George Vlad Niculescu,
Head of Research, the European Geopolitical Forum

Just like other parts of Eurasia, the South Caucasus is facing the challenge of a renewed East-West geopolitical competition underpinned by three evolving challenges: 1) a growing ideological gap between Russia and the West; 2) the chronic persistence of protracted conflicts; 3) the dilemma of post-Soviet states: European vs. Eurasian integration. More specifically, the South Caucasus geopolitical landscape is shaped by: READ MORE

Vasilije Boskovic,
EGF Guest Contributor

Montenegro is the only former Yugoslav republic where there was no change of government since 1989. The same political party, the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS), has ruled for 25 years consecutively. The party is led by Prime Minister Milo Djukanovic, who was also president of the Republic of Montenegro from 1998 to 2002. What are the reasons the same political elite can hold onto power for more than two decades? READ MORE
Click here to read also "Protest virus appears contagious in Bosnia".

Dr Radu Dudau,
director of the Energy Policy Group Bucharest (EGF Information Partner)

Romania’s most important foreign energy policy project, the Nabucco gas pipeline, collapsed in June 2013 as the rivaling TAP (Trans-Adriatic Pipeline) won the bidding for transporting Azerbaijani gas to the EU. Hence, the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC) will link the Caspian Basin to Southern Italy via Turkey, Greece, Albania, and the Adriatic Sea. Shah Deniz consortium’s choice was predominantly commercial, yet it came to the detriment of Eastern Europe’s strategic necessities. But, although left with no large scale international project, Romania keeps significant options to improve its energy security on the medium term. This paper reviews Romania’s prospective new sources –internal and external – of primary energy. READ MORE

Ben McPherson,
EGF Eurasian politics researcher

In a recent letter to the European Geopolitical Forum, HE Vladimir Norov, the ambassador of the Republic of Uzbekistan in Belgium, highlighted the robust economic development his country has enjoyed since the turn of the millennium. In addition, he described government priorities for 2014 aimed at continuing the boom. READ MORE

George Vlad Niculescu,
Head of Research, The European Geopolitical Forum

The Eastern Partnership Summit, held on 28-29 November 2013 in Vilnius, was supposed to highlight the progress achieved over the last four years by the EU on political association and economic integration with its eastern neighbours (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Republic of Moldova and Ukraine). Although it resulted in initialling the Association Agreements of Georgia and Moldova, and in signing a few minor agreements with other eastern partners, the summit was hijacked by the growing geopolitical competition between the EU and Russia. The primary victims of this competition have been Armenia and Ukraine, who, under strong pressure from Russia, put off their plans to sign Association and Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area agreements with the EU. Other eastern partners have also felt the cold wind blowing across Europe within their economic, energy or security relations with Russia. READ MORE

Fatemeh Shayan, University of Eshfahan, Iran
University of Tampere, Finland
Guest contributor to EGF

Do such organisations exist beyond the ‘self fulfilling prophecy’ level?
Much research has examined energy relations between the European Union (EU) and Russia,[1] but not the larger picture of energy relations between the EU and the Gas-Troika, made up of members Russia, Iran and Qatar. Although the Gas-Troika is in an early stage of development, increasing demand for gas, especially from the EU, has noticed members to attempt to present it as a future gas superpower. READ MORE

By Professor Andrei Kreutz,
EGF Adviser on Trans-Atlantic Security

During the last few weeks, the Syrian-American-Russian triangle directly or indirectly involving all Syria’s neighbors and a number of other nations, has become one of the major focuses of the political commentaries. The Russian initiative to help disarm Syria from its chemical weapons and Putin’s article which was published in the New York Times on September 11, 2013 apparently contributed decisively to prevent a new American military intervention in the Middle East, and brought Russia and its leader world-wide public attention, unknown since the collapse of the Soviet Union. According to the well-known American political analyst George Friedman, for the first time since the early 1990s, the Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov was able to sit with US State Secretary Kerry as an equal. READ MORE

George Vlad Niculescu,
Head of Research, The European Geopolitical Forum

The announcement at the beginning of September 2013, in Moscow, by President Serzh Sargsyan of Armenia's decision to join the Russia-led Eurasian Customs Union (ECU) apparently took many by surprise. Firstly, because in July 2013 Armenia concluded a lengthy four years negotiation on essential agreements, meant to upgrade its ties with the European Union (EU), which would be incompatible with joining the ECU. Secondly, because until recently (i.e. the run-up to the Vilnius Eastern Partnership summit to be held this fall) enlargement didn't seem a top priority for the ECU, the focus being more on making the customs union mechanisms effectively work for the existing membership. READ MORE