Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during April 16 th - May 15th 2013
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst

Key Points:

• Domestic politics heat up as the opposition CHP accuses Prime Minister Erdogan of authoritarianism in seeking the presidency after his term as prime minister is up.
• A judicial reform aimed at clarifying aspects of Turkish terrorism laws aims to placate EU critics and could lead to the release of hundreds of imprisoned activists.
• Turkey continues to avoid direct military intervention into Syria’s civil war, though fears of the sectarian conflict’s spread has the country on edge.
• U.S. sanctions aimed at Iran’s nuclear program necessitate Turkish efforts at diversifying its energy reliance away from Tehran.
• Israel makes overtures to Ankara regarding a natural gas pipeline in the eastern Mediterranean, while TANAP is set for construction to begin following ratification of the agreement by both Turkish and Azerbaijani parliaments.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 18.05.2013  |  External Relations
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A Snapshot of Key Developments in the External Relations of the Russian Gas Sector
By Jack Sharples, EGF Associate Researcher on the external dimensions of Russian gas

Key points:

• Negotiations between Russia and Lithuania over their gas relationship and the unbundling over LietuvosDujos continue; Polish Treasury Minister and PGNiG Chief Executive are sacked as a result of a EuRoPolGaz-Gazprom agreement to investigate the possible expansion of the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline
• Gazprom boycotts a high-level roundtable held by Ukrainian and EU representatives on the future management and development of Ukraine’s gas transport system, and warns European energy companies against reselling Russian gas back to Ukraine, as Ukraine continues to seek alternatives to Russian gas imports
• Gazprom and Gasunie agree to investigate the possibility of expanding the Nord Stream gas pipeline, with Gazprom eyeing an increase in gas exports to the British market, despite the current under-utilisationof the existing Nord Stream pipeline
• Gazprom announces that the spatial planning and Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) reports for South Stream in Slovenia are almost complete and that construction could begin next year; Bulgarian government announces a review of South Stream, but pledges to continue with the project; Construction of the Serbian section of South Stream could start by the end of 2013, rather than in 2014 as planned
• Gazprom announces its 2012 financial results; Rosneft continues to challenge Gazprom in the sphere of gas exports by announcing talks with ExxonMobil over the construction of an LNG export terminal in Russia’s Far East; Beltransgaz to be renamed Gazprom Transgaz Belarus to reflect Gazprom’s takeover

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 16.05.2013  |  External Relations
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during April 1-15th 2013
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst

Key Points:

• Turkey and Israel take small steps in resuming normalized relations. Both are to formalize financial compensation for the Mavi Marmara incident, while Turkey is leaning on the victims’ families to drop their court cases against Israeli military personnel.
• NATO is set to benefit from the reset which allows Israel’s participation in alliance activities as a member of the Mediterranean Dialogue.
• Energy cooperation brings Turkey and the KRG of Iraq closer in spite of Baghdad’s objections. Turkish-Anglo firm Genel is set to profit from its early investments into the oil fields in the Kurdish north of Iraq.
• A cease fire continues to hold between the government and PKK, though Kurdish fighters are reluctant to give up their arms until a formal peace deal is agreed to. AKP leadership on the issue is causing splits in the main opposition CHP, with a nationalist camp opposed to the talks causing a pronounced rift to emerge in the party.
• A Turkish pianist is charged with hate speech for incendiary remarks against Muslims on his Twitter account. His conviction and other cases of free speech prosecutions are a dark stain on the AKP’s otherwise impressive governing record.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 27.04.2013  |  External Relations
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ISSUE # 14
04/22/2013
On 18 April 2013, the European Parliament decided to extend the monitoring mission headed by former European Parliament President Pat Cox and former Polish President Aleksander Kwasniewski. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 25.04.2013  |  External Relations
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ISSUE # 13
04/15/2013
The EU welcomes the pardoning of former Ukrainian Interior Minister Yuriy Lutsenko, the EU high representative for foreign affairs and security policy, Catherine Ashton, and the EU commissioner for enlargement and neighborhood policy, Stefan Fule, said on 8 April 2013. The EU officials added that Brussels was anticipating Kiev's decision on the remaining cases of what it saw as selective justice. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 19.04.2013  |  External Relations
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ISSUE # 12
04/08/2013
On 7 April 2013, President Viktor Yanukovych pardoned former Interior Minister Yuriy Lutsenko. The pardon application was referred to the president by ombudsman Valeriya Lutkovska. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 12.04.2013  |  External Relations
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during March 16-31 st 2013
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst

