On January 24th through January 26th, 2011, Gorshenin Institute has conducted a phone survey "Explosions in Makeyevka". A total of 1000 respondents age 18 or older representing all 25 regional centers, Kiev and Sebastopol, were selected at random following a systematic procedure aimed at filling sex, age and community quotas. The margin of error is no higher then +/-3.2%. Results of the survey conducted among the residents of Makeyevka are presented separately. READ MORE

January 2011

Key Points:
• The Nabucco pipeline received several pieces of good news in January, but there is little sign of any movement towards commencement of construction works. Further, Italy’s ENI has rejected any possible suggestions that Nabucco could merge with Russia’s South Stream.

• Turkish Prime Minister, Recep Erdogan, has responded to criticisms that new laws advocating the restrictions of alcohol reflect an infringement on personal freedoms of Turkish citizens.

• The widely discussed “conspiracy” of the Sledgehammer coup plot is once again in the lime light, as prosecutors allege plans by the plotters to bomb two Istanbul mosques.

• Following the release of 5 members of the banned (Turkish) Hizbullah organisation in January, a fiery security- political debate has erupted as to whether there is a link between the AKP government and the outlawed group.

• While Istanbul hosts talks between the P5 +1 and Iran over the latter’s nuclear ambitions, Turkey sits out the meeting. A settlement on Cyprus appears impossible after Turkey and the EU sit out January talks in Geneva, with some critics saying this is the end for Turkey’s own EU accession negotiations.

• A day after Saudi Arabia halted its efforts in support of the formation of a new government in Lebanon, the joint Turkish/Qatari mission followed suit, claiming that the disputing Lebanese factions indicated reservations with external proposals to help broker a deal. READ MORE

December 2010

Key positions:
• In recent months Turkey has witnessed harsh prison sentences and threats of litigation by Turkish authorities in response to Kurdish protests and unfavourable press respectively in the past months. This is a worrying sign in that after nearly a decade in power, AKP authorities have become just as reactionary as the military backed governments of previous decades, only this time with an Islamic tinge.

• At the NATO Lisbon Summit on November 19-20, Ankara claimed victory for swaying its allies away from designating Iran as the main threat facing the alliance with regards to a proposed missile defence system which NATO is currently considering. While Turkish government officials indicated prior to the conference that they would demand command and control of the system if based on their territory, in Lisbon, that decision was put off for future discussion.

• Wikileaks’ release of American diplomatic cables have detailed the gossip and personalities of leading AKP politicians, but offered little else that could be described as damaging.

• In regional energy developments, Russia and its energy subsidiary, Gazprom, have been opting for pragmatism over threats in recent months by signing deals throughout the region with Bulgaria, Serbia, and Ukraine in order to strengthen prospects of realising the South Stream gas pipeline. Brussels and Sofia, for their part, have reached an agreement on bank guarantees for Nabucco (the EU’s rival to South Stream). READ MORE

ISSUE #19
11/19/2010

Head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission in Ukraine Thanos Arvanitis said that Ukraine had fulfilled all main obligations within the framework of the cooperation program with the IMF. Prime-Minister of Ukraine Nikolay Azarov predicts that by the end of 2010 the Board of Directors of the IMF would decide on granting Ukraine the second tranche of the loan in the amount of 1.6 billion dollars. READ MORE

Dr. Marat Terterov spoke at the International Conference, Gas Forum 2010 on 13th -14th September, 2010 in Warsaw, Poland, addressing the topic of “Old players, new identities and bargaining Instruments: A cost-benefit discussion of Southern Corridor oil and gas pipeline.” Please click here to read the key messages of the lecture and here to visit the conference program.

Online seminar has now ended
Click here to read the discussions

September 2010
John Van Pool
EGF Turkey Geopolitics Analyst

Key positions:

• British Prime Minster David Cameron’s recent speech to the Turkish Parliament, which gave strong support for Ankara’s EU membership bid, is likely to have caused more reaction from European national leaders had it been delivered in Brussels 
• Last month’s agreement between Chevron and Turkish Petroleum to explore two deep-water wells in the Black Sea is a reflection of the Turkish government’s efforts to make the country self sufficient in oil and gas production by 2023 
• Italian energy company ENI has attempted to reach a compromise for its role in the competing Nabucco and South Stream pipelines by reaching an agreement with Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan in which compressed natural gas reserves will be transported by ship across the Caspian Sea, which will provide supplies to both pipelines without alienating either project’s backers. 
• Turkey’s National Security Policy Document (also known as the ‘Secret Constitution’), which is due to be reviewed shortly, will identify energy security as the country’s most pressing strategic issue, and will remove Russia, amongst other neighbours, from the countries it would consider as potential enemies. READ MORE