Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics
January 2012

Key Points:

• Russia’s Gazprom announces that the South Stream gas pipeline project will begin construction ahead of schedule in December 2012, putting NABUCCO in an increasingly precarious position.
• Turkey slips further down the rankings of the media watchdog, Reporters Without Borders, press freedom rankings, now 148 out of 178 countries. This development comes following the fifth anniversary of the killing of writer Hrant Dink and a ruling in the case of his death stating that it was not the result of organized crime.
• Former Turkish Military (TSK) Chief of Staff, Ilker Basbug, was arrested on charges of supporting websites that were part of a conspiracy to overthrow the government. The military remains quiet on the matter, indicating that the ruling AKP government has triumphed in keeping the TSK under full civilian control. But the wide swath of those accused of complicity in conspiracy investigations continues to draw criticism at home and abroad.
• Both houses of the French parliament pass a law criminalizing the denial of the Armenian genocide, with Turkish politicians voicing their outrage at the decision against a backdrop where relations between Paris and Ankara are at the lowest level in recent memory.
READ MORE

• EGF Editorial  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 21.02.2012  |  Markets
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during December 2011

Key Points:

• The TSK mistakenly bombs unarmed Kurdish smugglers near the Iraqi border, adding yet another incident that sets back Turkish-Kurdish relations and possibly fueling further violence.
• Military, economic and political ties are severed between France and NATO ally Turkey following the National Assembly’s vote to move an Armenian genocide bill forward.
• Turkey’s Central Bank sells off over $1 billion in dollars to combat rising inflation, though by month’s end the rate had surpassed 10%.
• Azerbaijan and Turkey agree to a new gas transport and supply deal for the Shah Deniz field, upsetting some in Brussels who feel the new pipeline could undermine the time consuming progress for NABUCCO. READ MORE

• EGF Editorial  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 21.01.2012  |  External Relations
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Following the earthquake on October 23, 2011, a second powerful tremor struck eastern Turkey on November 9, killing 40 people including a Japanese rescue worker and two Turkish journalists who were covering the aftermath of the October quake.
The strong quake came on top of a severe cold snap that left much of the province of Van covered in snow, as refugees in the stricken city of Ecris continued to live out of tents. READ MORE

• EGF Editorial  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 30.12.2011  |  External Relations
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during October 2011
Key Points:

• Turkey’s economy continues to flourish in comparison with other developed economies on its European periphery. The country gained over a million jobs and clocked an 11 percent growth rate in the first quarter of 2011 while its GDP grew by 8.8 percent.
• Germany’s Foreign Minister, Guido Westerwelle, leant his support to the Turkish accession bid to the EU, saying that the EU should be “fair to Turkey in the negotiation process.”
• Ankara continues its condemnation of Syrian violence against opposition and activist members, and according to a number of reports, is now hosting a group of former Syrian soldiers called the Free Syrian Army.
• A large earthquake in the Van province has exacerbated Kurdish-Turkish relations with claims of bias being leveled at the government for the manner of its response to the disaster in the mainly Kurdish region.
• Turkish Security Forces (TSK) continue their assault on PKK strongholds in Iraq after a devastating attack in mid-October that left 24 TSK soldiers dead. On October 28, police arrested a number of pro-Kurdish BDP Party members in and around Istanbul, including member of the intra-party constitutional commission, Buşra Ersanli.
• Azerbaijan and Turkey finally conclude a natural gas supply agreement following two years of negotiations, while BOTAS informs Gazprom that it will not renew a key existing gas supply contract with Russia.

• EGF Editorial  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 13.11.2011  |  Energy
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during September 2011
Key developments:

• Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan’s September is filled with tumultuous foreign policy issues, coalescing disputes with Israel, Cyprus and the world’s stance towards Somalia in his statement to the UN General Assembly.
• The prime minister visited Libya, Egypt and Tunisia in a quick tour of countries touched by the Arab Spring while continuing his condemnation of Syrian repression of civilians and rebuffing Iranian and Russian anger at Ankara’s participation in NATO’s missile shield.
• Kurdish-related violence seizes the country through terrorist attacks and military operations between PKK fighters and the Turkish military. BDP Kurdish Peace and Democracy Party parliamentary deputies end their boycott of the parliament in order to end the hostilities.
• The European Commission instigates raids on Gazprom subsidiaries on suspected competition violations, with many calling it a political move to garner support for Nabucco and undermine South Stream and Nord Stream.
• Energy major BP announces a planned pipeline from the Shah Deniz II field in Azerbaijan traversing Turkey, Romania, Bulgaria and Hungary.

