By Shanthie Mariet D’SOUZA, PhD, founder & president, Mantraya Institute for Strategic Studies (MISS)

On September 21, the Taliban rebuffed U.S. President Donald Trump for the second time in the last nine months. A day earlier, Trump had demanded control of Bagram air base in Afghanistan and had even threatened “bad things” if his demand wasn’t entertained. The Taliban spokesperson was categorical in his September 23 reply: “We will never agree to bargain away or hand over any part of our country.” On being summoned for an emergency meeting by Emir Hibatullah Akhunzada following Trump’s comments, Taliban defence and foreign ministers and intelligence chiefs rushed to Kandahar. There were separate meetings as well among the Taliban leadership. The recent rejection of Trump’s vague threats didn’t occur in a vacuum. READ MORE

By Aytaс Mahammadova, Energy Security Expert affiliated with the Caspian-Alpine Society

The Washington Declaration of August 2025 marks a turning point for the South Caucasus, unlocking unprecedented economic opportunities through peace, open borders, and the TRIPP corridor. Enhanced trade, investment, and energy cooperation promise regional integration, job creation, and sustainable growth, positioning Azerbaijan, and Armenia as key hubs in global value chains.
The historic Washington Declaration of August 8, 2025, represents a transformative moment not only for regional stability but for the economic prosperity of the entire South Caucasus region. The establishment of sustainable peace between these two nations unlocks unprecedented economic opportunities that extend far beyond the immediate benefits of ending hostilities, creating a foundation for long-term economic integration, infrastructure development, and regional cooperation that could serve as a model for conflict resolution worldwide. The economic dividends of peace are multifaceted, encompassing direct benefits from increased foreign investment, enhanced trade relationships, and the opening of previously closed borders, as well as indirect benefits from improved regional stability, and the ability to redirect resources from defence to productive economic activities. READ MORE

By Fuad SHAHBAZOV, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

Air incursions, military drills, and escalating hybrid warfare hint at a new and alarming level of Russian aggression. Is it just for show?
Russia and Belarus held joint military drills in September. But the biennial exercises were overshadowed by something that may be more ominous — an outbreak of drone and aerial incursions across Poland and the Nordic-Baltic states that illustrate NATO members’ vulnerability to disabling attacks on fragile systems like civil airports. Zapad-2025 is an established Kremlin method of baring its military teeth to its near-neighbours. The official reason for September’s large-scale exercises is to test the ability of the two countries to repel an enemy attack, retake lost territory and secure the borders of what they refer to as their “Union State”. They have often triggered alarm across the NATO alliance, particularly in the Baltic states and Poland, which have a deep historical and recent sensitivity to Kremlin aggression. READ MORE

By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Senior Research Fellow at the APRI Armenia

Armenia and China established a strategic partnership on August 31, 2025, in the margins of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit held in Tianjin, China. The establishment of a strategic partnership with China can be seen as another step within the Armenian Government’s “balanced and balancing foreign policy” or “pivot to the world,” as first articulated by the Armenia’s Secretary of the Security Council during the 2024 Applied Policy Research Institute (APRI) Armenia Forum. As part of its “pivot to the world,” a few weeks prior to the SCO summit Armenia applied for full membership of the organization (currently Yerevan is a dialogue partner) and in spring 2025, the Armenian Parliament adopted a law on launching the process of accession of the Republic of Armenia to the European Union. READ MORE

By Sultan ZAHIDOV, Leading Advisor at the AIR Center, Baku and Senior Lecturer at the Baku State University

For decades, establishing lasting peace in the South Caucasus has been one of the most persistent challenges for regional states and international actors alike. Straddling vital geostrategic lines of Eurasia, this region has long been a geopolitical “shatter belt” — a zone where the interests of great and regional powers collide. External actors have repeatedly sought to exploit these divisions, employing “divide et impera” strategies that, rather than resolving disputes, have often exacerbated tensions. Not without reason, renowned scholar Thomas de Waal describes the South Caucasus as “the lands in between,” emphasizing its role as a crossroads of competing powers. According to Barry Buzan’s ‘overlay’ concept, the weakening and decline of great powers paves the way for the resurgence of past conflicts that had previously been de-escalated under the authority of the dominant power. Indeed, the collapse of the Soviet Union reopened the Pandora’s box of frozen conflicts, none more consequential than the Armenia–Azerbaijan conflict. READ MORE

By Fuad Shahbazov, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

The 12-day Israel-Iran war revealed new vulnerabilities in the Islamic Republic and increased tensions between Iran and its neighbour, Azerbaijan. In the aftermath of the strategic setback to Iranian nuclear and military facilities, Iran’s conservative political and security establishment began shifting focus toward perceived “close enemies” said to be complicit in the Israeli attacks. Among the primary targets of this narrative has been Iran’s northern neighbor, Azerbaijan, which Iranian state-run media and channels affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) accused of providing “intelligence support to Israel” during the strikes on nuclear, military, and civilian sites. While Azerbaijani officials categorically denied any involvement in Israeli military operations and the Iranian government did not present concrete evidence supporting its claims, the media campaign renewed tensions between Tehran and Baku, undermining a period of cautious diplomatic stability that had followed earlier disputes over Armenia and other issues. Indeed, the Iranian criticism of a growing Azerbaijan-Israel alliance is not a new phenomenon and Azerbaijan’s ties with Israel have long been a source of discontent in Azerbaijan-Iran relations. READ MORE

Ozodbek Nazarbekov, Minister of Culture of the Republic of Uzbekistan

Culture and art are the foundation of civilization, national identity, and spiritual perfection, as well as important indicators of a country’s progress. The development of these spheres, reflecting the spiritual growth of the people, their past, present, and future, requires an approach that meets the demands of the times. This is why the reforms aimed at the development of culture and art in Uzbekistan carry profound meaning and are entering a new phase. READ MORE

Samariddin Sattorov,
Chief Researcher of the Institute for Strategic and Regional Studies under the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan

In recent years, geopolitical tensions have been increasing in different regions of the world, and interethnic conflicts and contradictions on religious grounds continue to worsen.
In the context of such instability, maintaining an open and constructive dialogue between different religious and cultural groups is becoming vital. Strengthening religious tolerance helps to create an atmosphere of mutual understanding, respect and generosity in society, which in turn alleviates tensions and prevents the escalation of conflicts. READ MORE