Russian Gas Supplies to Europe: the Likelihood, and Potential Impact, of an Interruption in Gas Transit via Ukraine[Over]
Jack Sharples, EGF Associate Researcher and Andrew Judge, EGF Guest Contributor
The current tensions in Ukraine have generated speculation about the security of Russian gas supplies to the EU via Ukraine. This short article analyses the likelihood of a suspension of Russian gas supplies via Ukraine and the impact of such a suspension on EU gas imports. We find that a suspension of gas transit is far from inevitable, but cannot be ruled out. The impact of such a suspension would disproportionately affect Central and South-East Europe, with this region divided between those that have access to gas storage and/or alternative supplies, and those that do not. In this regard, Bulgaria remains the only EU member state in this region that has neither sufficient gas storage nor access to alternative supplies. READ MORE
- Monday, 24 March 2014, 19:30
After the Vilnius Summit: EU’s Eastern Partnership at Crossroads[Over]
George Vlad Niculescu,
Head of Research, The European Geopolitical Forum
The Eastern Partnership Summit, held on 28-29 November 2013 in Vilnius, was supposed to highlight the progress achieved over the last four years by the EU on political association and economic integration with its eastern neighbours (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Republic of Moldova and Ukraine). Although it resulted in initialling the Association Agreements of Georgia and Moldova, and in signing a few minor agreements with other eastern partners, the summit was hijacked by the growing geopolitical competition between the EU and Russia. The primary victims of this competition have been Armenia and Ukraine, who, under strong pressure from Russia, put off their plans to sign Association and Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area agreements with the EU. Other eastern partners have also felt the cold wind blowing across Europe within their economic, energy or security relations with Russia. READ MORE
- Friday, 17 January 2014, 08:00
Energy needs to give Bulgaria regional advantage[Over]
Valentin Stoyanov
EGF Affiliated Expert
Bulgaria fails to bring in the ‘big energy projects’
Over the past two decades Bulgaria has had no success with the so called ‘big energy projects’. The recent failure of NABUCCO was also a failure of the country’s efforts to diversify its gas supplies. The prospects for shale gas exploration and production look similarly grim after a moratorium was imposed by the Parliament in the beginning of 2012. READ MORE
- Friday, 17 January 2014, 07:59
Energy Relations between Gas-Troika Members and the European Union[Over]
Fatemeh Shayan, University of Eshfahan, Iran
University of Tampere, Finland
Guest contributor to EGF
Do such organisations exist beyond the ‘self fulfilling prophecy’ level?
Much research has examined energy relations between the European Union (EU) and Russia,[1] but not the larger picture of energy relations between the EU and the Gas-Troika, made up of members Russia, Iran and Qatar. Although the Gas-Troika is in an early stage of development, increasing demand for gas, especially from the EU, has noticed members to attempt to present it as a future gas superpower. READ MORE
- Friday, 17 January 2014, 07:57
A Russian-American-Syrian Triangle: The Syrian Chemical Weapons and American-Russian Relations[Over]
By Professor Andrei Kreutz,
EGF Adviser on Trans-Atlantic Security
During the last few weeks, the Syrian-American-Russian triangle directly or indirectly involving all Syria’s neighbors and a number of other nations, has become one of the major focuses of the political commentaries. The Russian initiative to help disarm Syria from its chemical weapons and Putin’s article which was published in the New York Times on September 11, 2013 apparently contributed decisively to prevent a new American military intervention in the Middle East, and brought Russia and its leader world-wide public attention, unknown since the collapse of the Soviet Union. According to the well-known American political analyst George Friedman, for the first time since the early 1990s, the Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov was able to sit with US State Secretary Kerry as an equal.
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- Friday, 17 January 2014, 07:55
What Kind of Sovereignty? Examining Alternative Governance Models in the South Caucasus[Over] 8th Workshop of the PfP Consortium Study Group “Regional Stability in the South Caucasus”
On 07-09 November 2013, Mr. George Niculescu, the Head of Research of the European Geopolitical Forum, attended the 8th Workshop of the PfP Consortium Study Group “Regional Stability in the South Caucasus”, held in Reichenau (Austria). Mr. Niculescu moderated the panel on “Alternative Models of Sovereignty in Practice” aiming to propose practical solutions for “joint political and administrative” governance in the South Caucasus. Distinguished panelists from Armenia, Azerbaijan, Germany and the United Kingdom put forward their thoughts on the subject, while the audience consisting of officials and experts from regional and international think tanks, education institutions, and civil society actively debated panelists’ proposals. Mr. Niculescu concluded that: “Rather than trying to impose unilateral solutions involving the final status of the unrecognized political entities in the South Caucasus, regional states and relevant international actors should rather focus creative energies on setting up transitional processes aimed at achieving multilateral governance over the regional commons. Moreover, as suggested by lessons learned in the Western Balkans, region building strategies should effectively complement international efforts for conflict transformation. However, a champion for regional integration is still missing in the South Caucasus. Potentially, the EU could revitalize its involvement in strengthening regionalism in the South Caucasus in strategic coordination with Russia and Turkey“. Click here to see an outline of the workshop and here to see the ensuing policy recommendations.
- Thursday, 16 January 2014, 14:57
On the CSTO priorities in ensuring stability in Central Asia in terms of the withdrawal of coalition forces from Afghanistan[Over] By Major-General, Doctor of Political Science, Hayk Kotanjian
Guest contributor to EGF
On October 10 2013, within the framework of the Kyrgyz Republic’s chairmanship in the CSTO, an academic-practical conference “Afghanistan 2014: Prospects of the situation in the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, challenges and threats to security in Central Asia in the context of the withdrawal of main contingents of the International security assistance force" took place in Bishkek. Experts from 27 countries, as well as from the CSTO, NATO, the UN, the OSCE, the EU, the SCO, the ICRC and other international organizations attended the conference. READ MORE
- Saturday, 19 October 2013, 06:58
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