A snapshot of Turkey’s domestic and regional politics during April 2011

Key Points:

• Turkish leaders continue to navigate the ongoing “Arab Spring”, this time as it moves to Turkish borders with protests engulfing Syria.
• Turkey’s record with press freedom remains under scrutiny, as the NGO, Journalists Without Borders, condemns the country in the run-up to the June 12 elections.
• The political situation in Turkey’s southeast remains volatile, with the Turkish military breaking up large scale protests by Kurdish demonstrators in the city of Hakkari on April 25
• Suggestions by finance experts allude to the overheating of the Turkish economy, while the Turkish Central Bank’s new head moves to quell such speculation.
• The Turkish Prime Minister announces plans for an Istanbul canal that some experts say could replace the need for the country’s participation in the EU-driven NABUCCO gas pipeline project

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 01.05.2011  |  External Relations
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Ukrainians fear accidents at NPPs, − poll

A telephone poll was conducted by Gorshenin Institute on April 18 – 20, 2011, on the subject: “25 years after the Chernobyl NPP accident”. Overall 1000 respondents 18 years old and older were interviewed, based on a random sample, in all regional capitals of Ukraine, in Kyiv and Sevastopol. Regions of residence, gender and age of the respondents were used as quotas. The representation error of the poll does not exceed +/-3.2%. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Institute  |  Published on EGF: 01.05.2011  |  External Relations
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Issue 5: April 2011

A Snapshot Of Key Developments In The External Relations Of The Russian Gas Sector

On April 25 of this year Gazprom head, Alexei Miller, predicted that the price of gas sold to European gas consumers would increase to $500 per 1,000 cubic metres by the end of 2011. This suggests a price hike of almost 40 percent as currently the average European gas price is $350 per 1,000 cubic metres. While Gazprom officials do make public references to limitations to increases in the gas price, most such comments tend to refer to Russian domestic gas prices. READ MORE

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 01.05.2011  |  Energy
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Issue 4: March 2011

A Snapshot Of Key Developments In The External Relations Of The Russian Gas Sector

The dispute between the Lithuanian Government and Gazprom continues. As we wrote in the preceding issue of the Gazprom Monitor, the dispute flared up after the Russian monopoly refused to give Vilnius the same gas price discount that it grants to the other Baltic States. Consequently, the Lithuanian side is forced to pay high gas prices. In response, Vilnius is trying to use the implementation of the Third Energy Package, in relation to the gas transport system of the country, as a lever of pressure against Gazprom. In the end this may bring about both a rupture in the agreement on the privatisation of Lietuvos dujos (37 percent of which belongs to Gazprom) and the separation of control over gas transmission pipelines from companies which own them. READ MORE

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 29.04.2011  |  Energy
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By Eugen Iladi, Independent Expert

The dramatic events in Tunisia and Egypt, where long-serving presidents have been ousted within weeks of each other by “street-led people’s revolts”, are inspiring demonstrators in other Muslim countries to demand structural political change. Libya is currently gripped by deep political crisis, as is the tiny Gulf Monarchy of Bahrain, whilst revolts are ongoing in Yemen, Morocco and Iran. Furthermore, Algeria seems to be one of the next countries possibly hanging in the balance, where the prospect of regime change must now be a question of serious concern.
Algeria is a country of vital importance both to the stability of the wider-Maghreb and Sahel-Sahara region as well as to European interests. The country is a major energy supplier to international markets. Sonatrach, Algeria’s national oil and gas champion is crucial to the country's ability to generate public revenues and any disruption would simply lead to more strife in the country. Sonatrach and Algerian oil and gas resources are important not just to Algeria: the European Union's security of energy supplies, U.S. energy interests, as well as Russia's energy investments all stand to suffer if Algeria becomes unreliable. Add to that fears of an Islamist resurgence in the country and, worse, the existing Al Qaeda threat in the Maghreb, and we are witnessing a very volatile concoction in a region not far removed from civil war and unresolved border disputes. READ MORE

• Eugen Iladi  |  Published on EGF: 25.04.2011  |  Security
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By Hrvoje Ćiković, Expert on EU Integration, Energy Security and New Diplomacy

In recent years energy security has become not only a political buzzword but a fundamental concept in (re)shaping relations between governments within the framework of a newly emerging global energy order. Furthermore, factors such as the growing asymmetrical dependence of energy consuming states on producing states, the delicate question of transport (particularly the definition of future pipeline routes), changing trends of economic development, and geopolitical tensions tend to distort established negotiating positions and shift the balance of global power relations. In such a complicated context, it is easy to overlook developments in countries such as Poland which are not in the international spotlight. As Poland has shown resilience in avoiding recession and is becoming an important player in the international arena, it may be interesting to examine the actual dynamics and the core challenges of the country’s energy sector. READ MORE

• Hrvoje Ćiković  |  Published on EGF: 25.04.2011  |  Energy
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Mikhail Roshchin, EGF Affiliated Expert

While many in Russia have become accustomed to gas disputes with Ukraine as the flagship event hailing in the New Year, the start of 2011 brought with it a far more tragic security crisis when a major bomb blast ripped through the crowded halls of Moscow’s Domodedovo airport. The attack occurred in the arrivals area of the airport at 4.32 pm, on 24 January 2011, claiming the lives of 36 individuals and injuring 116 more. An act of terrorism was immediately assumed by many security experts, possibly involving a suicide bomber, who employed an explosive device containing 5-7 kilogrammes of Trinitrotoluene (TNT). Among the victims was Anna Yablonskaya, a 29-years-old Ukrainian playwright and poet who had come to Moscow to receive a prize from the magazine Art of the Cinema for her recent play. This attack follows the March 2010 suicide bombing in which two women, originally from Dagestan, blew themselves up in Moscow’s underground causing the death of 40 commuters. As was the case in the March 2010 attack, separatist-terrorists from the Russian North Caucasus were suspected of involvement in the Domodedovo attacks. These suspicions appeared to be confirmed earlier this month, when Chechen rebel leader, Doku Umarov, claimed responsibility for the bombing on February 4. In his video broadcast confirming responsibility for the attack, Umarov justified his actions on the basis of Russian state policy in the North Caucasus. READ MORE

• Mikhail Roshchin  |  Published on EGF: 25.04.2011  |  Security
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ISSUE #13
04/18/2011

On 12 April 2011, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin paid an official visit to Ukraine. During the visit, the Russian premier met with his Ukrainian counterpart Mykola Azarov and Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 19.04.2011  |  External Relations
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Russia tries to revive the Russian Empire by means of the Customs Union – experts

Prior to this week’s visit of Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin to Ukraine, the Gorshenin Institute asked experts to answer the following question: “What is more beneficial to Ukraine – setting up a free trade area with the EU or joining the Customs Union with Russia?” READ MORE

• Gorshenin Institute  |  Published on EGF: 19.04.2011  |  External Relations
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Ukraine’s European integration does not confront country’s Euroasian Pace - experts

The Gorshenin Institute has conducted a round table discussion called “Setting up Free Trade Zone with Europe or Joining Customs Union with Russia: what Brings Ukraine more Benefit?” The attending experts said that the Customs Union consisting of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan may impose restrictions on import of Ukrainian goods if Ukraine signs a Free Trade Deal with the European Union. However, sectoral agreements with the Customs Union’s members may become a plausible alternative to full membership. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Institute  |  Published on EGF: 19.04.2011  |  External Relations
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