By Aytaс MAHAMMADOVA, Energy Security Expert affiliated with the Caspian-Alpine Society

The South Caucasus has long occupied an ambiguous place in American foreign policy, neither central to U.S. national security nor irrelevant to it. The region has historically mattered insofar as it intersected with larger geopolitical contests: between Russia and the West, between energy producers and consumers, and between stability and fragmentation along Eurasia's inner frontier. The 2025 U.S. National Security Strategy codifies a shift that will sharpen this logic, moving the United States decisively away from expansive regional engagement toward selective, interest-driven involvement. While the document does not explicitly address the South Caucasus in its regional sections, its underlying principles, such as restraint, burden-sharing, transactional-ism, and rejection of transformational agendas, will fundamentally reshape Washington's engagement with the South Caucasus states. This recalibration reflects broader strategic realities: finite American resources, diminished appetite for open-ended commitments, and recognition that regional outcomes will ultimately be determined by local power dynamics rather than external patronage. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 13.01.2026  |  External Relations
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By Tabib HUSEYNOV, independent policy analyst and researcher

Diplomatic initiatives to end the war in Ukraine are fundamentally misguided, because they seek a political solution that remains unattainable under current circumstances. International efforts should instead focus on securing a stable ceasefire that locks in the existing contact line without conditioning its achievement on impractical and damaging political concessions on Ukraine’s sovereignty or the fate of its occupied territories. The durability of such a ceasefire should rest primarily on Ukraine’s own strength, not on international peacekeepers or Russia’s goodwill.
Ukraine and Russia are locked in a grinding stalemate. Neither can achieve a decisive military victory any time soon, and neither can accept the political terms the other demands. Russian forces make incremental advances, but at the expense of staggering losses. Latest data on Russian casualties from the Ukrainian General Staff and the Ukrainian open-source mapping project Deep State suggest that between January and December 2025, Russia lost roughly 96 troops per square kilometre taken. With roughly 5,000 square km of Donetsk Oblast still under Ukrainian control, Russia would need to sacrifice close to half a million servicemen to occupy the remainder. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 13.01.2026  |  Security
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By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Senior Research Fellow at the APRI Armenia

Armenia’s pivotal 2026 looms: a year that will test fragile peace efforts with Azerbaijan and Turkey, redefine Yerevan’s ties with the EU and Russia, and unfold amid deepening political and societal polarization.
The year 2026 could be crucial for Armenia, significantly influencing both the foreign and domestic policy trajectory of the country. Externally, the main developments to monitor are the Armenia–Azerbaijan and Armenia–Turkey normalization processes. Will the August 2025 Washington Declaration bring the restoration of all regional communications – including the opening of the Armenia-Turkey border and the signature of an Armenia-Azerbaijan peace agreement – or will it meet the fate of previous, unsuccessful attempts to establish lasting peace and security in the South Caucasus? READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 22.12.2025  |  External Relations
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By Shanthie Mariet D’SOUZA, PhD, founder & president, Mantraya Institute for Strategic Studies (MISS)

Record trade and closer ties with Taipei mark New Delhi’s shift from caution to assertiveness.
In 2024, for the first time ever, bilateral trade between India and Taiwan exceeded US$10 billion. And in the past six months alone, governments and businesses in the two countries have agreed on multipledeals that bring their semiconductor, tech, artificial intelligence, and industrial sectors even closer together, along with supply chains. These new trade partnerships support Taiwan’s “New Southbound Policy” and India’s “Act East” and “Make in India” policies, with Taiwan alone investing US$4.5 billion in India since February 2024. While the surge in Taiwanese investment in Indian companies is grounded in the economic dimension of the relationship, there is another dynamic taking place. Like most countries, New Delhi does not officially recognise Taipei. Yet its compliance with the “One China principle” – the condition set by Beijing that nations must diplomatically acknowledge there is only one Chinese government and must not establish official contacts with Taiwan – has become more nuanced. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 22.12.2025  |  External Relations
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By Fuad SHAHBAZOV, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

Over the last decade, the development of Turkey’s defence industry has become a crucial aspect of its soft power diplomacy in both regional and global politics. The country has made significant efforts to invest heavily in the development of its indigenous defence industry, reducing its dependence on imports and becoming a leading defence exporter in global markets. The rapidly changing regional and global geopolitical landscape, particularly after the Arab uprisings, has prompted Ankara to expand the country’s defence industry and reduce its reliance on overseas arms procurement and international supply chains. Since the ruling AKP government came to power, the country’s indigenous defence industry has undergone a significant transformation, steadily becoming the twelfth-largest arms exporter, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). Given the regional instability marked by violent uprisings and sectarian conflicts, Türkiye’s pursuit of defence industry development can be understood as a primarily threat-driven strategy. This approach reflects an effort to enhance national defence capabilities and ensure strategic autonomy in response to both external security challenges and internal vulnerabilities. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 22.12.2025  |  Security
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By Alan WHITEHORN, Professor Emeritus in Political Science, The Royal Military College of Canada

