By Eduard Abrahamyan, Wider Black Sea & Central Asia regional security analyst

The foreign ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan held four-hour-long consultations in Paris, on January 16, under the auspices of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe’s (OSCE) Minsk Group. The joint statement to come out of the meeting included telling language. In particular, the two sides acknowledged the need for “concrete measures to prepare the populations for peace”. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 14.02.2019  |  Security
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By Eduard Abrahamyan, Wider Black Sea & Central Asia regional security analyst

Despite almost two decades of fanfare regarding Georgia’s pursuit to join NATO, the North Atlantic Alliance has yet to adopt a common position on the concrete timeframe of Georgia’s eventual membership. Given NATO’s protracted, uneven handling of Georgia’s enrolment process, might Georgia be better off seeking closer bilateral relations with the United States? READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 07.02.2019  |  Security
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By Fuad Shahbazov, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

President Donald Trump’s announcement at the end of 2018 that he would withdraw U.S. troops from Syria came as a surprise to all parties involved, sparking particular concerns among America’s Syrian Kurdish allies. The move followed President Trump’s declaration of victory over ISIS after a four-year military campaign fighting alongside Syrian Kurdish forces. This sudden and unexpected decision has been widely criticized not only by allies but also inside the White House, with many analysts arguing that the U.S. withdrawal will expose the Syrian Kurds to an attack by Turkey READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 06.02.2019  |  External Relations
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By Nika Chitadze, PhD, Director, Center for International Studies, International Black Sea University, Tbilisi

As it is known, US President Donald Trump recently adopted a decision on the withdrawal of about two thousands American military serviceman from Syria. It is possible that one of the main purposes of the American contingent’s withdrawal is the restoration of closer relations between USA and Turkey and the prevention of strengthening cooperation between Moscow and Ankara. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 28.01.2019  |  Security
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By Eugene Kogan, Tbilisi-based defence and security expert

It can be ascertained that until the Russian illegal annexation of Crimea, in March 2014, the Black Sea Region was perceived as a region with certain problems, but certainly not of a military nature. As a result, this region was neither high on the international community agenda nor on the radar screen of the NATO member states, and that despite membership of Bulgaria, Romania and Turkey in NATO. Furthermore, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his government thought back in 2014 that they were capable to handle President Vladimir Putin’s Russia single-handed, NATO assistance was not required, and non-NATO members such as Georgia and Ukraine should not be involved. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 24.01.2019  |  Security
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By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

US President Donald J. Trump recent decision to withdraw American forces from Syria caught everyone by surprise: the Washington establishment, foreign policy pundits and everyone else who follow the Middle East Geopolitics. Given the top priority which President Trump has attached to the containment of Iran and curbing its activities in the Middle East, many believed that US presence in Syria should have been either expanded or at least stayed the same. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 28.12.2018  |  External Relations
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By Eduard Abrahamyan, Wider Black Sea & Central Asia regional security analyst

On October 24-26, a U.S. State Department delegation headed by National Security Adviser Ambassador John Bolton visited the South Caucasian republics after talks in Moscow. The delegation’s visit to Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia was immediately dubbed a reinvigoration of U.S. policy towards the Caucasus and a pragmatic reengagement with the conflicted region. Bolton appeared to refine the evolving U.S. priorities with each country, categorizing them in accordance with political capabilities, shared interests and the roles that Georgia, Azerbaijan and Armenia respectively seek in relations with the West. The visit, however, caused an angry reaction from Moscow, especially given the issues Bolton raised in Yerevan. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 21.12.2018  |  External Relations
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By EGF Editorial Staff

Since the end of October 2018, a new operative communication line (crisis hotline) has been established between Armenia and Azerbaijan, two countries that have been at war over the status of Nagorno-Karabakh (NK), a region recognized as Azerbaijani by the International Community, but inhabited by a majority Armenian population. According to official sources from both sides, the level of military tension on the Line of Contact (LoC) between the conflicting parties has significantly decreased (from about 90 reports of ceasefire breaches/day, to about 20 reports/day). The opening of this new communication channel had been agreed several weeks before by the president of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, and the Prime-Minister of Armenia, Nikol Pashinyan, during an informal meeting held in the margins of the CIS summit in Dushanbe (Tajikistan) on 27-28 September 2018. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 11.12.2018  |  Security
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By Fuad Shahbazov, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

On November 19, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev paid a long-awaited official visit to Belarus, where he met with his counterpart, President Alyaksandr Lukashenka. On this occasion, the Belarusian and Azerbaijani state news agencies praised the level of bilateral strategic cooperation, widely citing Lukashenka’s words to Aliyev: “Belarus has been waiting for you” (Belta, November 19). The Azerbaijani president’s trip to Minsk coincided with “growing frictions” between Belarus and Armenia, two formal allies within the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 11.12.2018  |  External Relations
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By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

The United States' decision to unilaterally withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal and re-impose sanctions on Tehran has triggered a new crisis around Iran. The Trump administration states that it does not pursue the policy of “regime change” but rather wants to get a “change of behaviour” from Tehran. However, the key American demands – withdrawal of Iranian forces from Syria, the halt of Iranian missile program and significant reduction of Iranian involvement in Iraq and Yemen – are tantamount to the capitulation. It’s obvious that if any Iranian government agrees to capitulate – that would be the shortest and safest way to domestic political turmoil which may result in regime change. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 05.12.2018
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