By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

The convergence in the timing of key political processes in Armenia and Azerbaijan has heightened interest in Armenia regarding Azerbaijan's domestic developments.
The Azerbaijani President decision to move Presidential elections from October to April 2018 caught many in Armenia by surprise. The expert community put forward several clues on potential reasons for such a decision. The most discussed option was the possible deterioration of the economic situation in Azerbaijan in the second half of the year, which theoretically may complicate the re-election of Aliyev. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 05.03.2018  |  External Relations
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By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

In recent months Iran has been facing both internal and external challenges. The wave of demonstrations shook up the Islamic Republic in late December – early January 2017-2018. The expert community still has contradicting views for the main reasons of the protest movement: internal struggle between conservatives and reformists, outside meddling with main arrows targeting the US, Israel and Saudi Arabia as potential sponsors, spontaneous movement based on economic hardships and rampant corruption. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 26.02.2018  |  External Relations
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By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia
The South Caucasus is facing an infrastructure development boom. However, Armenia is in stark isolation, with no major project passing through the country.
The launch of new transit routes and transport infrastructure are key topics widely discussed within the context of the geopolitics of the South Caucasus. Since the late 1990s several new pipelines, highways and railroads have been constructed traversing the region. Given the re-emergence of Russia as a key player in the post-Soviet space, since President Putin's ascendance to power in 2000, new transport corridors and large infrastructure projects have become factors in the wider competition between Russia and western countries. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 19.02.2018  |  Markets
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By George Vlad Niculescu, Head of Research, the European Geopolitical Forum

Most international analysts agree that Western relations with Russia are at their worst in thirty years, and that they are unlikely to improve unless significant geopolitical changes are going to emerge. More recently, a new academic debate has started on whether, and how, to restore the EU-Russia dialogue to meet the interests of both parties, while trying to reconcile respect for international law with principled pragmatism into creating a new European security architecture. It might be therefore worth looking at the prospects of restoring EU-Russia dialogue through the lens of security scenario planning. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 09.02.2018  |  Security
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By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

Since 2014, the containment of Russia has been one of the most popular topics within the expert community dealing with Geopolitics and Geostrategy. This term has been actively used by the Western political circles, including high level state officials and senior leaders of NATO. The Russian officials also use this term to describe Western, and, in particular, US policy towards Moscow. However, despite emphasizing the necessity to contain Russia in the post-Soviet space, including in the South Caucasus, little if anything is being done to change the geopolitical status quo. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 09.02.2018  |  External Relations
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By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

The Afrin events are being used to assert the notion that without Russian military guarantees, and a Russian military base deployed in Armenia, Yerevan will be under a constant threat from a potential Turkish offensive.
Turkey's military operation in Afrin proved once more that in the current geopolitical situation in the Middle East nothing can be excluded. Obviously, Turkey had made its own calculations when it launched the offensive, and the muted reaction of the main players of the region can be perceived as a proof that some preliminary discussions had taken place before the start of the operation. The nonlinear relations between powers involved in the Middle East makes it really complicated to understand what lies beneath the surface in terms of motives and assessments. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 02.02.2018  |  Security
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By Stepan Grigoryan, Head, Ana­lyt­i­cal Centre for Glob­al­i­sa­tion and Regional Coop­er­a­tion, Armenia

The statement from the President of Armenia in September 2013 sounded like a bolt from the blue. He would not sign the Asso­ci­a­tion Agreement with the European Union at the planned November Eastern Part­ner­ship Summit in Vilnius, he said. Instead, Armenia would be joining the Russian led Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). This signified Armenia's departure from a multi-vector foreign policy. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 16.01.2018  |  External Relations
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By Eugene Kogan, Tbilisi-based defence and security expert

The declaration that Russia and Iran are strategic partners lacks both solid foundation and strategic perspective. Despite the sense of urgency generated by regional and global concerns, Russia and Iran have failed to establish broad-based economic, scientific, technical, educational and societal ties. In terms of arms exports, Russia still sees Iran as a customer, while Iran is doing its best to distance itself from Russia and to become self-reliant; Iran has recently turned to China in order to diversify its weapons imports away from Russia. Whether this divergence will continue remains to be seen. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 09.01.2018  |  Security
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By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

Since gaining independence in 1991 Armenia has faced tough challenges in building relations with two of its four neighbors – Azerbaijan and Turkey. Relations with Azerbaijan were mainly influenced by Karabakh conflict. Armenia was supporting Nagorno Karabakh Armenians to defend themselves against Azerbaijani aggression. The end of hostilities in 1994 and the signature of a ceasefire agreement did not bring up peace, and negotiations are still underway, for the last 23 years, to find a mutually accepted settlement. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 09.01.2018  |  External Relations
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By By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

Russian understanding of geopolitics believes in the decisive role of hard power and military might as a key component of both domestic and foreign policy. Russian-led integration projects, aim to include as many post-soviet states as possible, and once in never let them go out.
In recent years one of the main issues in post-Soviet geopolitics is the competition between Russian and EU promoted integration projects. The Eastern Partnership promoted by the EU offers closer ties with Europe through Association Agreements and the establishment of Free Trade Areas, though with no guarantees of membership into the EU. The Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union promotes integration between former Soviet Union states. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 18.12.2017  |  External Relations
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