The collapse of the Soviet Union in the late 1980s, led to the emergence of a number of new, but vulnerable states. Russia, Belarus, and Georgia are three examples of cautionary tales. A decade and half ago in 2011, led by the charismatic opposition leader Alexei Navalny, tens of thousands of Russians gathered together in the capital city of Moscow to protest the continuing erosion of democratic safeguards and election fraud in the increasingly autocratic regime of Vladimir Putin. Tragically, Navalny’s fate proved to be poisoning, imprisonment and a suspicious death in a remote, gulag-like prison camp. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 22.12.2025  |  External Relations
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By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Senior Research Fellow at the APRI Armenia

The Second Nagorno-Karabakh War in 2020 and ensuing geopolitical developments revealed the paradoxes behind Türkiye’s motivations in the South Caucasus. This report examines the main directions of Türkiye’s foreign policy in the region, building on insights from desktop research, 18 interviews, and other convening opportunities.
Key findings:

• The importance of the South Caucasus for Türkiye is underestimated. The region has strong significance for Ankara from both a geopolitical and geoeconomic perspective.
• Türkiye’s policy in the South Caucasus is, and will likely remain, based on its strategic alliance with Azerbaijan and can be articulated as an “Azerbaijan first” policy.
• Azerbaijan–Türkiye ties consist of heavy interdependencies in many fields, from political to social and economic, rather than a “big brother/small brother” dynamic. If land access from Azerbaijan to Nakhijevan—and then directly to Türkiye—via Armenia’s Syunik region is established, Türkiye may lose any incentive to continue normalization and open borders with Armenia.
• Türkiye sees Russia as “an unavoidable evil” that will remain a constant factor in South Caucasus geopolitics, and Ankara aims to manage its relationship with Moscow, establish a Russia–Türkiye condominium, and substantially limit the presence and influence of the US, the EU, and NATO in the region. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 12.12.2025  |  External Relations
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By Shanthie Mariet D’SOUZA, PhD, founder & president, Mantraya Institute for Strategic Studies (MISS)

India’s climate policy must demonstrate real achievements vis-à-vis fossil fuels while highlighting modest gains in the realm of green energy.
After attending COP30, the United Nations climate summit at the Brazilian city of Belem, India’s Environment Minister Bhupender Yadav declared on November 30 that the summit was “a significant milestone in advancing equity and climate justice.” He added that India had “achieved all its major goals at the global negotiations and its positions are reflected in all major decisions.” Despite this self-congratulatory message and India’s attempt to anoint itself as the leader of the developing world, New Delhi’s track record remains contradictory. Some impressive achievements sit alongside major loopholes in India’s climate policy and practice. As the Global South struggles to convince the developed world to play its part in climate financing, India has to do more to chart out a clear roadmap for reducing carbon footprints. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 12.12.2025  |  Energy
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By Shanthie Mariet D’SOUZA, PhD, founder & president, Mantraya Institute for Strategic Studies (MISS)

A carefully worded extradition treaty means New Delhi can hedge its bets, but it should be prepared for blowback.
"This is quite a game, politics. There are no permanent enemies, and no permanent friends, only permanent interests.” On the face of it, this adage is being turned on its head by New Delhi, which has ignored Dhaka’s December 2024 request to extradite former Bangladesh prime minister Sheikh Hasina and former home minister Asaduzzaman Khan Kamal. However, it’s not just friendship with the former prime minister that could be shaping India’s current policy towards Dhaka. As bilateral relations have dived in recent months, New Delhi could be relying on Hasina to reverse-engineer Bangladeshi politics that have slipped out of India’s sphere of influence. That strategy, however, is fraught with risks. Not only might the outcome be counterproductive, but it also raises questions about policy towards its neighbourhood, where New Delhi has constantly struggled to find a friendly foothold despite its neighbourhood first policy. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 05.12.2025  |  External Relations
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By Fuad SHAHBAZOV, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

The war in Ukraine has evolved into a complex geopolitical conflict while demonstrating the transformative role that drone technology has played in shaping the course of the war. Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the Ukrainian Armed Forces began to actively embrace modern warfare technology, especially the use of First-Person Drones (FPVs) which were critical in inflicting grave damage on Russian forces using ‘meat grinder’ tactics to storm Ukrainian front-line positions. In the past two years, Ukrainian forces have used FPV drones for real-time intelligence and reconnaissance of Russian positions and troop movements while also deploying cost-effective “kamikaze” drones to target Russian recruits, tanks, howitzers, and other armoured vehicles. Although drone technology is now a core part of Ukraine’s struggle against Russian intervention, Kyiv initially faced an acute shortage of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in the early stages of the war, while the requirements of its frontline forces were partially met by civilian drones, mostly produced by the Chinese company DJI. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 05.12.2025  |  Security
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