In an exclusive interview with EU Today, Dr Marat Terterov, Founder and Director of the Brussels Energy Club, and Co-founder of the European Geopolitical Forum, outlined the key economic and geopolitical implications of the current crisis and warned against further escalation or any attempt at externally imposed regime change in Iran. According to Dr Terterov, oil prices spiked by approximately 7 percent in the immediate aftermath of the strikes—an early signal of market anxiety. Although prices have since moderated, he emphasised that this stabilisation is largely based on “bets on a ceasefire” and a broad assumption that the situation would not worsen. “Most experts believe Iran lacks the military muscle to sustain an open conflict with the United States or Israel,” he said. While Tehran has voiced outrage over the strikes—carried out during ongoing nuclear negotiations—Dr Terterov cautioned against underestimating the strategic calculus behind Iran’s actions. READ MORE

By Shanthie Mariet D’Souza, PhD, founder & president, Mantraya Institute for Strategic Studies (MISS)

New Delhi likely hopes that this phase of uncertainty is only temporary.
Shock and disappointment pervade policy circles in India following U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to impose a 50 percent tariff on Indian exports to the United States. Although India has reacted cautiously with its “wait and watch” policy so far, it is expected that a more assertive response will emerge in the coming days and weeks. India and the United States have shared strong strategic ties for more than two decades. Despite highs and lows, the two countries have navigated their strategic partnership in the realm of security, space, trade, energy and technology. Trump’s tariff decision has the potential to derail a relationship built through years of negotiations and investment by both sides. READ MORE

By Vasif HUSEYNOV, PhD, Head of Department, AIR Center, Adjunct Lecturer, ADA and Khazar Universities, Baku

President Donald Trump is right to describe the U.S.-mediated summit between the Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders on August 8 in Washington as a historic event. It is historic not only for its contribution to the peace process between the two countries, but also for the significant reshaping of the South Caucasus’ security order that it has set in motion. The day after the summit, the region woke up to a new reality – one markedly different from what had existed until recently. Undoubtedly, the most significant outcome of the Washington summit for the people of the South Caucasus was the agreements signed between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The two countries initialled the peace agreement, agreed to sign it following the removal of territorial claims against Azerbaijan from Armenia’s state constitution, jointly appealed for the dissolution of the Minsk Group of the OSCE, and agreed on the opening of the Zangezur corridor. READ MORE

By Yeghia TASHJIAN, Beirut-based regional analyst and researcher, columnist, "The Armenian Weekly”

On August 8, Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev and U.S. President Donald Trump endorsed a memorandum of understanding with seven points, affirming their commitment to finalize a peace agreement. At the same time, bilateral agreements were signed between the U.S. and each country separately. According to Narek Sukiasyan, a research fellow at the Center for Culture and Civilization Studies at Yerevan State University, the clauses in the memorandum carry considerable geopolitical weight. Most directly, they mandate the disbanding of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Minsk Group, which was co-chaired by the U.S., France and Russia to help resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict peacefully. Baku has marginalized the group since 2020. READ MORE

By Yunis GURBANOV, PhD, Senior Advisor at the AIR Center, Baku

The high-level encounter between Russian and Ukrainian representatives took place on 23 July 2025 in Istanbul. Turkey hosted the encounter with significant diplomatic weight, focusing on limited ceasefire corridors, the exchange of prisoners, and grain exports through the Black Sea. Though apparently narrow in scope, the gathering represents a rebalancing in wider geopolitics. Turkey's mediating role in Istanbul facilitates Ankara's renewed desire to be at the centre of regional diplomacy, particularly considering that Turkey has just hosted Russia-Ukraine direct negotiations in 2025 as a testament to its resumed mediating interests. On the other hand, Western leaders remained unimpressed by Moscow's long-term intentions, particularly in light of Russia's unyielding ultimatums in negotiations and ongoing military belligerency, calling into question its genuine interest in arriving at a settlement other than temporary tactical respite or concession. READ MORE

By Fuad Shahbazov, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

The 12-day Israel-Iran war revealed new vulnerabilities in the Islamic Republic and increased tensions between Iran and its neighbour, Azerbaijan. In the aftermath of the strategic setback to Iranian nuclear and military facilities, Iran’s conservative political and security establishment began shifting focus toward perceived “close enemies” said to be complicit in the Israeli attacks. Among the primary targets of this narrative has been Iran’s northern neighbor, Azerbaijan, which Iranian state-run media and channels affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) accused of providing “intelligence support to Israel” during the strikes on nuclear, military, and civilian sites. While Azerbaijani officials categorically denied any involvement in Israeli military operations and the Iranian government did not present concrete evidence supporting its claims, the media campaign renewed tensions between Tehran and Baku, undermining a period of cautious diplomatic stability that had followed earlier disputes over Armenia and other issues. Indeed, the Iranian criticism of a growing Azerbaijan-Israel alliance is not a new phenomenon and Azerbaijan’s ties with Israel have long been a source of discontent in Azerbaijan-Iran relations. READ MORE

By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Senior Research Fellow at the APRI Armenia
Lara SETRAKIAN, President, APRI Armenia

Political scientists and wider civil society from Armenia and Azerbaijan don’t often see eye to eye. After decades of war between the two countries their grievances run deep, with each side blaming the other for continued rounds of conflict. But experts in Yerevan and Baku can now agree on one thing: the meeting held in Abu Dhabi on July 10 between their heads of government was a moment of respite for the South Caucasus. After months without a major meeting between the two sides (the leaders met briefly at the margins of the European Political Community summit in Tirana in May), Abu Dhabi was able to host their most comprehensive gathering in known history, attended by representatives who cover all key aspects of the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process. Still, expectations should be managed. The two sides may yet be very far from signing a peace agreement, though a draft was announced earlier this year. There are thorny issues, like border demarcation, that remain unresolved. And there are competing visions for how the future of transport links should evolve. Nonetheless, the Abu Dhabi meeting has revived the diplomatic track, giving new hope for peace and stability, while calming fears of an imminent outbreak of war. READ MORE