• EGF Editorial  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 12.10.2011  |  Energy
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during August 2011
Key developments:

• Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan visits Mogadishu on a famine aid mission, the first visit by a non-African head of state in nearly 20 years. The trip is a huge boost to Turkey’s international image.
  
• Violence in the south-east of the country continues, leading to Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) cross-border raids into Iraq.
  
• Following criticism from the US Secretary of State, the justice ministry contradicts the number of journalists said to be held by Turkish authorities.
  
• Ankara continues to condemn the Syrian regime despite not calling for the resignation of President Bashar al- Assad. The country wins a seat at the Paris meeting of the new Libyan government following the apparent collapse of the Gaddafi regime.
  
• Azerbaijan and Turkey continue to negotiate a gas transit agreement, while Turkey’s reliance on foreign energy imports has reportedly increased 5 % since the AKP came to power.
  

• EGF Editorial  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 15.09.2011  |  Energy
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during July 2011

Key Points:

• Turkey is shaken by the abrupt early retirement of the four highest-ranking military officials in the country just prior to the August meeting of the Supreme Military Council. The generals’ resignations, requesting retirement, are in protest at the continued detention of military officers as part of the “Sledgehammer” coup plot investigation.
• The domestic political scene calms as the Republican People’s Party (CHP) ends its parliamentary boycott, although the “independent” Peace and Democratic Party (BDP) delegates continue to refuse to be sworn in.
• Despite the fact that over 10,000 Syrians have crossed the border and sought refuge in Turkey, in July Ankara maintained a muted stance towards the Syrian crackdown as no viable alternative to the Assad regime has emerged.
• Iran, Syria and Iraq announce the Islamic Gas Pipeline project that will compete with Nabucco, while Turkey and Azerbaijan continue to argue over energy issues that could threaten the progress of the Nabucco gas pipeline.
READ MORE

• EGF Editorial  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 01.08.2011  |  External Relations
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Insights into Turkish domestic and international politics during June 2011

Key Points:

• Despite the fact that the ruling AKP did not gain the electoral majority it requiredto unilaterally re-write the country’s constitution, the party continues to be the overwhelmingly dominant player in the Turkish political landscape.


• As was inevitably the case with Turkey’s position towards Libya following prolonged civil conflict in the country, Ankara’s position towards Syria is slowly but surely adjusting towards a tougher stance


• Turkey continues to keep one foot in Nabucco’s door, and the other in bilateral energy arrangements with neighbouring states. READ MORE

• EGF Editorial  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 14.07.2011  |  External Relations
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A snapshot of Turkey’s domestic and regional politics during May 2011
Key Points:

• Uprisings in the Middle East continue to make diplomacy a difficult game to master for leaders in Turkey, with Syria’s potential implosion being a matter of great concern for those in power in Ankara.


• With Parliamentary elections scheduled for June 12, and the AKP seeing stronger challenges across the political spectrum, tensions are on the rise in the country. It is unlikely, however, that the AKP will face electoral defeat.


• The Nabucco pipeline continues to be mired in uncertainty as Brussels has not been able to persuade suppliers to sign on to the project. READ MORE

• EGF Editorial  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 06.06.2011  |  External Relations
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A snapshot of Turkey’s domestic and regional politics during April 2011

Key Points:

• Turkish leaders continue to navigate the ongoing “Arab Spring”, this time as it moves to Turkish borders with protests engulfing Syria.
• Turkey’s record with press freedom remains under scrutiny, as the NGO, Journalists Without Borders, condemns the country in the run-up to the June 12 elections.
• The political situation in Turkey’s southeast remains volatile, with the Turkish military breaking up large scale protests by Kurdish demonstrators in the city of Hakkari on April 25
• Suggestions by finance experts allude to the overheating of the Turkish economy, while the Turkish Central Bank’s new head moves to quell such speculation.
• The Turkish Prime Minister announces plans for an Istanbul canal that some experts say could replace the need for the country’s participation in the EU-driven NABUCCO gas pipeline project

• EGF Editorial  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 01.05.2011  |  External Relations
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