By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has led to a significant influx of Russian IT specialists into Armenia, boosting the sector and contributing to the country's economic recovery.
The growth of IT has become a synonym for Armenia’s development in the last decades. Given that the country has had a rather strong position in the IT sector since the collapse of the Soviet Union, it appears to be natural to observe the industry flourishing. In the 2000s, the primary agents of change were the branches of multinational companies, such as Synopsys Armenia and others. In recent years, the focus has shifted towards establishing a vibrant and thriving start-up ecosystem. Not even the economic slowdown in 2014-2016, the political upheavals of 2018, the Covid-19 Pandemic, and the 2020 war in Nagorno Karabakh did stop the growth of the IT sector in Armenia.
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EGF Editor |
Опубликовано на EGF: 13.11.2023
| Markets
By Vasif HUSEYNOV, PhD, Head of Department, AIR Center, Adjunct Lecturer, ADA and Khazar Universities, Baku
On October 4, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev cancelled a meeting with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, European Council President Charles Michel, French President Emmanuel Macron, and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz that was meant to take place at the European Political Community summit in Granada, Spain, on October 5. The Granada summit was a long-awaited occasion in the context of the Armenian-Azerbaijani peace talks, particularly against the backdrop of the collapse of the separatist regime in Azerbaijan’s Karabakh region. Baku has instead voiced its support for more regionally centric negotiating formats for solving disputes in the South Caucasus.
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EGF Editor |
Опубликовано на EGF: 04.11.2023
| External Relations
By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies
Since the launch of the first Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh) war in the 1990s, the region’s status has been at the core of the conflict. This issue was the primary focus of negotiations and different settlement options put forward by the OSCE Minsk Group—package solution, phased approach, Common State, Key West, Kazan document, Lavrov plan—which all tried to find a mutually acceptable solution for the status of Artsakh. At the end of the day, Azerbaijan decided to solve this issue by military force. Azerbaijan probably came to this decision in the early 2000s, hoping it could get more by deploying military force than by any negotiated solutions. Azerbaijan was cautiously waiting for the geopolitical window of opportunity, which appeared in 2020 as a combination of the COVID-19 pandemic, elections in the U.S. and growing misperceptions of Armenia-Russia relations after the 2018 Velvet Revolution.
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EGF Editor |
Опубликовано на EGF: 04.11.2023
| Security
By Yeghia TASHJIAN, Beirut-based regional analyst and researcher, columnist, "The Armenian Weekly”
On September 28, 2023, Artsakh President Samvel Shahramanyan issued a decree announcing that, in the wake of Azerbaijan’s assault on Artsakh, the authorities of Artsakh agreed to dissolve their government by the end of the year and be fully integrated into Azerbaijan.
The decree aimed: to dissolve all state institutions and organizations under their departmental subordination until January 1, 2024, and the Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh (Artsakh) shall cease to exist; the population of Nagorno-Karabakh, including those outside the Republic, after the entry into force of this decree, shall familiarize themselves with the conditions of reintegration presented by the Republic of Azerbaijan in order to make an independent and individual decision on the possibility of staying in Nagorno-Karabakh.
This was perceived as the end of the Artsakh dream. However, this announcement came under the threat of force and ethnic cleansing, placing its legality in question. Moreover, most of the political and military leaders of Artsakh have been arrested by Azerbaijan, amid the passive stance of the Russian peacekeepers and the Armenian government.
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EGF Editor |
Опубликовано на EGF: 04.11.2023
| External Relations
By Yeghia TASHJIAN, Beirut-based regional analyst and researcher, columnist, "The Armenian Weekly”
On October 7, 2023, Palestinian Islamist militant group Hamas launched operation “Al-Aqsa Flood,” aiming to destroy the Israeli army positions near Gaza and capture as many soldiers as possible, in order to exchange them with the almost 7,000 Palestinians detained in Israeli prisons. The operation created a shockwave in Israeli society, killing more than 1,000 soldiers and civilians. As a result, Israelis started indiscriminately bombing Gaza, killing civilians and threatening ethnic cleansing through a land invasion. The danger that the escalation will turn into a regional conflict involving Iran and Hezbollah is high. Such a step would surely have devastating consequences for the region and a domino effect beyond the Middle East. If Israel, which is Azerbaijan’s military partner and Iran’s regional enemy, was involved in a war of attrition in Gaza or a regional escalation, it would become isolated from the events in the South Caucasus.
