By George Niculescu,
Head of Research, The European Geopolitical Forum

In November 2012, the German Marshall Fund of the United States and the Center for a New American Security published a series of papers built upon the "global swing states" concept launched by Daniel Kliman and Richard Fontaine in a report on: "Global Swing States: Brazil, India, Indonesia, Turkey and the Future of International Order". READ MORE

• George Niculescu  |  Published on EGF: 25.03.2013  |  Security
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during March 1-15th 2013
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst

Key Points:

• Talks continue between Ocalan and the government, with a ceasefire being mentioned ahead of the March 21 Nevruz holiday.
• The autonomy of Kurdish fighters in Syria and Iraq leave Ankara anxious of the PKK exploiting increasingly fluid borders should peace talks fail.
• Turkey continues to avoid direct military intervention in Syria’s civil war, although fear of the conflict spreading has the country on edge.
• Ratings agencies think Turkey’s ability to cut its current-account deficit will fade over 2013. The central bank’s use of foreign cash in its monetary policies leaves the economy open to global shocks.
• Reliance on energy imports is fueling the growing account deficit, and Turkey’s lack of storage infrastructure prevents the country from sitting on supplies for later use.
• Turkey’s eastern provinces may hold shale gas deposits, while NABUCCO and TANAP’s intelligence sharing agreement will help diversify the country’s import markets

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 21.03.2013  |  External Relations
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ISSUE # 09
03/18/2013
On 13 March 2013, European Commissioner for Enlargement and European Neighbourhood Policy Stefan Fuele said in a speech to the European Parliament that the matter of selective justice in Ukraine is critical to the relations between Brussels and Kiev. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 20.03.2013  |  External Relations
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ISSUE # 08
03/11/2013
On 6 March 2013, the Supreme Administrative Court of Ukraine decided to strip ex- Prime Minister Yuliya Tymoshenko's lawyer and opposition Fatherland faction MP, Serhiy Vlasenko, of his seat in parliament. In particular, the court ruled that Vlasenko had been illegally combining his jobs as a lawyer and an MP. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 13.03.2013  |  External Relations
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during 16-28 February 2013
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst

Key Points:

• Negotiations over constitutional reform continue, with an agreement over the Chief of the General staff having been reached.
• AKP negotiators continue to push for a more powerful presidency, but opposition parties fear a lack of legislative and judicial checks on the office.
• Talks continue between the government and PKK leader Ocalan, though decades of conflict make a political solution remote in the short-term.
• A tense standoff in northern Syria between Kurdish and Arab fighters resembles similar conflicts for Kurdish minorities in other countries around the region. Ankara hopes that an agreement can be reached to keep northern Syria from becoming a PKK safe haven.
• An Israel-Turkey pipeline is impossible without Erdogan’s permission. Turkish energy firms specify their commitments in Iraq while trying to navigate the impasse between Erbil and Baghdad.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 12.03.2013  |  External Relations
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ISSUE # 07
03/04/2013
The EU-Ukraine summit was held in Brussels on 25 February 2013. In the course of the meeting the sides discussed the prospects for signing the association agreement at the Eastern Partnership summit in Vilnius in November. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 06.03.2013  |  External Relations
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A Snapshot of Key Developments in the External Relations of the Russian Gas Sector
by Jack Sharples, EGF Associate Researcher on the external dimensions of Russian gas

Key points:

• Gazprom Gazprom expects gas prices for its European exports to fall by an average of 14 percent in 2013, as it prepares to grant $4.7bn in price discounts over the next year.
• Ukrainian wholesale gas importer Naftogaz refuses to pay a $7bn bill from Gazprom for unused gas in 2012, and challenges the take or pay terms of the Naftogaz-Gazprom contract.
• Nord Stream AG receives a construction permit for the pipeline’s final onshore German section, although plans for Nord Stream’s expansion are already facing delays.
• Gazprom increases its estimates of the cost of South Stream, with plans for extra investment in the pipeline’s onshore Russian section.
• Gazprom takes a final investment decision on its Vladivostok LNG terminal, with the Asia-Pacific region being the target market, while yet another meeting with China’s CNPC concludes without the announcement of concrete progress towards finalising Russian gas supplies to China.
• Gazprom’s export monopoly comes under further pressure, as Rosneft President, Igor Sechin, calls for the liberalisation of Russia’s gas exports.
• Celebrations of Gazprom’s 20th anniversary are overshadowed by the passing of its former-Chairman, Rem Vyakhirev.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 04.03.2013  |  External Relations
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ISSUE # 06
02/25/2013
Ukraine has until May to show substantial progress in meeting conditions mentioned by the EU in the December conclusions of the EU Council of Ministers, the Interfax-Ukraine news agency has quoted the European External Action Service as saying on 21 February. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 27.02.2013  |  External Relations
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during February 1-15th 2013
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst

Key Points:

• Domestic politics heat up as the opposition CHP accuses Prime Minister Erdogan of authoritarianism in seeking the presidency after his term as prime minister is up.
• A judicial reform aimed at clarifying aspects of Turkish terrorism laws aims to placate EU critics and could lead to the release of hundreds of imprisoned activists.
• Turkey continues to try to avoid a direct military intervention into Syria’s civil war, though fears of the sectarian conflict’s spread has the country on edge.
• U.S. sanctions aimed at Iran’s nuclear program necessitate Turkish efforts at diversifying its energy reliance away from Tehran.
• Israel makes overtures to Ankara regarding a natural gas pipeline in the eastern Mediterranean.
• ….while construction is set to begin on the TANAP gas pipeline following ratification of the agreement by both Turkish and Azerbaijani parliaments.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 22.02.2013  |  External Relations
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ISSUE # 05
02/18/2013
On 13 February 2013, the government approved an action plan on Ukraine's integration into Europe for this year. According to First Deputy Foreign Minister Ruslan Demchenko, the plan specifies the actions that need to be taken to strengthen cooperation in trade, justice and security and improve Ukraine's business and investment climate. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 21.02.2013  |  External Relations
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