By Elkhan Nuriyev, BREC Global Energy Associate, EGF Affiliated Expert

This opinion piece applies post-conflict scenario planning to the future of the regional energy security cooperation in the Black Sea-Caspian basin and describes collaborative steps that could be taken by all relevant players to think more deeply about promoting the integration of energy markets in this part of the world.
Notwithstanding the most acute unpredictability of the new societies in Eastern Europe, the South Caucasus and Central Asia in the 1990s, the young states simultaneously faced the need for intense capital investments in their energy sectors that could drive economic growth. Since then, both the Black Sea and the Caspian basin alike have become crossroads for increased commerce and economic development as the old Silk Road is revived. READ MORE

by George Vlad Niculescu, Head of Research, the European Geopolitical Forum

How could the EU best deal with a revisionist Russia who challenged the post-Cold War European security order, most notably in Ukraine and in Georgia? We should probably start from considering EU’s current strategic options in its Eastern Neighbourhood.  The key question here is what should be the EU’s objective in this contested region? Is it to find a compromise solution with Moscow on how to fix the broken security order? Or is it to defend its shared values in the Eastern Neighbourhood, and to eventually annihilate the Russian power and influence? READ MORE

Mehmet Ogutcu
EGF Affiliated Expert

LONDON - As the world is preparing to leave 2016 behind as a year fraught with political surprises, financial crises and market volatility, governments and businesses including those in Turkey have started to set their eyes on what the next 12 months have in store for them politically and economically. 

Clearly, global risks are more elevated and more interconnected than we have ever seen before and demand a proactive and integrated response to address potential impacts. To refresh your memory, since the end of the Bretton Woods order in the 1970s, there have been serious financial crises every seven years over the past 40 years: 1987, 1997, 2007.  If you ask me whether the global crisis which has been brewing in the last few years could erupt in 2017, my answer would be yes. READ MORE

Interview with Azenglishnews.com by George Vlad Niculescu, Head of Research, the European Geopolitical Forum

I would hope to see the year 2017 becoming a watershed in the Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) conflict resolution. To that end, one essential requirement is for the conflicting parties to identify a political compromise that would underpin the conclusion of a peace agreement on Nagorno-Karabakh. It is deemed widely that the inability to produce a resolution on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict so far was, to a large extent, linked to the dilemma regarding the prevailing legal and political principles that would be applicable. READ MORE

Snapshot analysis by Ben McPherson, Principal Editor, European Geopolitical Forum

In May 2014 an important initiative, the Central Asian Nuclear Weapon Free Zone, or CANWFZ, was enshrined by the actions of five nuclear states—the United States, the United Kingdom, France, China and Russia—as they signed a Protocol agreeing to respect the non-proliferation framework. The idea has been discussed since at least 1993, when the President of Uzbekistan, Islam Karimov, proposed it at the UN General Assembly. READ MORE

Ahmed Mousa Jiyad,
EGF Affiliated Expert

Following closely after the ground-breaking Turkey-Russia gas export/pipeline MoU announced last week, another agreement was publicized between the Iraqi government and the KRG that could send additional KRG gas to Turkey. Some argue that, if the KRG ramps up and exports significant volumes, it could pose problems for Putin’s new plan. EGF Affiliated Expert Ahmed Mousa Jiyad explains why this is unlikely. READ MORE

George Vlad Niculescu,
Head of Research, the European Geopolitical Forum

Just like other parts of Eurasia, the South Caucasus is facing the challenge of a renewed East-West geopolitical competition underpinned by three evolving challenges: 1) a growing ideological gap between Russia and the West; 2) the chronic persistence of protracted conflicts; 3) the dilemma of post-Soviet states: European vs. Eurasian integration. More specifically, the South Caucasus geopolitical landscape is shaped by: READ MORE

Vasilije Boskovic,
EGF Guest Contributor

Montenegro is the only former Yugoslav republic where there was no change of government since 1989. The same political party, the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS), has ruled for 25 years consecutively. The party is led by Prime Minister Milo Djukanovic, who was also president of the Republic of Montenegro from 1998 to 2002. What are the reasons the same political elite can hold onto power for more than two decades? READ MORE
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