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EGF Editor |
Опубликовано на EGF: 26.10.2023
| Security
Interview by “Georgia Today” with Eugene KOGAN, Tbilisi-based defence and security expert
Georgia is not ready to defend itself if Moscow decides to invade again. And this is a very big weakness, one which should have been solved years ago and remains unresolved to this day…In Georgia, they don’t bother to ask themselves difficult questions…it’s something Georgian politicians seem to be averse to – Eugene Kogan, a researcher at the Vienna Institute of International Politics, an expert on defence and security issues in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, who has been living in Georgia for the past 10 years, told RFE/RL’s Georgian Service. We spoke to him about the role of Georgia in the region, territorial integrity, Karabakh, and the new war in the Middle East. We started with the Israel-Hamas conflict. READ MORE
EGF Editor |
Опубликовано на EGF: 26.10.2023
| Security
By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies
Since the 2020 Nagorno Karabakh war, diversification has probably been the most-used term in discussions about the future of Armenian foreign policy. It should be noted that Armenia has sought to pursue a diversified foreign policy since the early years of independence. In parallel with establishing a strategic alliance with Russia, Armenia has launched a pragmatic partnership with the EU and NATO. Armenia signed its first IPAP (Individual Partnership Action Plan) with NATO in 2005. NATO was actively involved in the defence reforms in Armenia accelerated after 2008, including defence education and strategic defence review. Armenia joined the EU Eastern partnership initiative in 2009. It failed to conclude the Association Agreement with Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area. Instead, it signed the Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement in 2017, now serving as the solid base for Armenia–EU relations.
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EGF Editor |
Опубликовано на EGF: 26.10.2023
| External Relations
By Eugene KOGAN, Tbilisi-based defence and security expert
In a nutshell, friendly relations between Georgia and Turkey are not a deterrent against potential Russian aggression against Georgia. Russia can always impose a blockade of Georgia’s Black Sea coast by using its naval assets in Sevastopol, Crimea and Ochamchire in occupied Abkhazia, thereby effectively ‘strangling’ the nascent Georgian Coast Guard. However, despite being somewhat politically marginalised by the West, Turkey remains a crucial partner for Georgia.
Georgian–Turkish relations are in essence cordial but not equal. Georgia’s Prime Minister, Irakli Garibashvili, is viewed as a junior partner in the relationship with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. For Georgia, Turkey represents an important partner in the volatile South Caucasus region. At the same time, enjoying friendly relations with Georgia as a transit country for oil, gas and cargo trains from Azerbaijan to Turkey, known as the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars (BTK) railway, is important for Turkey. Moreover, cargo transferred by road from Russia and Azerbaijan via Georgia to Turkey is a basic necessity. Bilateral relations are mainly focused on the economy and, occasionally, the Turkish military donates or sells military equipment to the Georgian Defence Forces (GDF). READ MORE
EGF Editor |
Опубликовано на EGF: 19.10.2023
| External Relations
By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies
On September 19, 2023, Azerbaijan launched a military offensive against the self-declared Nagorno Karabakh Republic with one clear goal – to destroy it. It was a logical continuation of Azerbaijan’s decades-long policy, including the 2020 Nagorno Karabakh war and the blockade of the Lachin (Berdzor) corridor imposed in December 2022. After 24 hours of intensive fighting, the self-declared Nagorno Karabakh Republic surrendered. A few days later, the large exodus of the Armenian population started, and by the end of September 2023, less than 100 Armenians were left in Nagorno Karabakh. On September 28, the president of the self-declared Nagorno Karabakh Republic signed a decree to dissolve the Republic by the end of 2023.
