In an exclusive interview with Bloomberg Adria, Dr Marat Terterov, Founder and Director of the Brussels Energy Club, and Co-founder of the European Geopolitical Forum, assessed the prospects of energy transition in Europe within a complex geopolitical context. In particular, he addressed the main challenges ahead such as: decarbonization of transports, the need for an urgent diversification of energy (in particular gas) supply sources and adjusting the energy markets to geopolitical imperatives (mainly due to EU sanctions against Russia). Regarding the latter, Dr. Terterov alluded to an older issue: “can states control markets?”. While market actors (including suppliers and consumers) do not aim to support the Russian war in Ukraine, they don’t want to become collateral damage either. Gas trading relations are usually very long term. It’s therefore still to be seen how the European gas markets actors would react to Brussels pressures to phase out Russian gas supply over the short term. Meanwhile, Russia has no interest in undermining the European energy transition, but it may be interested to maintain a share of the European gas market, at least by the time it was able to fully redirect its exports towards the East (China, Pakistan). WATCH INTERVIEW

By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Senior Research Fellow at the APRI Armenia

Armenia’s pivotal 2026 looms: a year that will test fragile peace efforts with Azerbaijan and Turkey, redefine Yerevan’s ties with the EU and Russia, and unfold amid deepening political and societal polarization.
The year 2026 could be crucial for Armenia, significantly influencing both the foreign and domestic policy trajectory of the country. Externally, the main developments to monitor are the Armenia–Azerbaijan and Armenia–Turkey normalization processes. Will the August 2025 Washington Declaration bring the restoration of all regional communications – including the opening of the Armenia-Turkey border and the signature of an Armenia-Azerbaijan peace agreement – or will it meet the fate of previous, unsuccessful attempts to establish lasting peace and security in the South Caucasus? READ MORE

By Shanthie Mariet D’SOUZA, PhD, founder & president, Mantraya Institute for Strategic Studies (MISS)

Record trade and closer ties with Taipei mark New Delhi’s shift from caution to assertiveness.
In 2024, for the first time ever, bilateral trade between India and Taiwan exceeded US$10 billion. And in the past six months alone, governments and businesses in the two countries have agreed on multipledeals that bring their semiconductor, tech, artificial intelligence, and industrial sectors even closer together, along with supply chains. These new trade partnerships support Taiwan’s “New Southbound Policy” and India’s “Act East” and “Make in India” policies, with Taiwan alone investing US$4.5 billion in India since February 2024. While the surge in Taiwanese investment in Indian companies is grounded in the economic dimension of the relationship, there is another dynamic taking place. Like most countries, New Delhi does not officially recognise Taipei. Yet its compliance with the “One China principle” – the condition set by Beijing that nations must diplomatically acknowledge there is only one Chinese government and must not establish official contacts with Taiwan – has become more nuanced. READ MORE

By Fuad SHAHBAZOV, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

Over the last decade, the development of Turkey’s defence industry has become a crucial aspect of its soft power diplomacy in both regional and global politics. The country has made significant efforts to invest heavily in the development of its indigenous defence industry, reducing its dependence on imports and becoming a leading defence exporter in global markets. The rapidly changing regional and global geopolitical landscape, particularly after the Arab uprisings, has prompted Ankara to expand the country’s defence industry and reduce its reliance on overseas arms procurement and international supply chains. Since the ruling AKP government came to power, the country’s indigenous defence industry has undergone a significant transformation, steadily becoming the twelfth-largest arms exporter, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). Given the regional instability marked by violent uprisings and sectarian conflicts, Türkiye’s pursuit of defence industry development can be understood as a primarily threat-driven strategy. This approach reflects an effort to enhance national defence capabilities and ensure strategic autonomy in response to both external security challenges and internal vulnerabilities. READ MORE

By Alan WHITEHORN, Professor Emeritus in Political Science, The Royal Military College of Canada

The collapse of the Soviet Union in the late 1980s, led to the emergence of a number of new, but vulnerable states. Russia, Belarus, and Georgia are three examples of cautionary tales. A decade and half ago in 2011, led by the charismatic opposition leader Alexei Navalny, tens of thousands of Russians gathered together in the capital city of Moscow to protest the continuing erosion of democratic safeguards and election fraud in the increasingly autocratic regime of Vladimir Putin. Tragically, Navalny’s fate proved to be poisoning, imprisonment and a suspicious death in a remote, gulag-like prison camp. READ MORE

By Jean-Marie L’HUISSIERE, independent consultant and expert on European maritime policies

While the European Union (EU) benefits today from a large regulatory acquis and from a vast experience in maritime operations and programmes, efforts must go on with regard to coordination and consistency to overcome sectoral divisions and increase efficiency. Taking up challenges and stakes in the maritime domain requires to implement concretely the integration principles and the comprehensive approach, by coordinating the use of both civilian and military resources and capabilities available to the EU. […] An initiative aiming at establishing an inter-institutional mechanism for maritime governance at strategic level opens prospects in this direction. READ MORE

By Vasif HUSEYNOV, PhD, Head of Department, AIR Center, Adjunct Lecturer, ADA and Khazar Universities, Baku

The Zangezur Corridor – recently rebranded as the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) — has become one of the most discussed and debated infrastructure projects in Eurasia. Stretching 43 kilometres through Armenia’s Syunik Province, it promises to reconnect mainland Azerbaijan with its Nakhichevan exclave and, through Türkiye, to Europe. It is a project of logistics and trade — a corridor capable of shortening cargo transit from Asia to Europe from 18 days to 12 along the Middle Corridor, reducing dependency on maritime choke points, and creating new opportunities for growth across the South Caucasus. In practice, however, the TRIPP risks becoming a stage for geopolitical contestation unless regional actors ensure that its purpose remains economic, inclusive, and depoliticized. READ MORE

By Tabib HUSEYNOV, independent policy analyst and researcher

Azerbaijan-Russia relations have experienced a series of compounding crises since early 2025, raising questions about the future of Russian influence in the South Caucasus. This paper examines the underlying causes and strategic consequences of this shift in bilateral relationship, highlighting the decline of Russia’s regional influence, alongside Azerbaijan’s emergence as a more autonomous and confident regional power. The paper argues that Azerbaijan’s evolving strategic posture, underpinned by its alliance with Türkiye, its central role in transregional connectivity projects, and its relative economic resilience, has empowered Baku to engage Moscow in a more assertive and transactional relationship. At the same time, areas of interdependence remain, particularly in trade, transport infrastructure, and close humanitarian-cultural contacts, posing both risks and opportunities. The paper concludes that the future of Azerbaijan-Russia relations will hinge on Moscow’s ability to internalize the new power realities in the South Caucasus. READ MORE