.
READ MORE

Mikhail Roshchin

Former United Nations Secretary General Kofi Annan appears to have made some diplomatic strides in efforts to mediate the violent uprising in Syria. And Annan’s mission also has gained Russian support, which is a crucial key to an international consensus on how best to resolve the Syrian conflict. We are joined on the line with Mikhail Roshchin, a Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of Oriental Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences. READ MORE