The reaction in Armenia to these events was somewhat surprising. The government made it clear that Armenia would not intervene to prevent the destruction of Nagorno Karabakh. Most Armenians went to social media, lamenting the lack of actions by Russia, the EU, and the US. Many were genuinely surprised that for Russia and the collective West, geopolitical or economic interests had more value than the fate of 100,000 Armenians who lived in Nagorno Karabakh for the last several millennia.
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EGF Editor |
Опубликовано на EGF: 19.10.2023
| External Relations
By Vasif HUSEYNOV, PhD, Head of Department, AIR Center, Adjunct Lecturer, ADA and Khazar Universities, Baku
On 28 September, the separatist regime illegally created by Armenia in the territories of Azerbaijan in early 1990s, and which presented itself as the “Nagorno-Karabakh Republic”, declared its dissolution by the end of 2023. Azerbaijan has quickly restored its sovereignty over the area that remained under the joint control of the separatists and Russia’s peacekeeping contingent following the 44-day war in 2020. This has been undoubtedly a major development not only for Azerbaijan but also for the entire South Caucasus. Many people both in the region and beyond agree that Baku and Yerevan are now much closer to a peace treaty as the crux of their decades-long conflict no longer exists.
It is important that the Armenian government shares this view and realizes the present opportunities for a real breakthrough. For instance, the speaker of the Armenian parliament Alen Simonian told Armenian public television on September 25 that “We are very close and have a historic opportunity to sign a peace agreement”. “Endless war is not beneficial for anyone”, he asserted.
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EGF Editor |
Опубликовано на EGF: 19.10.2023
| Security
EGF Head of Research, Dr. George Vlad NICULESCU, co-edited a new volume on “Understanding Contemporary Information Landscape Handbook (UCIL)” with the Austrian National Defence Academy and the PfP Consortium of Defence Academies and Security Studies Institutes: “The idea of this Handbook sprang forth from a policy recommendation issued at a past Regional Stability in the South Caucasus Study Group (RSSC SG) workshop: “Create, with the assistance of PfP Consortium volunteers, a Reference Curriculum on Media Literacy, emphasizing the impact of modern communication techniques and social media on human biology, psychology and behaviour. The aim would be to raise awareness of the media as a tool of hybrid warfare, and how to build resilience to it at individual level.” Looking with an academic eye at the final product of our last three years of work I’d conclude that this Handbook is a great success as a valuable education tool for students and teachers in media studies, politics, international relations. READ MORE
EGF Affiliated expert Benyamin POGHOSYAN appeared in a new episode of the weekly TV program “Viewpoint” where he discussed the current state of play and the prospects of Armenia-Russia relations. WATCH HERE
EGF Affiliated Expert Nika Chitadze has edited and co-authored a new book on “The Russia-Ukraine War and Its Consequences on the Geopolitics of the World”. READ HERE
EGF Affiliated expert Yeghia TASHJYAN has recently published research on: “The Battle of the Corridors: Regional Interconnectivity and the Geo-economic future of the Middle East”. He concluded that “[…] it is essential to analyse Russia’s position in the South Caucasus and the logic of “regional interconnectivity” that Moscow is aiming to have land access to the Middle East. Russia views these regions from a holistic perspective, that is those regions have shared historical, cultural, and economic interactions, and are not geographically separated areas.” READ HERE
On February 7, 2023, the Founder, and former Executive Director of the EGF Dr Marat TERTEROV moderated, and the Head of Research, Dr George Vlad NICULESCU participated in, the first panel of the web-conference on “The War in Ukraine: What Consequences for the Countries of Our Neighbourhood – East and South: What New Challenges for the EU?” organized by the Institute for European Studies of the Saint Louis University Brussels. Click here to read George’s speaking points, here for the conclusions (in French and in English) and here for the summary of presentations (in French only) of the web-conference.
Between 16-18 November 2023, Dr Marat TERTEROV and Dr. George Vlad NICULESCU participated in the 26th workshop of the Regional Stability in the South Caucasus Study Group of the PfP Consortium of Defence Academies and Security Studies Institutes on “New Security Arrangements for the South Caucasus”, held in Reichenau a/d Rax (Austria). Please click here for the programme and agenda outline, here for Marat’s and here for George’s speaking points.