Key Points:

• A cease fire is declared by PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan to coincide with the Kurdish New Year. PKK fighters cross into Iraq, though the next steps in the process remain unclear.
• Leftist militants attack the Ministry of Justice and AKP headquarters in Ankara while Erdogan visits Denmark. Prime Minister pins the blame on the “Deep State”.
• Israel officially apologizes for the Mavi Marmara incident and promises to compensate the victims’ families. Full diplomatic relations are restored between the once close allies and Erdogan offers a conciliatory note on his huge diplomatic success.
• Iraq and Turkey continue to work on planning a Basra-Ceyhan oil pipeline despite rift over Iraqi-Kurdistan. In apologizing to Turkey, Israel’s future for cooperating with Turkey on a gas pipeline project looks bright

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 09.04.2013  |  External Relations
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A Snapshot of Key Developments in the External Relations of the Russian Gas Sector
By Jack Sharples, EGF Associate Researcher on the external dimensions of Russian gas

Key points:

• Lietuvos Dujos confirms its decision to spin off its gas transport business by the 31st of July 2013, with Gazprom and E.On expected to sell their stakes in the Lithuanian gas utility by October 2014; Gazprom agrees a deal with the Czech-based MND Group to construct a new underground gas storage facility in the Czech Republic by 2016; Gazprom signs a long-term gas supply contract with Serbia; Gazprom denies reports that it has offered to fund the restructuring of Cypriot banks in exchange for gas exploration rights in Cyprus’ exclusive economic zone
• Gazprom is unlikely to offer significant gas price cuts to Ukraine, as the company dismisses Ukrainian plans to import more gas from other European sources; The European Commission supports the idea of a trilateral consortium including Naftogaz, Gazprom, and European energy companies to manage Ukraine’s gas transport system
• Nord Stream has operated at just 27 percent of its capacity since the launch of the second string in October 2012
• Gazprom is reportedly considering constructing a spur of South Stream to Greece, but stands by its decision to remove the Greece-Italy connection from the project. The fate of South Stream’s spur to Greece may well be decided by the outcome of the privatisation of Greece’s national gas utility, DEPA, in which Gazprom is considering bidding for a stake
• Gazprom and the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) sign a Memorandum of Understanding on gas supplies via the Eastern route, and hope to sign a gas supply contract by the end of 2013
• Russia’s Energy Ministry supports proposals for the export of LNG by Novatek and Rosneft to the Asia-Pacific region, but insists that Gazprom retains its monopoly on gas exports to Europe; Gazprom to complete its purchase of Kyrgyzstan’s national gas system by the end of March.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 09.04.2013  |  External Relations
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ISSUE # 11
04/01/2013
On 25 March 2013, the government approved a plan to adapt Ukrainian laws to EU legislation. According to the plan, Ukraine is expected to pass a number of legal acts to liberalize visa regulations with the EU and sign the association agreement in 2013. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 03.04.2013  |  External Relations
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In a recently hosted international panel by Voice of Russia America to discuss the second anniversary of the conflict in Syria, Mikhail Roschin, EGF Affiiated Expert on radical Islam in the North Caucasus and Central Asia speaks about the national uprisings that put Syria on the path to civil war and so far more than 70,000 people have been killed in the violence between rebel opposition groups and the regime of President Bashar al-Assad. To listen to this discussion, please click here.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 03.04.2013  |  Security
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