By Eugen Iladi, Independent Expert

The dramatic events in Tunisia and Egypt, where long-serving presidents have been ousted within weeks of each other by “street-led people’s revolts”, are inspiring demonstrators in other Muslim countries to demand structural political change. Libya is currently gripped by deep political crisis, as is the tiny Gulf Monarchy of Bahrain, whilst revolts are ongoing in Yemen, Morocco and Iran. Furthermore, Algeria seems to be one of the next countries possibly hanging in the balance, where the prospect of regime change must now be a question of serious concern.
Algeria is a country of vital importance both to the stability of the wider-Maghreb and Sahel-Sahara region as well as to European interests. The country is a major energy supplier to international markets. Sonatrach, Algeria’s national oil and gas champion is crucial to the country's ability to generate public revenues and any disruption would simply lead to more strife in the country. Sonatrach and Algerian oil and gas resources are important not just to Algeria: the European Union's security of energy supplies, U.S. energy interests, as well as Russia's energy investments all stand to suffer if Algeria becomes unreliable. Add to that fears of an Islamist resurgence in the country and, worse, the existing Al Qaeda threat in the Maghreb, and we are witnessing a very volatile concoction in a region not far removed from civil war and unresolved border disputes. READ MORE

• Eugen Iladi  |  Published on EGF: 25.04.2011  |  Security
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By Hrvoje Ćiković, Expert on EU Integration, Energy Security and New Diplomacy

In recent years energy security has become not only a political buzzword but a fundamental concept in (re)shaping relations between governments within the framework of a newly emerging global energy order. Furthermore, factors such as the growing asymmetrical dependence of energy consuming states on producing states, the delicate question of transport (particularly the definition of future pipeline routes), changing trends of economic development, and geopolitical tensions tend to distort established negotiating positions and shift the balance of global power relations. In such a complicated context, it is easy to overlook developments in countries such as Poland which are not in the international spotlight. As Poland has shown resilience in avoiding recession and is becoming an important player in the international arena, it may be interesting to examine the actual dynamics and the core challenges of the country’s energy sector. READ MORE

• Hrvoje Ćiković  |  Published on EGF: 25.04.2011  |  Energy
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Mikhail Roshchin, EGF Affiliated Expert

While many in Russia have become accustomed to gas disputes with Ukraine as the flagship event hailing in the New Year, the start of 2011 brought with it a far more tragic security crisis when a major bomb blast ripped through the crowded halls of Moscow’s Domodedovo airport. The attack occurred in the arrivals area of the airport at 4.32 pm, on 24 January 2011, claiming the lives of 36 individuals and injuring 116 more. An act of terrorism was immediately assumed by many security experts, possibly involving a suicide bomber, who employed an explosive device containing 5-7 kilogrammes of Trinitrotoluene (TNT). Among the victims was Anna Yablonskaya, a 29-years-old Ukrainian playwright and poet who had come to Moscow to receive a prize from the magazine Art of the Cinema for her recent play. This attack follows the March 2010 suicide bombing in which two women, originally from Dagestan, blew themselves up in Moscow’s underground causing the death of 40 commuters. As was the case in the March 2010 attack, separatist-terrorists from the Russian North Caucasus were suspected of involvement in the Domodedovo attacks. These suspicions appeared to be confirmed earlier this month, when Chechen rebel leader, Doku Umarov, claimed responsibility for the bombing on February 4. In his video broadcast confirming responsibility for the attack, Umarov justified his actions on the basis of Russian state policy in the North Caucasus. READ MORE

• Mikhail Roshchin  |  Published on EGF: 25.04.2011  |  Security
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ISSUE #13
04/18/2011

On 12 April 2011, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin paid an official visit to Ukraine. During the visit, the Russian premier met with his Ukrainian counterpart Mykola Azarov and Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 19.04.2011  |  External Relations
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Russia tries to revive the Russian Empire by means of the Customs Union – experts

Prior to this week’s visit of Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin to Ukraine, the Gorshenin Institute asked experts to answer the following question: “What is more beneficial to Ukraine – setting up a free trade area with the EU or joining the Customs Union with Russia?” READ MORE

• Gorshenin Institute  |  Published on EGF: 19.04.2011  |  External Relations
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Ukraine’s European integration does not confront country’s Euroasian Pace - experts

The Gorshenin Institute has conducted a round table discussion called “Setting up Free Trade Zone with Europe or Joining Customs Union with Russia: what Brings Ukraine more Benefit?” The attending experts said that the Customs Union consisting of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan may impose restrictions on import of Ukrainian goods if Ukraine signs a Free Trade Deal with the European Union. However, sectoral agreements with the Customs Union’s members may become a plausible alternative to full membership. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Institute  |  Published on EGF: 19.04.2011  |  External Relations
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March 2011
Key points:

• In the Ergenekon case, arrests by the government on vague charges reappear, this time targeting journalists and authors. Recently two journalists were detained based on secret evidence that security officials say cannot be revealed at this time.
• Ankara continues to practice ‘Strategic Depth’ foreign policy but has largely been left behind in the Western intervention in Libya. As Syria is rocked by protests and consequent crackdowns, Turkey is largely silent, preaching stability as the top priority for the region.
• Turkey rebuffs Russian demands on a South Stream guarantee while the EU’s head of Energy, Günther Oettinger, warns Russia against intimidating Central Asian suppliers of Nabucco.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 14.04.2011  |  External Relations
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ISSUE #12
04/11/2011

Another round of the talks on setting up a free trade area (FTA) between Ukraine and the EU has been held in Brussels. During the negotiations, the parties continued their discussion of institutional, general and concluding articles of an agreement. They also exchanged opinions regarding the prospects for reaching a deal on unresolved issues. Additionally, both parties reaffirmed their intention to complete the talks on signing an EU-Ukraine association agreement in 2011 and agreed to conduct the next round of negotiations in June 2011. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 13.04.2011  |  External Relations
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ISSUE #11
04/04/2011

The leader of the Fatherland party, Yulia Tymoshenko, believes that the current government policy makes Ukraine's integration into the European Union (EU) impossible. "If the Ukrainian government continues to destroy freedoms and liberties of people, ruin democracy, justice, freedom of speech - everything that Europe perceives as a foundation for reforming the life of society - we cannot count on either visa-free travel or Ukraine's joining a free trade area (FTA) with the EU or an association agreement between Ukraine and the EU," she said. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 05.04.2011  |  External Relations
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Almost half of Ukrainians ready for protest actions - poll

The Gorshenin Institute held a telephone poll of public opinion between 25 and 27 March 2011 to find out the protest moods of Ukrainians. A total of 1,000 respondents aged over 18 were selected randomly in all regional centres of Ukraine, in Kiev and Sevastopol. Polling quotas are established based on respondents’ age, sex and area of residence. The sample error does not exceed 3.2%. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Institute  |  Published on EGF: 05.04.2011  |  External Relations
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